Noise-induced switching and extinction in systems with delay

Escape from a metastable state in non-Markovian population dynamics

We study the long-time dynamics in non-Markovian single-population stochastic models, where one or more reactions are modeled as a stochastic process with a fat-tailed nonexponential distribution of waiting times, mimicking long-term memory. We focus on three prototypical examples: genetic switching, population establishment, and population extinction, all with nonexponential production rates. The system is studied in two regimes. In the first, the distribution of waiting times has a finite mean. Here, the system approaches a (quasi)stationary steady state at long times, and we develop a general Wentzel-Kramers-Brillouin approach for these non-Markovian systems. We derive explicit results for the mean population size and mean escape time from the metastable state of the stochastic dynamics. In this realm, we reveal that for sufficiently strong memory, a memory-induced (meta)stable state can emerge in the system. In the second regime, the waiting time distribution is assumed to have an infinite mean. Here, for bistable systems we find two distinct scaling regimes, separated by an exponentially long time which may strongly depend on the initial conditions of the system.

Eco-evolutionary cyclic dominance among predators, prey, and parasites

Predator-prey interactions are one of ecology's central research themes, but with many interdisciplinary implications across the social and natural sciences. Here we consider an often-overlooked species in these interactions, namely parasites. We first show that a simple predator-prey-parasite model, inspired by the classical Lotka-Volterra equations, fails to produce a stable coexistence of all three species, thus failing to provide a biologically realistic outcome. To improve this, we introduce free space as a relevant eco-evolutionary component in a new mathematical model that uses a game-theoretical payoff matrix to describe a more realistic setup. We then show that the consideration of free space stabilizes the dynamics by means of cyclic dominance that emerges between the three species. We determine the parameter regions of coexistence as well as the types of bifurcations leading to it by means of analytical derivations as well as by means of numerical simulations. We conclude that the consideration of free space as a finite resource reveals the limits of biodiversity in predator-prey-parasite interactions, and it may also help us in the determination of factors that promote a healthy biota.

Noise-induced tipping under periodic forcing: Preferred tipping phase in a non-adiabatic forcing regime

We consider a periodically forced 1D Langevin equation that possesses two stable periodic solutions in the absence of noise. We ask the question: is there a most likely noise-induced transition path between these periodic solutions that allows us to identify a preferred phase of the forcing when tipping occurs? The quasistatic regime, where the forcing period is long compared to the adiabatic relaxation time, has been well studied; our work instead explores the case when these time scales are comparable. We compute optimal paths using the path integral method incorporating the Onsager-Machlup functional and validate results with Monte Carlo simulations. Results for the preferred tipping phase are compared with the deterministic aspects of the problem. We identify parameter regimes where nullclines, associated with the deterministic problem in a 2D extended phase space, form passageways through which the optimal paths transit. As the nullclines are independent of the relaxation time and the noise strength, this leads to a robust deterministic predictor of the preferred tipping phase in a regime where forcing is neither too fast nor too slow.

Enhancing noise-induced switching times in systems with distributed delays

The paper addresses the problem of calculating the noise-induced switching rates in systems with delay-distributed kernels and Gaussian noise. A general variational formulation for the switching rate is derived for any distribution kernel, and the obtained equations of motion and boundary conditions represent the most probable, or optimal, path, which maximizes the probability of escape. Explicit analytical results for the switching rates for small mean time delays are obtained for the uniform and bi-modal (or two-peak) distributions. They suggest that increasing the width of the distribution leads to an increase in the switching times even for longer values of mean time delays for both examples of the distribution kernel, and the increase is higher in the case of the two-peak distribution. Analytical predictions are compared to the direct numerical simulations and show excellent agreement between theory and numerical experiment.

Large order fluctuations, switching, and control in complex networks

We propose an analytical technique to study large fluctuations and switching from internal noise in complex networks. Using order-disorder kinetics as a generic example, we construct and analyze the most probable, or optimal path of fluctuations from one ordered state to another in real and synthetic networks. The method allows us to compute the distribution of large fluctuations and the time scale associated with switching between ordered states for networks consistent with mean-field assumptions. In general, we quantify how network heterogeneity influences the scaling patterns and probabilities of fluctuations. For instance, we find that the probability of a large fluctuation near an order-disorder transition decreases exponentially with the participation ratio of a network's principle eigenvector - measuring how many nodes effectively contribute to an ordered state. Finally, the proposed theory is used to answer how and where a network should be targeted in order to optimize the time needed to observe a switch.

Effects of cell cycle noise on excitable gene circuits

We assess the impact of cell cycle noise on gene circuit dynamics. For bistable genetic switches and excitable circuits, we find that transitions between metastable states most likely occur just after cell division and that this concentration effect intensifies in the presence of transcriptional delay. We explain this concentration effect with a three-states stochastic model. For genetic oscillators, we quantify the temporal correlations between daughter cells induced by cell division. Temporal correlations must be captured properly in order to accurately quantify noise sources within gene networks.