Detrended fluctuation analysis made flexible to detect range of cross-correlated fluctuations

Multiscale detrended cross-correlation coefficient: estimating coupling in non-stationary neurophysiological signals

The brain consists of a vastly interconnected network of regions, the connectome. By estimating the statistical interdependence of neurophysiological time series, we can measure the functional connectivity (FC) of this connectome. Pearson's correlation (r P) is a common metric of coupling in FC studies. Yet r P does not account properly for the non-stationarity of the signals recorded in neuroimaging. In this study, we introduced a novel estimator of coupled dynamics termed multiscale detrended cross-correlation coefficient (MDC3). Firstly, we showed that MDC3 had higher accuracy compared to r P and lagged covariance using simulated time series with known coupling, as well as simulated functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) signals with known underlying structural connectivity. Next, we computed functional brain networks based on empirical magnetoencephalography (MEG) and fMRI. We found that by using MDC3 we could construct networks of healthy populations with significantly different properties compared to r P networks. Based on our results, we believe that MDC3 is a valid alternative to r P that should be incorporated in future FC studies.

Time series analysis of a 22-year record of 7Be, 210Pb and gross alpha activities in the Canary Islands (Spain) using Principal Component and Multifractal Detrended Fluctuation Analyses

The long-term variability of a 22-year dataset of 7Be, 210Pb and gross alpha concentrations in surface aerosols collected in the Canary Islands has been analysed in this study. These "time series" were collected on a weekly basis. Various analytical techniques, including Principal Component Analysis (PCA), K-means clustering, correlation analyses, and back-trajectory were used to determine the variability of the data and assess the statistical importance of the source of the air masses reaching the study area. Monthly and annual variations for the time series were also studied. As expected, 7Be, 210Pb time series showed common variability, while gross alpha concentrations were strongly correlated with average PM10 concentration in air. The fractal properties of the time series were studied to gain a deeper understanding of the underlying structure and dynamics of the data. Multifractal Detrended Fluctuation Analysis (MF-DFA) and Multifractal Detrended Cross-Correlation Analysis (MF-DCCA) techniques were also used to detect and analyse the multifractal characteristics of the 7Be, 210Pb, and gross alpha time series. Multifractality was observed, with values of 0.28, 0.67, and 0.61 for 7Be, 210Pb, and gross alpha, respectively. Long-range correlation was found to be the source of the observed multifractality in the three parameters. Multifractal detrended cross-correlation analysis supports the correlation between 7Be - Alpha, 210Pb - Alpha, and 7Be - 210Pb pairs. The results from this study will help model the transport and destiny of natural radionuclides in the atmosphere at this site. The evolution and interactions between 7Be, 210Pb, and gross alpha, reported herein occurred not just locally but also across extensive temporal domains, leading to the emergence of multifractal behaviour in their concentrations. These long-range behaviours/correlations might result from various factors such as atmospheric circulation patterns, global transport mechanisms, or large-scale environmental processes.

Correlations versus noise in the NFT market

The non-fungible token (NFT) market emerges as a recent trading innovation leveraging blockchain technology, mirroring the dynamics of the cryptocurrency market. The current study is based on the capitalization changes and transaction volumes across a large number of token collections on the Ethereum platform. In order to deepen the understanding of the market dynamics, the inter-collection dependencies are examined by using the multivariate formalism of detrended correlation coefficient and correlation matrix. It appears that correlation strength is lower here than that observed in previously studied markets. Consequently, the eigenvalue spectra of the correlation matrix more closely follow the Marchenko-Pastur distribution, still, some departures indicating the existence of correlations remain. The comparison of results obtained from the correlation matrix built from the Pearson coefficients and, independently, from the detrended cross-correlation coefficients suggests that the global correlations in the NFT market arise from higher frequency fluctuations. Corresponding minimal spanning trees for capitalization variability exhibit a scale-free character while, for the number of transactions, they are somewhat more decentralized.

Multifractality approach of a generalized Shannon index in financial time series

Multifractality is a concept that extends locally the usual ideas of fractality in a system. Nevertheless, the multifractal approaches used lack a multifractal dimension tied to an entropy index like the Shannon index. This paper introduces a generalized Shannon index (GSI) and demonstrates its application in understanding system fluctuations. To this end, traditional multifractality approaches are explained. Then, using the temporal Theil scaling and the diffusive trajectory algorithm, the GSI and its partition function are defined. Next, the multifractal exponent of the GSI is derived from the partition function, establishing a connection between the temporal Theil scaling exponent and the generalized Hurst exponent. Finally, this relationship is verified in a fractional Brownian motion and applied to financial time series. In fact, this leads us to proposing an approximation called local fractional Brownian motion approximation, where multifractal systems are viewed as a local superposition of distinct fractional Brownian motions with varying monofractal exponents. Also, we furnish an algorithm for identifying the optimal q-th moment of the probability distribution associated with an empirical time series to enhance the accuracy of generalized Hurst exponent estimation.

Evolution of temporal fluctuation scaling exponent in nonstationary time series using supersymmetric theory of stochastic dynamics

Temporal fluctuation scaling (TFS) is an emergent property of complex systems that relates the variance (Ξ_{2}) and the mean (M_{1}) from an empirical data set in the form Ξ_{2}∼M_{1}^{α_{TFS}}, where the dispersion (fluctuation) of the data has been described in terms of Ξ_{2}. At present, it has been shown that this law of complex systems has different multidisciplinary applications such as characterizing the market rate based on its exponent, explaining the spatial spread of a pandemic or measuring dispersion in a counting process, among others, if it is known how the average value M_{1} of a representative quantity in a system changes. Then, using the path integral formalism and Parisi-Sourlas method, we propose an extension of path integral formalism to understand the origin of the temporal fluctuation scaling and the evolution of its exponent over time in nonstationary time series. To this end, we first show how the probability of transition between two states of a stochastic variable x(t) can be expressed once it is known its cumulant generating function. Also, we introduce a nonlinear term in a cumulant generating function of the form H^{(n)}(p,t;γ)∼p^{n} to obtain a model where the nth moment of the probability distribution evolves arbitrarily. Subsequently, in order to reproduce the temporal fluctuation scaling, a linear combination of H^{(n)}(p,t;γ) with n∈{1,2} is used. Therefore this allows describing how the mean M_{1}(t) and the variance Ξ_{2}(t) of empirical time series evolve. Thence, an analytical expression is deduced for the evolution of the temporal evolution of the temporal fluctuation scaling exponent α_{TFS}(t). Likewise, the validity of the expression found for α_{TFS}(t) is verified with a toy model based on white noise. Finally, this approach is verified in two stock indices (Dow Jones and Sao Paulo stock index) and two currencies (GBP-USD and EUR-USD) with daily data. It is found that this approach accurately captures the evolution of the mean and variance of these four financial derivatives after contrasting the results with a coefficient of determination that depends on H^{(n)}(p,t;γ). Also, it is shown that the temporal fluctuation scaling exponent is a measure of uncertainty or volatility in financial time series.

On Multiscaling of Parkinsonian Rest Tremor Signals and Their Classification

Self-similar stochastic processes and broad probability distributions are ubiquitous in nature and in many man-made systems. The brain is a particularly interesting example of (natural) complex system where those features play a pivotal role. In fact, the controversial yet experimentally validated "criticality hypothesis" explaining the functioning of the brain implies the presence of scaling laws for correlations. Recently, we have analyzed a collection of rest tremor velocity signals recorded from patients affected by Parkinson's disease, with the aim of determining and hence exploiting the presence of scaling laws. Our results show that multiple scaling laws are required in order to describe the dynamics of such signals, stressing the complexity of the underlying generating mechanism. We successively extracted numeric features by using the multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis procedure. We found that such features can be effective for discriminating classes of signals recorded in different experimental conditions. Notably, we show that the use of medication (L-DOPA) can be recognized with high accuracy.

What Is Mature and What Is Still Emerging in the Cryptocurrency Market?

In relation to the traditional financial markets, the cryptocurrency market is a recent invention and the trading dynamics of all its components are readily recorded and stored. This fact opens up a unique opportunity to follow the multidimensional trajectory of its development since inception up to the present time. Several main characteristics commonly recognized as financial stylized facts of mature markets were quantitatively studied here. In particular, it is shown that the return distributions, volatility clustering effects, and even temporal multifractal correlations for a few highest-capitalization cryptocurrencies largely follow those of the well-established financial markets. The smaller cryptocurrencies are somewhat deficient in this regard, however. They are also not as highly cross-correlated among themselves and with other financial markets as the large cryptocurrencies. Quite generally, the volume V impact on price changes R appears to be much stronger on the cryptocurrency market than in the mature stock markets, and scales as R(V)∼Vα with α≳1.

Cryptocurrencies Are Becoming Part of the World Global Financial Market

In this study the cross-correlations between the cryptocurrency market represented by the two most liquid and highest-capitalized cryptocurrencies: bitcoin and ethereum, on the one side, and the instruments representing the traditional financial markets: stock indices, Forex, commodities, on the other side, are measured in the period: January 2020-October 2022. Our purpose is to address the question whether the cryptocurrency market still preserves its autonomy with respect to the traditional financial markets or it has already aligned with them in expense of its independence. We are motivated by the fact that some previous related studies gave mixed results. By calculating the q-dependent detrended cross-correlation coefficient based on the high frequency 10 s data in the rolling window, the dependence on various time scales, different fluctuation magnitudes, and different market periods are examined. There is a strong indication that the dynamics of the bitcoin and ethereum price changes since the March 2020 COVID-19 panic is no longer independent. Instead, it is related to the dynamics of the traditional financial markets, which is especially evident now in 2022, when the bitcoin and ethereum coupling to the US tech stocks is observed during the market bear phase. It is also worth emphasizing that the cryptocurrencies have begun to react to the economic data such as the Consumer Price Index readings in a similar way as traditional instruments. Such a spontaneous coupling of the so far independent degrees of freedom can be interpreted as a kind of phase transition that resembles the collective phenomena typical for the complex systems. Our results indicate that the cryptocurrencies cannot be considered as a safe haven for the financial investments.

Task-dependent fractal patterns of information processing in working memory

We applied detrended fluctuation analysis, power spectral density, and eigenanalysis of detrended cross-correlations to investigate fMRI data representing a diurnal variation of working memory in four visual tasks: two verbal and two nonverbal. We show that the degree of fractal scaling is regionally dependent on the engagement in cognitive tasks. A particularly apparent difference was found between memorisation in verbal and nonverbal tasks. Furthermore, the detrended cross-correlations between brain areas were predominantly indicative of differences between resting state and other tasks, between memorisation and retrieval, and between verbal and nonverbal tasks. The fractal and spectral analyses presented in our study are consistent with previous research related to visuospatial and verbal information processing, working memory (encoding and retrieval), and executive functions, but they were found to be more sensitive than Pearson correlations and showed the potential to obtain other subtler results. We conclude that regionally dependent cognitive task engagement can be distinguished based on the fractal characteristics of BOLD signals and their detrended cross-correlation structure.

Analysis of inter-transaction time fluctuations in the cryptocurrency market

We analyze tick-by-tick data representing major cryptocurrencies traded on some different cryptocurrency trading platforms. We focus on such quantities like the inter-transaction times, the number of transactions in time unit, the traded volume, and volatility. We show that the inter-transaction times show long-range power-law autocorrelations. These lead to multifractality expressed by the right-side asymmetry of the singularity spectra f ( α ) indicating that the periods of increased market activity are characterized by richer multifractality compared to the periods of quiet market. We also show that neither the stretched exponential distribution nor the power-law-tail distribution is able to model universally the cumulative distribution functions of the quantities considered in this work. For each quantity, some data sets can be modeled by the former and some data sets by the latter, while both fail in other cases. An interesting, yet difficult to account for, observation is that parallel data sets from different trading platforms can show disparate statistical properties.

Multifractal Cross-Correlations of Bitcoin and Ether Trading Characteristics in the Post-COVID-19 Time

Unlike price fluctuations, the temporal structure of cryptocurrency trading has seldom been a subject of systematic study. In order to fill this gap, we analyse detrended correlations of the price returns, the average number of trades in time unit, and the traded volume based on high-frequency data representing two major cryptocurrencies: bitcoin and ether. We apply the multifractal detrended cross-correlation analysis, which is considered the most reliable method for identifying nonlinear correlations in time series. We find that all the quantities considered in our study show an unambiguous multifractal structure from both the univariate (auto-correlation) and bivariate (cross-correlation) perspectives. We looked at the bitcoin–ether cross-correlations in simultaneously recorded signals, as well as in time-lagged signals, in which a time series for one of the cryptocurrencies is shifted with respect to the other. Such a shift suppresses the cross-correlations partially for short time scales, but does not remove them completely. We did not observe any qualitative asymmetry in the results for the two choices of a leading asset. The cross-correlations for the simultaneous and lagged time series became the same in magnitude for the sufficiently long scales.

Temporal Theil scaling in diffusive trajectory time series

Temporal fluctuation scaling (TFS) is a power-law relation between the variance (Ξ) and the mean (Υ) which is present in cumulative time series. Taking into account that Theil index (T) can be assumed as a measure of dispersion and considering diffusive trajectory time series, we find a power-law relation between T and Υ of the form T∼(1-cΥ)^{β}, which we call temporal Theil scaling (TTS). Specifically, by analyzing data of volatility and absolute log-return for 24 nonstationary time series of financial markets, meteorology, and COVID-19 spread, we find that TTS is present in diffusive trajectory time series, while TFS is not present. Furthermore, we show that the power-law relation of TTS has a form that is similar to the relation between order parameter and temperature, which is found in the Ginzburg-Landau theory when the nontrivial critical points of an energy functional F_{η,δ} containing arbitrary powers η and δ of the order parameter are calculated.

The impact of COVID-19 pandemic on the dynamic correlations between gold and U.S. equities: evidence from multifractal cross-correlation analysis

This study exploits multifractal cross-correlation analysis (MFCCA) to investigate the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the cross-correlations between gold and U.S. equity markets using 1-min high-frequency data from January 1, 2019, to December 29, 2020. The MFCCA method shows that the pandemic caused an increase of multifractality in cross-correlations between the two markets. Specifically, the cross-correlations of small fluctuations became more persistent while those of large fluctuations became less persistent, explaining the source of multifractality. The findings of this study carry significant implications for investors, academicians, and policymakers. For example, the increase of multifractality of cross-correlation means that the non-linear relationship between gold and U.S. equity returns prevails more during economic downturns. Therefore, academicians may resort to non-linear techniques to evaluate the relationship between gold and U.S. equity markets during the health pandemic. Moreover, investors can know the value of hedging benefits over different investment time horizons during the pandemic. Finally, policymakers can better assess the economic downturns (i.e., those caused by health pandemics) over the dynamics of cross-correlation between gold and equity markets to make sound financial policies.

Multiscale Partial Correlation Clustering of Stock Market Returns

This study proposes a wavelet procedure for estimating partial correlation coefficients between stock market returns over different time scales. The estimated partial correlations are subsequently used in a cluster analysis to identify, for each time scale, groups of stocks that exhibit distinct market movement characteristics and are therefore useful for portfolio diversification. The proposed procedure is demonstrated using all the major S&P 500 sector indices as well as precious metals and energy sector futures returns during the last decade. The results suggest cluster formations that vary by time scale, which entails different stock selection strategies for investors differing in terms of their investment horizon orientation.

Cryptocurrency Market Consolidation in 2020-2021

Time series of price returns for 80 of the most liquid cryptocurrencies listed on Binance are investigated for the presence of detrended cross-correlations. A spectral analysis of the detrended correlation matrix and a topological analysis of the minimal spanning trees calculated based on this matrix are applied for different positions of a moving window. The cryptocurrencies become more strongly cross-correlated among themselves than they used to be before. The average cross-correlations increase with time on a specific time scale in a way that resembles the Epps effect amplification when going from past to present. The minimal spanning trees also change their topology and, for the short time scales, they become more centralized with increasing maximum node degrees, while for the long time scales they become more distributed, but also more correlated at the same time. Apart from the inter-market dependencies, the detrended cross-correlations between the cryptocurrency market and some traditional markets, like the stock markets, commodity markets, and Forex, are also analyzed. The cryptocurrency market shows higher levels of cross-correlations with the other markets during the same turbulent periods, in which it is strongly cross-correlated itself.

Is gold a hedge or safe haven against oil and currency market movements? A revisit using multifractal approach

We investigate gold's role as a hedge or safe haven against oil price and currency movements across calm and extreme market conditions. For the empirical analysis, we extend the intraday multifractal correlation measure developed by Madani et al. (Bankers, Markets & Investors, 163:2-13, 2020) to consider the dependence for calm and extreme movement periods across different time scales. Interestingly, we employ the rolling window method to examine the time-varying dependence between gold-oil and gold-currency in terms of calm and turmoil market conditions. Based on high frequency (5-min intervals) across the period 2017-2019, our analysis shows three interesting findings. First, gold acts as a weak (strong) hedge for oil (currency) market movements, across all agent types. Second, gold has strong safe-haven capability against extreme currency movements, and against only short time scales of oil price movements. Third, hedging strategies confirm the scale-dependent gold's role in reducing portfolio risk as a hedge or safe haven. Implications for investors, financial institutions, and policymakers are discussed.

A spatio-temporal analysis of dengue spread in a Brazilian dry climate region

We investigated the relation between the spread, time scale, and spatial arrangement of dengue in Bahia, a Brazilian dry climate region, for the period 2000 to 2009. The degree of cross-correlation is calculated for 15 economic regions. We propose a multiscale statistical analysis to datasets of dengue cases in order to verify the effect of infection dispersal on the economic regions from the metropolitan region of Salvador. Our empirical results support a significant and persistent cross-correlation between most regions, reinforcing the idea that economic regions or climatic conditions are non-statistically significant in the spread of dengue in the State of Bahia. Our main contribution lies in the cross-correlation results revealing multiple aspects related to the propagation of dengue in dry climate regions.

Scale-Free Coupled Dynamics in Brain Networks Captured by Bivariate Focus-Based Multifractal Analysis

While most connectivity studies investigate functional connectivity (FC) in a scale-dependent manner, coupled neural processes may also exhibit broadband dynamics, manifesting as power-law scaling of their measures of interdependence. Here we introduce the bivariate focus-based multifractal (BFMF) analysis as a robust tool for capturing such scale-free relations and use resting-state electroencephalography (EEG) recordings of 12 subjects to demonstrate its performance in reconstructing physiological networks. BFMF was employed to characterize broadband FC between 62 cortical regions in a pairwise manner, with all investigated connections being tested for true bivariate multifractality. EEG channels were also grouped to represent the activity of six resting-state networks (RSNs) in the brain, thus allowing for the analysis of within- and between- RSNs connectivity, separately. Most connections featured true bivariate multifractality, which could be attributed to the genuine scale-free coupling of neural dynamics. Bivariate multifractality showed a characteristic topology over the cortex that was highly concordant among subjects. Long-term autocorrelation was higher in within-RSNs, while the degree of multifractality was generally found stronger in between-RSNs connections. These results offer statistical evidence of the bivariate multifractal nature of functional coupling in the brain and validate BFMF as a robust method to capture such scale-independent coupled dynamics.

Complexity in Economic and Social Systems: Cryptocurrency Market at around COVID-19

Social systems are characterized by an enormous network of connections and factors that can influence the structure and dynamics of these systems. Among them the whole economical sphere of human activity seems to be the most interrelated and complex. All financial markets, including the youngest one, the cryptocurrency market, belong to this sphere. The complexity of the cryptocurrency market can be studied from different perspectives. First, the dynamics of the cryptocurrency exchange rates to other cryptocurrencies and fiat currencies can be studied and quantified by means of multifractal formalism. Second, coupling and decoupling of the cryptocurrencies and the conventional assets can be investigated with the advanced cross-correlation analyses based on fractal analysis. Third, an internal structure of the cryptocurrency market can also be a subject of analysis that exploits, for example, a network representation of the market. In this work, we approach the subject from all three perspectives based on data from a recent time interval between January 2019 and June 2020. This period includes the peculiar time of the Covid-19 pandemic; therefore, we pay particular attention to this event and investigate how strong its impact on the structure and dynamics of the market was. Besides, the studied data covers a few other significant events like double bull and bear phases in 2019. We show that, throughout the considered interval, the exchange rate returns were multifractal with intermittent signatures of bifractality that can be associated with the most volatile periods of the market dynamics like a bull market onset in April 2019 and the Covid-19 outburst in March 2020. The topology of a minimal spanning tree representation of the market also used to alter during these events from a distributed type without any dominant node to a highly centralized type with a dominating hub of USDT. However, the MST topology during the pandemic differs in some details from other volatile periods.

Slow 0.1 Hz Breathing and Body Posture Induced Perturbations of RRI and Respiratory Signal Complexity and Cardiorespiratory Coupling

Objective: We explored the physiological background of the non-linear operating mode of cardiorespiratory oscillators as the fundamental question of cardiorespiratory homeodynamics and as a prerequisite for the understanding of neurocardiovascular diseases. We investigated 20 healthy human subjects for changes using electrocardiac RR interval (RRI) and respiratory signal (Resp) Detrended Fluctuation Analysis (DFA, α1RRI, α2RRI, α1Resp, α2Resp), Multiple Scaling Entropy (MSERRI1-4, MSERRI5-10, MSEResp1-4, MSEResp5-10), spectral coherence (CohRRI-Resp), cross DFA (ρ1 and ρ2) and cross MSE (XMSE1-4 and XMSE5-10) indices in four physiological conditions: supine with spontaneous breathing, standing with spontaneous breathing, supine with 0.1 Hz breathing and standing with 0.1 Hz breathing. Main results: Standing is primarily characterized by the change of RRI parameters, insensitivity to change with respiratory parameters, decrease of CohRRI-Resp and insensitivity to change of in ρ1, ρ2, XMSE1-4, and XMSE5-10. Slow breathing in supine position was characterized by the change of the linear and non-linear parameters of both signals, reflecting the dominant vagal RRI modulation and the impact of slow 0.1 Hz breathing on Resp parameters. CohRRI-Resp did not change with respect to supine position, while ρ1 increased. Slow breathing in standing reflected the qualitatively specific state of autonomic regulation with striking impact on both cardiac and respiratory parameters, with specific patterns of cardiorespiratory coupling. Significance: Our results show that cardiac and respiratory short term and long term complexity parameters have different, state dependent patterns. Sympathovagal non-linear interactions are dependent on the pattern of their activation, having different scaling properties when individually activated with respect to the state of their joint activation. All investigated states induced a change of α1 vs. α2 relationship, which can be accurately expressed by the proposed measure-inter-fractal angle θ. Short scale (α1 vs. MSE1-4) and long scale (α2 vs. MSE5-10) complexity measures had reciprocal interrelation in standing with 0.1 Hz breathing, with specific cardiorespiratory coupling pattern (ρ1 vs. XMSE1-4). These results support the hypothesis of hierarchical organization of cardiorespiratory complexity mechanisms and their recruitment in ascendant manner with respect to the increase of behavioral challenge complexity. Specific and comprehensive cardiorespiratory regulation in standing with 0.1 Hz breathing suggests this state as the potentially most beneficial maneuver for cardiorespiratory conditioning.

Multifractal temporally weighted detrended cross-correlation analysis of multivariate time series

Fractal and multifractal properties of various systems have been studied extensively. In this paper, first, the multivariate multifractal detrend cross-correlation analysis (MMXDFA) is proposed to investigate the multifractal features in multivariate time series. MMXDFA may produce oscillations in the fluctuation function and spurious cross correlations. In order to overcome these problems, we then propose the multivariate multifractal temporally weighted detrended cross-correlation analysis (MMTWXDFA). In relation to the multivariate detrended cross-correlation analysis and multifractal temporally weighted detrended cross-correlation analysis, an innovation of MMTWXDFA is the application of the signed Manhattan distance to calculate the local detrended covariance function. To evaluate the performance of the MMXDFA and MMTWXDFA methods, we apply them on some artificially generated multivariate series. Several numerical tests demonstrate that both methods can identify their fractality, but MMTWXDFA can detect long-range cross correlations and simultaneously quantify the levels of cross correlation between two multivariate series more accurately.

Detrended Multiple Cross-Correlation Coefficient applied to solar radiation, air temperature and relative humidity

Due to the importance of generating energy sustainably, with the Sun being a large solar power plant for the Earth, we study the cross-correlations between the main meteorological variables (global solar radiation, air temperature, and relative air humidity) from a global cross-correlation perspective to efficiently capture solar energy. This is done initially between pairs of these variables, with the Detrended Cross-Correlation Coefficient, ρ_DCCA, and subsequently with the recently developed Multiple Detrended Cross-Correlation Coefficient, \documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$${\boldsymbol{DM}}{{\boldsymbol{C}}}_{{\bf{x}}}^{{\bf{2}}}$$\end{document}DMCx2. We use the hourly data from three meteorological stations of the Brazilian Institute of Meteorology located in the state of Bahia (Brazil). Initially, with the original data, we set up a color map for each variable to show the time dynamics. After, ρ_DCCA was calculated, thus obtaining a positive value between the global solar radiation and air temperature, and a negative value between the global solar radiation and air relative humidity, for all time scales. Finally, for the first time, was applied \documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$${\boldsymbol{DM}}{{\boldsymbol{C}}}_{{\bf{x}}}^{{\bf{2}}}$$\end{document}DMCx2 to analyze cross-correlations between three meteorological variables at the same time. On taking the global radiation as the dependent variable, and assuming that \documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$${\boldsymbol{DM}}{{\boldsymbol{C}}}_{{\bf{x}}}^{{\bf{2}}}={\bf{1}}$$\end{document}DMCx2=1 (which varies from 0 to 1) is the ideal value for the capture of solar energy, our analysis finds some patterns (differences) involving these meteorological stations with a high intensity of annual solar radiation.

Multifractal analysis of financial markets: a review

Multifractality is ubiquitously observed in complex natural and socioeconomic systems. Multifractal analysis provides powerful tools to understand the complex nonlinear nature of time series in diverse fields. Inspired by its striking analogy with hydrodynamic turbulence, from which the idea of multifractality originated, multifractal analysis of financial markets has bloomed, forming one of the main directions of econophysics. We review the multifractal analysis methods and multifractal models adopted in or invented for financial time series and their subtle properties, which are applicable to time series in other disciplines. We survey the cumulating evidence for the presence of multifractality in financial time series in different markets and at different time periods and discuss the sources of multifractality. The usefulness of multifractal analysis in quantifying market inefficiency, in supporting risk management and in developing other applications is presented. We finally discuss open problems and further directions of multifractal analysis.

Comparative Analysis between Hydrous Ethanol and Gasoline C Pricing in Brazilian Retail Market

The global energy landscape is rapidly changing, including the transition to a low carbon economy and the use of liquid biofuel. The production of liquid biofuel has emerged as an alternative to the use of fossil fuels for purposes of energy conservation, carbon emission mitigation and agricultural development. In this article we study the co-movements between hydrous ethanol and gasoline C in the Brazilian retail market. A multi-scale cross correlation analysis was applied to the Average Retail Margin time series of hydrous ethanol for fifteen relevant retail markets in Brazil to analyze the competitiveness of hydrous ethanol towards gasoline C. The empirical results showed a remarkable different behavior between hydrous ethanol and gasoline C, for any time scale, regardless of geographical distance or regional differences.

Signatures of the Crypto-Currency Market Decoupling from the Forex

Based on the high-frequency recordings from Kraken, a cryptocurrency exchange and professional trading platform that aims to bring Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies into the mainstream, the multiscale cross-correlations involving the Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), Euro (EUR) and US dollar (USD) are studied over the period between 1 July 2016 and 31 December 2018. It is shown that the multiscaling characteristics of the exchange rate fluctuations related to the cryptocurrency market approach those of the Forex. This, in particular, applies to the BTC/ETH exchange rate, whose Hurst exponent by the end of 2018 started approaching the value of 0.5, which is characteristic of the mature world markets. Furthermore, the BTC/ETH direct exchange rate has already developed multifractality, which manifests itself via broad singularity spectra. A particularly significant result is that the measures applied for detecting cross-correlations between the dynamics of the BTC/ETH and EUR/USD exchange rates do not show any noticeable relationships. This could be taken as an indication that the cryptocurrency market has begun decoupling itself from the Forex.

Bitcoin market route to maturity? Evidence from return fluctuations, temporal correlations and multiscaling effects

Based on 1-min price changes recorded since year 2012, the fluctuation properties of the rapidly emerging Bitcoin market are assessed over chosen sub-periods, in terms of return distributions, volatility autocorrelation, Hurst exponents, and multiscaling effects. The findings are compared to the stylized facts of mature world markets. While early trading was affected by system-specific irregularities, it is found that over the months preceding April 2018 all these statistical indicators approach the features hallmarking maturity. This can be taken as an indication that the Bitcoin market, and possibly other cryptocurrencies, carry concrete potential of imminently becoming a regular market, alternative to the foreign exchange. Since high-frequency price data are available since the beginning of trading, the Bitcoin offers a unique window into the statistical characteristics of a market maturation trajectory.

Direct determination approach for the multifractal detrending moving average analysis

In the canonical framework, we propose an alternative approach for the multifractal analysis based on the detrending moving average method (MF-DMA). We define a canonical measure such that the multifractal mass exponent τ(q) is related to the partition function and the multifractal spectrum f(α) can be directly determined. The performances of the direct determination approach and the traditional approach of the MF-DMA are compared based on three synthetic multifractal and monofractal measures generated from the one-dimensional p-model, the two-dimensional p-model, and the fractional Brownian motions. We find that both approaches have comparable performances to unveil the fractal and multifractal nature. In other words, without loss of accuracy, the multifractal spectrum f(α) can be directly determined using the new approach with less computation cost. We also apply the new MF-DMA approach to the volatility time series of stock prices and confirm the presence of multifractality.

Detecting PM2.5's Correlations between Neighboring Cities Using a Time-Lagged Cross-Correlation Coefficient

In order to investigate the time-dependent cross-correlations of fine particulate (PM2.5) series among neighboring cities in Northern China, in this paper, we propose a new cross-correlation coefficient, the time-lagged q-L dependent height crosscorrelation coefficient (denoted by p q (τ, L)), which incorporates the time-lag factor and the fluctuation amplitude information into the analogous height cross-correlation analysis coefficient. Numerical tests are performed to illustrate that the newly proposed coefficient ρ q (τ, L) can be used to detect cross-correlations between two series with time lags and to identify different range of fluctuations at which two series possess cross-correlations. Applying the new coefficient to analyze the time-dependent cross-correlations of PM2.5 series between Beijing and the three neighboring cities of Tianjin, Zhangjiakou, and Baoding, we find that time lags between the PM2.5 series with larger fluctuations are longer than those between PM2.5 series withsmaller fluctuations. Our analysis also shows that cross-correlations between the PM2.5 series of two neighboring cities are significant and the time lags between two PM2.5 series of neighboring cities are significantly non-zero. These findings providenew scientific support on the view that air pollution in neighboring cities can affect one another not simultaneously but with a time lag.

Minimum spanning tree filtering of correlations for varying time scales and size of fluctuations

Based on a recently proposed q-dependent detrended cross-correlation coefficient, ρ_{q} [J. Kwapień, P. Oświęcimka, and S. Drożdż, Phys. Rev. E 92, 052815 (2015)PLEEE81539-375510.1103/PhysRevE.92.052815], we generalize the concept of the minimum spanning tree (MST) by introducing a family of q-dependent minimum spanning trees (qMSTs) that are selective to cross-correlations between different fluctuation amplitudes and different time scales of multivariate data. They inherit this ability directly from the coefficients ρ_{q}, which are processed here to construct a distance matrix being the input to the MST-constructing Kruskal's algorithm. The conventional MST with detrending corresponds in this context to q=2. In order to illustrate their performance, we apply the qMSTs to sample empirical data from the American stock market and discuss the results. We show that the qMST graphs can complement ρ_{q} in disentangling "hidden" correlations that cannot be observed in the MST graphs based on ρ_{DCCA}, and therefore, they can be useful in many areas where the multivariate cross-correlations are of interest. As an example, we apply this method to empirical data from the stock market and show that by constructing the qMSTs for a spectrum of q values we obtain more information about the correlation structure of the data than by using q=2 only. More specifically, we show that two sets of signals that differ from each other statistically can give comparable trees for q=2, while only by using the trees for q≠2 do we become able to distinguish between these sets. We also show that a family of qMSTs for a range of q expresses the diversity of correlations in a manner resembling the multifractal analysis, where one computes a spectrum of the generalized fractal dimensions, the generalized Hurst exponents, or the multifractal singularity spectra: the more diverse the correlations are, the more variable the tree topology is for different q's. As regards the correlation structure of the stock market, our analysis exhibits that the stocks belonging to the same or similar industrial sectors are correlated via the fluctuations of moderate amplitudes, while the largest fluctuations often happen to synchronize in those stocks that do not necessarily belong to the same industry.

Multifractal cross-correlation effects in two-variable time series of complex network vertex observables

We investigate the scaling of the cross-correlations calculated for two-variable time series containing vertex properties in the context of complex networks. Time series of such observables are obtained by means of stationary, unbiased random walks. We consider three vertex properties that provide, respectively, short-, medium-, and long-range information regarding the topological role of vertices in a given network. In order to reveal the relation between these quantities, we applied the multifractal cross-correlation analysis technique, which provides information about the nonlinear effects in coupling of time series. We show that the considered network models are characterized by unique multifractal properties of the cross-correlation. In particular, it is possible to distinguish between Erdös-Rényi, Barabási-Albert, and Watts-Strogatz networks on the basis of fractal cross-correlation. Moreover, the analysis of protein contact networks reveals characteristics shared with both scale-free and small-world models.