Foreshock and aftershocks in simple earthquake models

Fitness noise in the Bak-Sneppen evolution model in high dimensions

We study the Bak-Sneppen evolution model on a regular hypercubic lattice in high dimensions. Recent work [Phys. Rev. E 108, 044109 (2023)2470-004510.1103/PhysRevE.108.044109] showed the emergence of the 1/f^{α} noise for the fitness observable with α≈1.2 in one-dimension (1D) and α≈2 for the random neighbor (mean-field) version of the model. We examine the temporal correlation of fitness in 2, 3, 4, and 5 dimensions. As obtained by finite-size scaling, the spectral exponent tends to take the mean-field value at the upper critical dimension D_{u}=4, which is consistent with previous studies. Our approach provides an alternative way to understand the upper critical dimension of the model. We also show the local activity power spectra, which offer insight into the return time statistics and the avalanche dimension.

Is Seismicity Operating at a Critical Point?

Seismicity and faulting within the Earth's crust are characterized by many scaling laws that are usually interpreted as qualifying the existence of underlying physical mechanisms associated with some kind of criticality in the sense of phase transitions. Using an augmented epidemic-type aftershock sequence (ETAS) model that accounts for the spatial variability of the background rates μ(x,y), we present a direct quantitative test of criticality. We calibrate the model to the ANSS catalog of the entire globe, the region around California, and the Geonet catalog for the region around New Zealand using an extended expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm including the determination of μ(x,y). We demonstrate that the criticality reported in previous studies is spurious and can be attributed to a systematic upward bias in the calibration of the branching ratio of the ETAS model, when not accounting correctly for spatial variability. We validate the version of the ETAS model that possesses a space varying background rate μ(x,y) by performing pseudoprospective forecasting tests. The noncriticality of seismicity has major implications for the prediction of large events.

The influence of the brittle-ductile transition zone on aftershock and foreshock occurrence

Aftershock occurrence is characterized by scaling behaviors with quite universal exponents. At the same time, deviations from universality have been proposed as a tool to discriminate aftershocks from foreshocks. Here we show that the change in rheological behavior of the crust, from velocity weakening to velocity strengthening, represents a viable mechanism to explain statistical features of both aftershocks and foreshocks. More precisely, we present a model of the seismic fault described as a velocity weakening elastic layer coupled to a velocity strengthening visco-elastic layer. We show that the statistical properties of aftershocks in instrumental catalogs are recovered at a quantitative level, quite independently of the value of model parameters. We also find that large earthquakes are often anticipated by a preparatory phase characterized by the occurrence of foreshocks. Their magnitude distribution is significantly flatter than the aftershock one, in agreement with recent results for forecasting tools based on foreshocks.

Hierarchical block model for earthquakes

The presented model for earthquakes is based on two fundamental principles: the hierarchical structure of seismic areas and the concept of self-organized criticality. The model reproduces the basic empirical properties of seismic processes: the frequency-energy scaling relation (the Gutenberg-Richter law), the generalized Omori law for temporal decay of aftershocks, the aftershock productivity law, the fractal distributions of hypocenters (epicenters) with power-law dependencies of the number of events on distances between hypocenters (epicenters), and, finally, the γ distribution for waiting times. In the model, the threshold energies depend on the block sizes and are distributed according to the Gauss law. After strong earthquakes they are redistributed at the decreasing average values. The change of threshold energies leads to the triggering of aftershock series.

Power-law rheology controls aftershock triggering and decay

The occurrence of aftershocks is a signature of physical systems exhibiting relaxation phenomena. They are observed in various natural or experimental systems and usually obey several non-trivial empirical laws. Here we consider a cellular automaton realization of a nonlinear viscoelastic slider-block model in order to infer the physical mechanisms of triggering responsible for the occurrence of aftershocks. We show that nonlinear viscoelasticity plays a critical role in the occurrence of aftershocks. The model reproduces several empirical laws describing the statistics of aftershocks. In case of earthquakes, the proposed model suggests that the power-law rheology of the fault gauge, underlying lower crust, and upper mantle controls the decay rate of aftershocks. This is verified by analysing several prominent aftershock sequences for which the rheological properties of the underlying crust and upper mantle were established.