Resetting the Initial Conditions for Calculating Epidemic Spread: COVID-19 Outbreak in Italy

COVID-19 Risk Assessment: Contributing to Maintaining Urban Public Health Security and Achieving Sustainable Urban Development

As the most infectious disease in 2020, COVID-19 is an enormous shock to urban public health security and to urban sustainable development. Although the epidemic in China has been brought into control at present, the prevention and control of it is still the top priority of maintaining public health security. Therefore, the accurate assessment of epidemic risk is of great importance to the prevention and control even to overcoming of COVID-19. Using the fused data obtained from fusing multi-source big data such as POI (Point of Interest) data and Tencent-Yichuxing data, this study assesses and analyzes the epidemic risk and main factors that affect the distribution of COVID-19 on the basis of combining with logistic regression model and geodetector model. What’s more, the following main conclusions are obtained: the high-risk areas of the epidemic are mainly concentrated in the areas with relatively dense permanent population and floating population, which means that the permanent population and floating population are the main factors affecting the risk level of the epidemic. In other words, the reasonable control of population density is greatly conducive to reducing the risk level of the epidemic. Therefore, the control of regional population density remains the key to epidemic prevention and control, and home isolation is also the best means of prevention and control. The precise assessment and analysis of the epidemic conducts by this study is of great significance to maintain urban public health security and achieve the sustainable urban development.