Data-Driven Insights on Behavioral Factors that Affect Diabetes Management

Seasonal, weekly, and individual variations in long-term use of wearable medical devices for diabetes management

Wearable medical-grade devices are transforming the standard of care for prevalent chronic conditions like diabetes. Yet, adoption and long-term use remain a challenge for many people. In this study, we investigate patterns of consistent versus disrupted use of continuous glucose monitors (CGMs) through analysis of more than 118,000 days of data, with over 22 million blood glucose samples, from 108 young adults with type 1 diabetes (average: 3 years of CGM data per person). In this population, we found more consistent CGM use at the start and end of the year (e.g., January, December), and more disrupted CGM use in the middle of the year/warmer months (i.e., May to July). We also found more consistent CGM use on weekdays (Monday to Thursday) and during waking hours (6AM - 6PM), but more disrupted CGM use on weekends (Friday to Sunday) and during evening/night hours (7PM - 5AM). Only 52.7% of participants (57 out of 108) had consistent and sustained CGM use over the years (i.e., over 70% daily wear time for more than 70% of their data duration). From semi-structured interviews, we unpack factors contributing to sustained CGM use (e.g., easier and better blood glucose management) and factors contributing to disrupted CGM use (e.g., changes in insurance coverage, issues with sensor adhesiveness/lifespan, and college/life transitions). We leverage insights from this study to elicit implications for next-generation technology and interventions that can circumvent seasonal and other factors that disrupt sustained use of wearable medical devices for the goal of improving health outcomes.

Mealtime prediction using wearable insulin pump data to support diabetes management

Many patients with diabetes struggle with post-meal high blood glucose due to missed or untimely meal-related insulin doses. To address this challenge, our research aims to: (1) study mealtime patterns in patients with type 1 diabetes using wearable insulin pump data, and (2) develop personalized models for predicting future mealtimes to support timely insulin dose administration. Using two independent datasets with over 45,000 meal logs from 82 patients with diabetes, we find that the majority of people ( ∼ 60%) have irregular and inconsistent mealtime patterns that change notably through the course of each day and across months in their own historical data. We also show the feasibility of predicting future mealtimes with personalized LSTM-based models that achieve an average F1 score of > 95% with less than 0.25 false positives per day. Our research lays the groundwork for developing a meal prediction system that can nudge patients with diabetes to administer bolus insulin doses before meal consumption to reduce the occurrence of post-meal high blood glucose.

Understanding temporal changes and seasonal variations in glycemic trends using wearable data

Seasonal variations in glycemic trends remain largely unstudied despite the growing prevalence of diabetes. To address this gap, our objective is to investigate temporal changes in glycemic trends by analyzing intensively sampled blood glucose data from 137 patients (ages 2 to 76, primarily type 1 diabetes) over the course of 9 months to 4.5 years. From over 91,000 days of continuous glucose monitor data, we found that glycemic control decreases significantly around the holidays, with the largest decline observed on New Year's Day among the patients with already poor glycemic control (i.e., <55% time in the target range). We also observed seasonal variations in glycemic trends, with patients having worse glycemic control in the months of November to February (i.e., mid-fall and winter, in the United States), and better control in the months of April to August (i.e., mid-spring and summer). These insights are critical to inform targeted interventions that can improve diabetes outcomes.

DiaTrend: A dataset from advanced diabetes technology to enable development of novel analytic solutions

Objective digital data is scarce yet needed in many domains to enable research that can transform the standard of healthcare. While data from consumer-grade wearables and smartphones is more accessible, there is critical need for similar data from clinical-grade devices used by patients with a diagnosed condition. The prevalence of wearable medical devices in the diabetes domain sets the stage for unique research and development within this field and beyond. However, the scarcity of open-source datasets presents a major barrier to progress. To facilitate broader research on diabetes-relevant problems and accelerate development of robust computational solutions, we provide the DiaTrend dataset. The DiaTrend dataset is composed of intensive longitudinal data from wearable medical devices, including a total of 27,561 days of continuous glucose monitor data and 8,220 days of insulin pump data from 54 patients with diabetes. This dataset is useful for developing novel analytic solutions that can reduce the disease burden for people living with diabetes and increase knowledge on chronic condition management in outpatient settings.

A computational framework for discovering digital biomarkers of glycemic control

Digital biomarkers can radically transform the standard of care for chronic conditions that are complex to manage. In this work, we propose a scalable computational framework for discovering digital biomarkers of glycemic control. As a feasibility study, we leveraged over 79,000 days of digital data to define objective features, model the impact of each feature, classify glycemic control, and identify the most impactful digital biomarkers. Our research shows that glycemic control varies by age group, and was worse in the youngest population of subjects between the ages of 2–14. In addition, digital biomarkers like prior-day time above range and prior-day time in range, as well as total daily bolus and total daily basal were most predictive of impending glycemic control. With a combination of the top-ranked digital biomarkers, we achieved an average F1 score of 82.4% and 89.7% for classifying next-day glycemic control across two unique datasets.

Investigating Temporal Patterns of Glycemic Control around Holidays

Maintaining good glycemic control is a central part of diabetes care. However, it can be a tedious task because many factors in daily living can affect glycemic control. To support management, a growing number of people living with diabetes are now being prescribed continuous glucose monitors (CGMs) for real-time tracking of their blood glucose levels. However, routine use of CGMs is also an invaluable source of patient-generated data for individual and population-level studies. Prior research has shown that festive periods such as holidays can be a notable contributor to overeating and weight gain. Thus, in this work, we sought to investigate patterns of glycemic control around the holidays, particularly Thanksgiving, Christmas, and New Year, by using 3-months of CGM data from 14 patients with Type 1 Diabetes. We leveraged clinically validated metrics for quantifying glycemic control from CGM data and well-established statistical tests to compare diabetes management on holiday weeks versus non-holiday weeks. Based on our analysis, we found that 86% of subjects (12 out of 14) had worse glycemic control (i.e., more ad-verse glycemic events) during holiday weeks compared to non-holiday weeks. This general trend was prevalent amongst most subjects, however, we also observed unique individual patterns of glycemic control. Our findings provide a basis for further research on temporal patterns in diabetes management and data-driven interventions to support patients and caregivers with maintaining good glycemic control all year round.

Neural Physiological Model: A Simple Module for Blood Glucose Prediction

Continuous glucose monitors (CGM) and insulin pumps are becoming increasingly important in diabetes management. Additionally, data streams from these devices enable the prospect of accurate blood glucose prediction to support patients in preventing adverse glycemic events. In this paper, we present Neural Physiological Encoder (NPE), a simple module that leverages decomposed convolutional filters to automatically generate effective features that can be used with a downstream neural network for blood glucose prediction. To our knowledge, this is the first work to investigate a decomposed architecture in the diabetes domain. Our experimental results show that the proposed NPE model can effectively capture temporal patterns and blood glucose associations with other daily activities. For predicting blood glucose 30-mins in advance, NPE+LSTM yields an average root mean square error (RMSE) of 9.18 mg/dL on an in-house diabetes dataset from 34 subjects. Additionally, it achieves state-of-the-art RMSE of 17.80 mg/dL on a publicly available diabetes dataset (OhioT1DM) from 6 subjects.