A Time-Series Feature-based Recursive Classification Model to Optimize Treatment Strategies for Improving Outcomes and Resource Allocations of COVID-19 Patients

Optimal resource allocation model for COVID-19: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

A lack of health resources is a common problem after the outbreak of infectious diseases, and resource optimization is an important means to solve the lack of prevention and control capacity caused by resource constraints. This study systematically evaluated the similarities and differences in the application of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) resource allocation models and analyzed the effects of different optimal resource allocations on epidemic control.

METHODS

A systematic literature search was conducted of CNKI, WanFang, VIP, CBD, PubMed, Web of Science, Scopus and Embase for articles published from January 1, 2019, through November 23, 2023. Two reviewers independently evaluated the quality of the included studies, extracted and cross-checked the data. Moreover, publication bias and sensitivity analysis were evaluated.

RESULTS

A total of 22 articles were included for systematic review; in the application of optimal allocation models, 59.09% of the studies used propagation dynamics models to simulate the allocation of various resources, and some scholars also used mathematical optimization functions (36.36%) and machine learning algorithms (31.82%) to solve the problem of resource allocation; the results of the systematic review show that differential equation modeling was more considered when testing resources optimization, the optimization function or machine learning algorithm were mostly used to optimize the bed resources; the meta-analysis results showed that the epidemic trend was obviously effectively controlled through the optimal allocation of resources, and the average control efficiency was 0.38(95%CI 0.25-0.51); Subgroup analysis revealed that the average control efficiency from high to low was health specialists 0.48(95%CI 0.37-0.59), vaccines 0.47(95%CI 0.11-0.82), testing 0.38(95%CI 0.19-0.57), personal protective equipment (PPE) 0.38(95%CI 0.06-0.70), beds 0.34(95%CI 0.14-0.53), medicines and equipment for treatment 0.32(95%CI 0.12-0.51); Funnel plots and Egger's test showed no publication bias, and sensitivity analysis suggested robust results.

CONCLUSION

When the data are insufficient and the simulation time is short, the researchers mostly use the constructor for research; When the data are relatively sufficient and the simulation time is long, researchers choose differential equations or machine learning algorithms for research. In addition, our study showed that control efficiency is an important indicator to evaluate the effectiveness of epidemic prevention and control. Through the optimization of medical staff and vaccine allocation, greater prevention and control effects can be achieved.

Using time-series chest radiographs and laboratory data by machine learning for identifying pulmonary infection and colonization of Acinetobacter baumannii

BACKGROUND

Accurately distinguishing between pulmonary infection and colonization in patients with Acinetobacter baumannii is of utmost importance to optimize treatment and prevent antibiotic abuse or inadequate therapy. An efficient automated sorting tool could prompt individualized interventions and enhance overall patient outcomes. This study aims to develop a robust machine learning classification model using a combination of time-series chest radiographs and laboratory data to accurately classify pulmonary status caused by Acinetobacter baumannii.

METHODS

We proposed nested logistic regression models based on different time-series data to automatically classify the pulmonary status of patients with Acinetobacter baumannii. Advanced features were extracted from the time-series data of hospitalized patients, encompassing dynamic pneumonia indicators observed on chest radiographs and laboratory indicator values recorded at three specific time points.

RESULTS

Data of 152 patients with Acinetobacter baumannii cultured from sputum or alveolar lavage fluid were retrospectively analyzed. Our model with multiple time-series data demonstrated a higher performance of AUC (0.850, with a 95% confidence interval of [0.638-0.873]), an accuracy of 0.761, a sensitivity of 0.833. The model, which only incorporated a single time point feature, achieved an AUC of 0.741. The influential model variables included difference in the chest radiograph pneumonia score.

CONCLUSION

Dynamic assessment of time-series chest radiographs and laboratory data using machine learning allowed for accurate classification of colonization and infection with Acinetobacter baumannii. This demonstrates the potential to help clinicians provide individualized treatment through early detection.

Deep Survival Analysis With Clinical Variables for COVID-19

OBJECTIVE

Millions of people have been affected by coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), which has caused millions of deaths around the world. Artificial intelligence (AI) plays an increasing role in all areas of patient care, including prognostics. This paper proposes a novel predictive model based on one dimensional convolutional neural networks (1D CNN) to use clinical variables in predicting the survival outcome of COVID-19 patients.

METHODS AND PROCEDURES

We have considered two scenarios for survival analysis, 1) uni-variate analysis using the Log-rank test and Kaplan-Meier estimator and 2) combining all clinical variables ([Formula: see text]=44) for predicting the short-term from long-term survival. We considered the random forest (RF) model as a baseline model, comparing to our proposed 1D CNN in predicting survival groups.

RESULTS

Our experiments using the univariate analysis show that nine clinical variables are significantly associated with the survival outcome with corrected p < 0.05. Our approach of 1D CNN shows a significant improvement in performance metrics compared to the RF and the state-of-the-art techniques (i.e., 1D CNN) in predicting the survival group of patients with COVID-19.

CONCLUSION

Our model has been tested using clinical variables, where the performance is found promising. The 1D CNN model could be a useful tool for detecting the risk of mortality and developing treatment plans in a timely manner.

CLINICAL IMPACT

The findings indicate that using both Heparin and Exnox for treatment is typically the most useful factor in predicting a patient's chances of survival from COVID-19. Moreover, our predictive model shows that the combination of AI and clinical data can be applied to point-of-care services through fast-learning healthcare systems.