Closed-Loop Control for Precision Antimicrobial Delivery: An In Silico Proof-of-Concept

A system theory based digital model for predicting the cumulative fluid balance course in intensive care patients

Background: Surgical interventions can cause severe fluid imbalances in patients undergoing cardiac surgery, affecting length of hospital stay and survival. Therefore, appropriate management of daily fluid goals is a key element of postoperative intensive care in these patients. Because fluid balance is influenced by a complex interplay of patient-, surgery- and intensive care unit (ICU)-specific factors, fluid prediction is difficult and often inaccurate. Methods: A novel system theory based digital model for cumulative fluid balance (CFB) prediction is presented using recorded patient fluid data as the sole parameter source by applying the concept of a transfer function. Using a retrospective dataset of n = 618 cardiac intensive care patients, patient-individual models were created and evaluated. RMSE analyses and error calculations were performed for reasonable combinations of model estimation periods and clinically relevant prediction horizons for CFB. Results: Our models have shown that a clinically relevant time horizon for CFB prediction with the combination of 48 h estimation time and 8-16 h prediction time achieves high accuracy. With an 8-h prediction time, nearly 50% of CFB predictions are within ±0.5 L, and 77% are still within the clinically acceptable range of ±1.0 L. Conclusion: Our study has provided a promising proof of principle and may form the basis for further efforts in the development of computational models for fluid prediction that do not require large datasets for training and validation, as is the case with machine learning or AI-based models. The adaptive transfer function approach allows estimation of CFB course on a dynamically changing patient fluid balance system by simulating the response to the current fluid management regime, providing a useful digital tool for clinicians in daily intensive care.

Closed-loop control of continuous piperacillin delivery: An in silico study

Background and objective: Sub-therapeutic dosing of piperacillin-tazobactam in critically-ill patients is associated with poor clinical outcomes and may promote the emergence of drug-resistant infections. In this paper, an in silico investigation of whether closed-loop control can improve pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic (PK-PD) target attainment is described.

Method: An in silico platform was developed using PK data from 20 critically-ill patients receiving piperacillin-tazobactam where serum and tissue interstitial fluid (ISF) PK were defined. Intra-day variability on renal clearance, ISF sensor error, and infusion constraints were taken into account. Proportional-integral-derivative (PID) control was selected for drug delivery modulation. Dose adjustment was made based on ISF sensor data with a 30-min sampling period, targeting a serum piperacillin concentration between 32 and 64 mg/L. A single tuning parameter set was employed across the virtual population. The PID controller was compared to standard therapy, including bolus and continuous infusion of piperacillin-tazobactam.

Results: Despite significant inter-subject and simulated intra-day PK variability and sensor error, PID demonstrated a significant improvement in target attainment compared to traditional bolus and continuous infusion approaches.

Conclusion: A PID controller driven by ISF drug concentration measurements has the potential to precisely deliver piperacillin-tazobactam in critically-ill patients undergoing treatment for sepsis.

Optimizing antimicrobial use: challenges, advances and opportunities

An optimal antimicrobial dose provides enough drug to achieve a clinical response while minimizing toxicity and development of drug resistance. There can be considerable variability in pharmacokinetics, for example, owing to comorbidities or other medications, which affects antimicrobial pharmacodynamics and, thus, treatment success. Although current approaches to antimicrobial dose optimization address fixed variability, better methods to monitor and rapidly adjust antimicrobial dosing are required to understand and react to residual variability that occurs within and between individuals. We review current challenges to the wider implementation of antimicrobial dose optimization and highlight novel solutions, including biosensor-based, real-time therapeutic drug monitoring and computer-controlled, closed-loop control systems. Precision antimicrobial dosing promises to improve patient outcome and is important for antimicrobial stewardship and the prevention of antimicrobial resistance.

A personalised approach to antibiotic pharmacokinetics and pharmacodynamics in critically ill patients

Critically ill patients admitted to intensive care unit (ICU) with severe infections, or those who develop nosocomial infections, have poor outcomes with substantial morbidity and mortality. Such patients commonly have suboptimal antibiotic exposures at routinely used antibiotic doses related to an increased volume of distribution and altered clearance due to their underlying altered physiology. Furthermore, the use of extracorporeal devices such as renal replacement therapy and extracorporeal membrane oxygenation in these group of patients also has the potential to alter in vivo drug concentrations. Moreover, ICU patients are likely to be infected with less-susceptible pathogens. Therefore, one potential contributing cause to the poor outcomes observed in critically ill patients may be related to subtherapeutic antibiotic exposures. Newer concepts include the clinician considering optimised dosing based on a blood antibiotic exposure defined by pharmacokinetic modelling and therapeutic drug monitoring, combined with a knowledge of the antibiotic penetration into the site of infection, thereby achieving optimal bacterial killing. Such optimised dosing is likely to improve patient outcomes. The aim of this review is to highlight key aspects of antibiotic pharmacokinetics and pharmacodynamics (PK/PD) in critically ill patients and provide a PK/PD approach to tailor antibiotic dosing to the individual patient.

Apprenticeship Learning for a Predictive State Representation of Anesthesia

OBJECTIVE

In this paper, we present an original decision support algorithm to assist the anesthesiologists delivery of drugs to maintain the optimal Depth of Anesthesia (DoA).

METHODS

Derived from a Transform Predictive State Representation algorithm (TPSR), our model learned by observing anesthesiologists in practice. This framework, known as apprenticeship learning, is particularly useful in the medical field as it is not based on an exploratory process - a prohibitive behavior in healthcare. The model only relied on the four commonly monitored variables: Heart Rate (HR), the Mean Blood Pressure (MBP), the Respiratory Rate (RR) and the concentration of anesthetic drug (AAFi).

RESULTS

Thirty-one patients have been included. The performances of the model is analyzed with metrics derived from the Hamming distance and cross entropy. They demonstrated that low rank dynamical system had the best performances on both predictions and simulations. Then, a confrontation of our agent to a panel of six real anesthesiologists demonstrated that 95.7% of the actions were valid.

CONCLUSION

These results strongly support the hypothesis that TPSR based models convincingly embed the behavior of anesthesiologists including only four variables that are commonly assessed to predict the DoA.

SIGNIFICANCE

The proposed novel approach could be of great help for clinicians by improving the fine tuning of the DoA. Furthermore, the possibility to predict the evolutions of the variables would help preventing side effects such as low blood pressure. A tool that could autonomously help the anesthesiologist would thus improve safety-level in the surgical room.

Exploring the Use of C-Reactive Protein to Estimate the Pharmacodynamics of Vancomycin

BACKGROUND

C-reactive protein (CRP) pharmacodynamic (PD) models have the potential to provide adjunctive methods for predicting the individual exposure response to antimicrobial therapy. We investigated CRP PD linked to a vancomycin pharmacokinetic (PK) model using routinely collected data from noncritical care adults in secondary care.

METHODS

Patients receiving intermittent intravenous vancomycin therapy in secondary care were identified. A 2-compartment vancomycin PK model was linked to a previously described PD model describing CRP response. PK and PD parameters were estimated using a Non-Parametric Adaptive Grid technique. Exposure-response relationships were explored with vancomycin area-under-the-concentration-time-curve (AUC) and EC50 (concentration of drug that causes a half maximal effect) using the index, AUC:EC50, fitted to CRP data using a sigmoidal Emax model.

RESULTS

Twenty-nine individuals were included. Median age was 62 (21-97) years. Fifteen (52%) patients were microbiology confirmed. PK and PD models were adequately fitted (r 0.83 and 0.82, respectively). There was a wide variation observed in individual Bayesian posterior EC50 estimates (6.95-48.55 mg/L), with mean (SD) AUC:EC50 of 31.46 (29.22). AUC:EC50 was fitted to terminal CRP with AUC:EC50 >19 associated with lower CRP value at 96-120 hours of therapy (100 mg/L versus 44 mg/L; P < 0.01).

CONCLUSIONS

The use of AUC:EC50 has the potential to provide in vivo organism and host response data as an adjunct for in vitro minimum inhibitory concentration data, which is currently used as the gold standard PD index for vancomycin therapy. This index can be estimated using routinely collected clinical data. Future work must investigate the role of AUC:EC50 in a prospective cohort and explore linkage with direct patient outcomes.