A Glucose-Insulin Mixture Model and Application to Short-Term Hypoglycemia Prediction in the Night Time

Artificial Intelligence to Diagnose Complications of Diabetes

Artificial intelligence (AI) is increasingly being used to diagnose complications of diabetes. Artificial intelligence is technology that enables computers and machines to simulate human intelligence and solve complicated problems. In this article, we address current and likely future applications for AI to be applied to diabetes and its complications, including pharmacoadherence to therapy, diagnosis of hypoglycemia, diabetic eye disease, diabetic kidney diseases, diabetic neuropathy, diabetic foot ulcers, and heart failure in diabetes.Artificial intelligence is advantageous because it can handle large and complex datasets from a variety of sources. With each additional type of data incorporated into a clinical picture of a patient, the calculation becomes increasingly complex and specific. Artificial intelligence is the foundation of emerging medical technologies; it will power the future of diagnosing diabetes complications.

Predicting risk for nocturnal hypoglycemia after physical activity in children with type 1 diabetes

Children with type 1 diabetes (T1D) frequently have nocturnal hypoglycemia, daytime physical activity being the most important risk factor. The risk for late post-exercise hypoglycemia depends on various factors and is difficult to anticipate. The availability of continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) enabled the development of various machine learning approaches for nocturnal hypoglycemia prediction for different prediction horizons. Studies focusing on nocturnal hypoglycemia prediction in children are scarce, and none, to the best knowledge of the authors, investigate the effect of previous physical activity. The primary objective of this work was to assess the risk of hypoglycemia throughout the night (prediction horizon 9 h) associated with physical activity in children with T1D using data from a structured setting. Continuous glucose and physiological data from a sports day camp for children with T1D were input for logistic regression, random forest, and deep neural network models. Results were evaluated using the F2 score, adding more weight to misclassifications as false negatives. Data of 13 children (4 female, mean age 11.3 years) were analyzed. Nocturnal hypoglycemia occurred in 18 of a total included 66 nights. Random forest using only glucose data achieved a sensitivity of 71.1% and a specificity of 75.8% for nocturnal hypoglycemia prediction. Predicting the risk of nocturnal hypoglycemia for the upcoming night at bedtime is clinically highly relevant, as it allows appropriate actions to be taken-to lighten the burden for children with T1D and their families.

Data-based modeling for hypoglycemia prediction: Importance, trends, and implications for clinical practice

Background and objective

Hypoglycemia is a key barrier to achieving optimal glycemic control in people with diabetes, which has been proven to cause a set of deleterious outcomes, such as impaired cognition, increased cardiovascular disease, and mortality. Hypoglycemia prediction has come to play a role in diabetes management as big data analysis and machine learning (ML) approaches have become increasingly prevalent in recent years. As a result, a review is needed to summarize the existing prediction algorithms and models to guide better clinical practice in hypoglycemia prevention.

Materials and methods

PubMed, EMBASE, and the Cochrane Library were searched for relevant studies published between 1 January 2015 and 8 December 2022. Five hypoglycemia prediction aspects were covered: real-time hypoglycemia, mild and severe hypoglycemia, nocturnal hypoglycemia, inpatient hypoglycemia, and other hypoglycemia (postprandial, exercise-related).

Results

From the 5,042 records retrieved, we included 79 studies in our analysis. Two major categories of prediction models are identified by an overview of the chosen studies: simple or logistic regression models based on clinical data and data-based ML models (continuous glucose monitoring data is most commonly used). Models utilizing clinical data have identified a variety of risk factors that can lead to hypoglycemic events. Data-driven models based on various techniques such as neural networks, autoregressive, ensemble learning, supervised learning, and mathematical formulas have also revealed suggestive features in cases of hypoglycemia prediction.

Conclusion

In this study, we looked deep into the currently established hypoglycemia prediction models and identified hypoglycemia risk factors from various perspectives, which may provide readers with a better understanding of future trends in this topic.

An OGI model for personalized estimation of glucose and insulin concentration in plasma

Plasma glucose concentration (PGC) and plasma insulin concentration (PIC) are two essential metrics for diabetic regulation, but difficult to be measured directly. Often, PGC and PIC are estimated from continuous glucose monitoring and insulin delivery data. Nevertheless, the inter-individual variability and external disturbance (e.g. carbohydrate intake) bring challenges for accurate estimations. This study is to estimate PGC and PIC adaptively by identifying personalized parameters and external disturbances. An observable glucose-insulin (OGI) dynamic model is established to describe insulin absorption, glucose regulation, and glucose transport. The model parameters and disturbances can be extended to observable state variables and be identified dynamically by Bayesian filtering estimators. Two basic Gaussian noise based Bayesian filtering estimators, extended Kalman filtering (EKF) and unscented Kalman filtering (UKF), are implemented. Recognizing the prevalence of non-Gaussian noise, in this study, two new filtering estimators: particle filtering with Gaussian noise (PFG), and particle filtering with mixed non-Gaussian noise (PFM) are designed and implemented. The proposed OGI model in conjunction with the estimators is evaluated using the data from 30 in-silico subjects and 10 human participants. For in-silico subjects, the OGI with PFM estimator has the ability to estimate PIC and PGC adaptively, achieving RMSE of PIC 9.49±3.81 mU/L, and PGC 0.89±0.19 mmol/L. For human, the OGI with PFM has the promise to identify disturbances (95.46%±0.65% accurate rate of meal identification). OGI model provides a way to fully personalize the parameters and external disturbances in real time, and has potential clinical utility for artificial pancreas.