The Minimally-Invasive Oral Glucose Minimal Model: Estimation of Gastric Retention, Glucose Rate of Appearance, and Insulin Sensitivity From Type 1 Diabetes Data Collected in Real-Life Conditions

Leveraging continuous glucose monitoring for personalized modeling of insulin-regulated glucose metabolism

Continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) is a promising, minimally invasive alternative to plasma glucose measurements for calibrating physiology-based mathematical models of insulin-regulated glucose metabolism, reducing the reliance on in-clinic measurements. However, the use of CGM glucose, particularly in combination with insulin measurements, to develop personalized models of glucose regulation remains unexplored. Here, we simultaneously measured interstitial glucose concentrations using CGM as well as plasma glucose and insulin concentrations during an oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT) in individuals with overweight or obesity to calibrate personalized models of glucose-insulin dynamics. We compared the use of interstitial glucose with plasma glucose in model calibration, and evaluated the effects on model fit, identifiability, and model parameters' association with clinically relevant metabolic indicators. Models calibrated on both plasma and interstitial glucose resulted in good model fit, and the parameter estimates associated with metabolic indicators such as insulin sensitivity measures in both cases. Moreover, practical identifiability of model parameters was improved in models estimated on CGM glucose compared to plasma glucose. Together these results suggest that CGM glucose may be considered as a minimally invasive alternative to plasma glucose measurements in model calibration to quantify the dynamics of glucose regulation.

A model of subcutaneous pramlintide pharmacokinetics and its effect on gastric emptying: Proof-of-concept based on populational data

Pramlintide, an amylin analog, has been coming up as an agent in type 1 diabetes dual-hormone therapies (insulin/pramlintide). Since pramlintide slows down gastric emptying, it allows for easing glucose control and reducing the burden of meal announcements. Pre-clinical in silico evaluations are a key step in the development of any closed-loop strategy. However, mathematical models are needed, and pramlintide models in the literature are scarce. This work proposes a proof-of-concept pramlintide model, describing its subcutaneous pharmacokinetics (PK) and its effect on gastric emptying (PD). The model is validated with published populational (clinical) data. The model development is divided into three stages: intravenous PK, subcutaneous PK, and PD modeling. In each stage, a set of model structures are proposed, and their performance is assessed using the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) and the Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC). In order to evaluate the modulation of the rate of gastric emptying, a literature meal model was used. The final pramlintide model comprises four compartments and a function that modulates gastric emptying depending on plasma pramlintide. Results show an appropriate fit for the data. Some aspects are left as open questions due to the lack of specific data (e.g., the influence of meal composition on the pramlintide effect). Moreover, further validation with individual data is necessary to propose a virtual cohort of patients.