A Bayesian Nonparametric Model for Disease Subtyping: Application to Emphysema Phenotypes

Data analysis strategies for the Accelerating Medicines Partnership® Schizophrenia Program

The Accelerating Medicines Partnership® Schizophrenia (AMP® SCZ) project assesses a large sample of individuals at clinical high-risk for developing psychosis (CHR) and community controls. Subjects are enrolled in 43 sites across 5 continents. The assessments include domains similar to those acquired in previous CHR studies along with novel domains that are collected longitudinally across a period of 2 years. In parallel with the data acquisition, multidisciplinary teams of experts have been working to formulate the data analysis strategy for the AMP SCZ project. Here, we describe the key principles for the data analysis. The primary AMP SCZ analysis aim is to use baseline clinical assessments and multimodal biomarkers to predict clinical endpoints of CHR individuals. These endpoints are defined for the AMP SCZ study as transition to psychosis (i.e., conversion), remission from CHR syndrome, and persistent CHR syndrome (non-conversion/non-remission) obtained at one year and two years after baseline assessment. The secondary aim is to use longitudinal clinical assessments and multimodal biomarkers from all time points to identify clinical trajectories that differentiate subgroups of CHR individuals. The design of the analysis plan is informed by reviewing legacy data and the analytic approaches from similar international CHR studies. In addition, we consider properties of the newly acquired data that are distinct from the available legacy data. Legacy data are used to assist analysis pipeline building, perform benchmark experiments, quantify clinical concepts and to make design decisions meant to overcome the challenges encountered in previous studies. We present the analytic design of the AMP SCZ project, mitigation strategies to address challenges related to the analysis plan, provide rationales for key decisions, and present examples of how the legacy data have been used to support design decisions for the analysis of the multimodal and longitudinal data. Watch Prof. Ofer Pasternak discuss his work and this article: https://vimeo.com/1023394132?share=copy#t=0 .

Dysanapsis is differentially related to lung function trajectories with distinct structural and functional patterns in COPD and variable risk for adverse outcomes

Background

Abnormal lung function trajectories are associated with increased risk of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and premature mortality; several risk factors for following these trajectories have been identified. Airway under-sizing dysanapsis (small airway lumens relative to lung size), is associated with an increased risk for COPD. The relationship between dysanapsis and lung function trajectories at risk for adverse outcomes of COPD is largely unexplored. We test the hypothesis that dysanapsis differentially affects distinct lung function trajectories associated with adverse outcomes of COPD.

Methods

To identify lung function trajectories, we applied Bayesian trajectory analysis to longitudinal FEV1 and FVC Z-scores in the COPDGene Study, an ongoing longitudinal study that collected baseline data from 2007 to 2012. To ensure clinical relevance, we selected trajectories based on risk stratification for all-cause mortality and prospective exacerbations of COPD (ECOPD). Dysanapsis was measured in baseline COPDGene CT scans as the airway lumen-to-lung volume (a/l) ratio. We compared a/l ratios between trajectories and evaluated their association with trajectory assignment, controlling for previously identified risk factors. We also assigned COPDGene participants for whom only baseline data is available to their most likely trajectory and repeated our analysis to further evaluate the relationship between trajectory assignment and a/l ratio measures.

Findings

We identified seven trajectories: supranormal, reference, and five trajectories at increased risk for mortality and exacerbations. Three at-risk trajectories are characterized by varying degrees of concomitant FEV1 and FVC impairments and exhibit airway predominant COPD patterns as assessed by quantitative CT imaging. These trajectories have lower a/l ratio values and increased risk for mortality and ECOPD compared to the reference trajectory. Two at-risk trajectories are characterized by disparate levels of FEV1 and FVC impairment and exhibit mixed airway and emphysema COPD patterns on quantitative CT imaging. These trajectories have markedly lower a/l ratio values compared to both the reference trajectory and airway-predominant trajectories and are at greater risk for mortality and ECOPD compared to the airway-predominant trajectories. These findings were observed among the participants with baseline-only data as well.

Interpretation

The degree of dysanapsis appears to portend patterns of progression leading to COPD. Assignment of individuals-including those without spirometric obstruction-to distinct trajectories is possible in a clinical setting and may influence management strategies. Strategies that combine CT-assessed dysanapsis together with spirometric measures of lung function and smoke exposure assessment are likely to further improve trajectory assignment accuracy, thereby improving early detection of those most at risk for adverse outcomes.

Funding

United States National Institute of Health, COPD Foundation, and Brigham and Women's Hospital.

Novel Subtypes of Pulmonary Emphysema Based on Spatially-Informed Lung Texture Learning: The Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA) COPD Study

Pulmonary emphysema overlaps considerably with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), and is traditionally subcategorized into three subtypes previously identified on autopsy. Unsupervised learning of emphysema subtypes on computed tomography (CT) opens the way to new definitions of emphysema subtypes and eliminates the need of thorough manual labeling. However, CT-based emphysema subtypes have been limited to texture-based patterns without considering spatial location. In this work, we introduce a standardized spatial mapping of the lung for quantitative study of lung texture location and propose a novel framework for combining spatial and texture information to discover spatially-informed lung texture patterns (sLTPs) that represent novel emphysema subtype candidates. Exploiting two cohorts of full-lung CT scans from the MESA COPD (n = 317) and EMCAP (n = 22) studies, we first show that our spatial mapping enables population-wide study of emphysema spatial location. We then evaluate the characteristics of the sLTPs discovered on MESA COPD, and show that they are reproducible, able to encode standard emphysema subtypes, and associated with physiological symptoms.

Multi-omics subtyping pipeline for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease

Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) is the third leading cause of mortality in the United States; however, COPD has heterogeneous clinical phenotypes. This is the first large scale attempt which uses transcriptomics, proteomics, and metabolomics (multi-omics) to determine whether there are molecularly defined clusters with distinct clinical phenotypes that may underlie the clinical heterogeneity. Subjects included 3,278 subjects from the COPDGene cohort with at least one of the following profiles: whole blood transcriptomes (2,650 subjects); plasma proteomes (1,013 subjects); and plasma metabolomes (1,136 subjects). 489 subjects had all three contemporaneous -omics profiles. Autoencoder embeddings were performed individually for each -omics dataset. Embeddings underwent subspace clustering using MineClus, either individually by -omics or combined, followed by recursive feature selection based on Support Vector Machines. Clusters were tested for associations with clinical variables. Optimal single -omics clustering typically resulted in two clusters. Although there was overlap for individual -omics cluster membership, each -omics cluster tended to be defined by unique molecular pathways. For example, prominent molecular features of the metabolome-based clustering included sphingomyelin, while key molecular features of the transcriptome-based clusters were related to immune and bacterial responses. We also found that when we integrated the -omics data at a later stage, we identified subtypes that varied based on age, severity of disease, in addition to diffusing capacity of the lungs for carbon monoxide, and precent on atrial fibrillation. In contrast, when we integrated the -omics data at an earlier stage by treating all data sets equally, there were no clinical differences between subtypes. Similar to clinical clustering, which has revealed multiple heterogenous clinical phenotypes, we show that transcriptomics, proteomics, and metabolomics tend to define clusters of COPD patients with different clinical characteristics. Thus, integrating these different -omics data sets affords additional insight into the molecular nature of COPD and its heterogeneity.

Predictive Analytics for Care and Management of Patients With Acute Diseases: Deep Learning-Based Method to Predict Crucial Complication Phenotypes

BACKGROUND

Acute diseases present severe complications that develop rapidly, exhibit distinct phenotypes, and have profound effects on patient outcomes. Predictive analytics can enhance physicians' care and management of patients with acute diseases by predicting crucial complication phenotypes for a timely diagnosis and treatment. However, effective phenotype predictions require several challenges to be overcome. First, patient data collected in the early stages of an acute disease (eg, clinical data and laboratory results) are less informative for predicting phenotypic outcomes. Second, patient data are temporal and heterogeneous; for example, patients receive laboratory tests at different time intervals and frequencies. Third, imbalanced distributions of patient outcomes create additional complexity for predicting complication phenotypes.

OBJECTIVE

To predict crucial complication phenotypes among patients with acute diseases, we propose a novel, deep learning-based method that uses recurrent neural network-based sequence embedding to represent disease progression while considering temporal heterogeneities in patient data. Our method incorporates a latent regulator to alleviate data insufficiency constraints by accounting for the underlying mechanisms that are not observed in patient data. The proposed method also includes cost-sensitive learning to address imbalanced outcome distributions in patient data for improved predictions.

METHODS

From a major health care organization in Taiwan, we obtained a sample of 10,354 electronic health records that pertained to 6545 patients with peritonitis. The proposed method projects these temporal, heterogeneous, and clinical data into a substantially reduced feature space and then incorporates a latent regulator (latent parameter matrix) to obviate data insufficiencies and account for variations in phenotypic expressions. Moreover, our method employs cost-sensitive learning to further increase the predictive performance.

RESULTS

We evaluated the efficacy of the proposed method for predicting two hepatic complication phenotypes in patients with peritonitis: acute hepatic encephalopathy and hepatorenal syndrome. The following three benchmark techniques were evaluated: temporal multiple measurement case-based reasoning (MMCBR), temporal short long-term memory (T-SLTM) networks, and time fusion convolutional neural network (CNN). For acute hepatic encephalopathy predictions, our method attained an area under the curve (AUC) value of 0.82, which outperforms temporal MMCBR by 64%, T-SLTM by 26%, and time fusion CNN by 26%. For hepatorenal syndrome predictions, our method achieved an AUC value of 0.64, which is 29% better than that of temporal MMCBR (0.54). Overall, the evaluation results show that the proposed method significantly outperforms all the benchmarks, as measured by recall, F-measure, and AUC while maintaining comparable precision values.

CONCLUSIONS

The proposed method learns a short-term temporal representation from patient data to predict complication phenotypes and offers greater predictive utilities than prevalent data-driven techniques. This method is generalizable and can be applied to different acute disease (illness) scenarios that are characterized by insufficient patient clinical data availability, temporal heterogeneities, and imbalanced distributions of important patient outcomes.

Incorporating External Information in Tissue Subtyping: A Topic Modeling Approach

Probabilistic topic models, have been widely deployed for various applications such as learning disease or tissue subtypes. Yet, learning the parameters of such models is usually an ill-posed problem and may result in losing valuable information about disease severity. A common approach is to add a discriminative loss term to the generative model's loss in order to learn a representation that is also predictive of disease severity. However, finding a balance between these two losses is not straightforward. We propose an alternative way in this paper. We develop a framework which allows for incorporating external covariates into the generative model's approximate posterior. These covariates can have more discriminative power for disease severity compared to the representation that we extract from the posterior distribution. For instance, they can be features extracted from a neural network which predicts disease severity from CT images. Effectively, we enforce the generative model's approximate posterior to reside in the subspace of these discriminative covariates. We illustrate our method's application on a large-scale lung CT study of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD), a highly heterogeneous disease. We aim at identifying tissue subtypes by using a variant of topic model as a generative model. We quantitatively evaluate the predictive performance of the inferred subtypes and demonstrate that our method outperforms or performs on par with some reasonable baselines. We also show that some of the discovered subtypes are correlated with genetic measurements, suggesting that the identified subtypes may characterize the disease's underlying etiology.

Disease Progression Modeling in Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease

Rationale: The decades-long progression of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) renders identifying different trajectories of disease progression challenging.Objectives: To identify subtypes of patients with COPD with distinct longitudinal progression patterns using a novel machine-learning tool called "Subtype and Stage Inference" (SuStaIn) and to evaluate the utility of SuStaIn for patient stratification in COPD.Methods: We applied SuStaIn to cross-sectional computed tomography imaging markers in 3,698 Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease (GOLD) 1-4 patients and 3,479 controls from the COPDGene (COPD Genetic Epidemiology) study to identify subtypes of patients with COPD. We confirmed the identified subtypes and progression patterns using ECLIPSE (Evaluation of COPD Longitudinally to Identify Predictive Surrogate Endpoints) data. We assessed the utility of SuStaIn for patient stratification by comparing SuStaIn subtypes and stages at baseline with longitudinal follow-up data.Measurements and Main Results: We identified two trajectories of disease progression in COPD: a "Tissue→Airway" subtype (n = 2,354, 70.4%), in which small airway dysfunction and emphysema precede large airway wall abnormalities, and an "Airway→Tissue" subtype (n = 988, 29.6%), in which large airway wall abnormalities precede emphysema and small airway dysfunction. Subtypes were reproducible in ECLIPSE. Baseline stage in both subtypes correlated with future FEV₁/FVC decline (r = -0.16 [P < 0.001] in the Tissue→Airway group; r = -0.14 [P = 0.011] in the Airway→Tissue group). SuStaIn placed 30% of smokers with normal lung function at elevated stages, suggesting imaging changes consistent with early COPD. Individuals with early changes were 2.5 times more likely to meet COPD diagnostic criteria at follow-up.Conclusions: We demonstrate two distinct patterns of disease progression in COPD using SuStaIn, likely representing different endotypes. One third of healthy smokers have detectable imaging changes, suggesting a new biomarker of "early COPD."

Machine Learning Characterization of COPD Subtypes: Insights From the COPDGene Study

COPD is a heterogeneous syndrome. Many COPD subtypes have been proposed, but there is not yet consensus on how many COPD subtypes there are and how they should be defined. The COPD Genetic Epidemiology Study (COPDGene), which has generated 10-year longitudinal chest imaging, spirometry, and molecular data, is a rich resource for relating COPD phenotypes to underlying genetic and molecular mechanisms. In this article, we place COPDGene clustering studies in context with other highly cited COPD clustering studies, and summarize the main COPD subtype findings from COPDGene. First, most manifestations of COPD occur along a continuum, which explains why continuous aspects of COPD or disease axes may be more accurate and reproducible than subtypes identified through clustering methods. Second, continuous COPD-related measures can be used to create subgroups through the use of predictive models to define cut-points, and we review COPDGene research on blood eosinophil count thresholds as a specific example. Third, COPD phenotypes identified or prioritized through machine learning methods have led to novel biological discoveries, including novel emphysema genetic risk variants and systemic inflammatory subtypes of COPD. Fourth, trajectory-based COPD subtyping captures differences in the longitudinal evolution of COPD, addressing a major limitation of clustering analyses that are confounded by disease severity. Ongoing longitudinal characterization of subjects in COPDGene will provide useful insights about the relationship between lung imaging parameters, molecular markers, and COPD progression that will enable the identification of subtypes based on underlying disease processes and distinct patterns of disease progression, with the potential to improve the clinical relevance and reproducibility of COPD subtypes.

Genetics of COPD

Although chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) risk is strongly influenced by cigarette smoking, genetic factors are also important determinants of COPD. In addition to Mendelian syndromes such as alpha-1 antitrypsin deficiency, many genomic regions that influence COPD susceptibility have been identified in genome-wide association studies. Similarly, multiple genomic regions associated with COPD-related phenotypes, such as quantitative emphysema measures, have been found. Identifying the functional variants and key genes within these association regions remains a major challenge. However, newly identified COPD susceptibility genes are already providing novel insights into COPD pathogenesis. Network-based approaches that leverage these genetic discoveries have the potential to assist in decoding the complex genetic architecture of COPD.

SUBSTRA: Supervised Bayesian Patient Stratification

Motivation

Patient stratification methods are key to the vision of precision medicine. Here, we consider transcriptional data to segment the patient population into subsets relevant to a given phenotype. Whereas most existing patient stratification methods focus either on predictive performance or interpretable features, we developed a method striking a balance between these two important goals.

Results

We introduce a Bayesian method called SUBSTRA that uses regularized biclustering to identify patient subtypes and interpretable subtype-specific transcript clusters. The method iteratively re-weights feature importance to optimize phenotype prediction performance by producing more phenotype-relevant patient subtypes. We investigate the performance of SUBSTRA in finding relevant features using simulated data and successfully benchmark it against state-of-the-art unsupervised stratification methods and supervised alternatives. Moreover, SUBSTRA achieves predictive performance competitive with the supervised benchmark methods and provides interpretable transcriptional features in diverse biological settings, such as drug response prediction, cancer diagnosis, or kidney transplant rejection.

Availability and implementation

The R code of SUBSTRA is available at https://github.com/sahandk/SUBSTRA.

Supplementary information

Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.

Radiomic measures from chest high-resolution computed tomography associated with lung function in sarcoidosis

INTRODUCTION

Pulmonary sarcoidosis is a rare heterogeneous lung disease of unknown aetiology, with limited treatment options. Phenotyping relies on clinical testing including visual scoring of chest radiographs. Objective radiomic measures from high-resolution computed tomography (HRCT) may provide additional information to assess disease status. As the first radiomics analysis in sarcoidosis, we investigate the potential of radiomic measures as biomarkers for sarcoidosis, by assessing 1) differences in HRCT between sarcoidosis subjects and healthy controls, 2) associations between radiomic measures and spirometry, and 3) trends between Scadding stages.

METHODS

Radiomic features were computed on HRCT in three anatomical planes. Linear regression compared global radiomic features between sarcoidosis subjects (n=73) and healthy controls (n=78), and identified associations with spirometry. Spatial differences in associations across the lung were investigated using functional data analysis. A subanalysis compared radiomic features between Scadding stages.

RESULTS

Global radiomic measures differed significantly between sarcoidosis subjects and controls (p<0.001 for skewness, kurtosis, fractal dimension and Geary's C), with differences in spatial radiomics most apparent in superior and lateral regions. In sarcoidosis subjects, there were significant associations between radiomic measures and spirometry, with a large association found between Geary's C and forced vital capacity (FVC) (p=0.008). Global radiomic measures differed significantly between Scadding stages (p<0.032), albeit nonlinearly, with stage IV having more extreme radiomic values. Radiomics explained 71.1% of the variability in FVC compared with 51.4% by Scadding staging alone.

CONCLUSIONS

Radiomic HRCT measures objectively differentiate disease abnormalities, associate with lung function and identify trends in Scadding stage, showing promise as quantitative biomarkers for pulmonary sarcoidosis.

Longitudinal Modeling of Lung Function Trajectories in Smokers with and without Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease

RATIONALE

The relationship between longitudinal lung function trajectories, chest computed tomography (CT) imaging, and genetic predisposition to chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) has not been explored.

OBJECTIVES

1) To model trajectories using a data-driven approach applied to longitudinal data spanning adulthood in the Normative Aging Study (NAS), and 2) to apply these models to demographically similar subjects in the COPDGene (Genetic Epidemiology of COPD) Study with detailed phenotypic characterization including chest CT.

METHODS

We modeled lung function trajectories in 1,060 subjects in NAS with a median follow-up time of 29 years. We assigned 3,546 non-Hispanic white males in COPDGene to these trajectories for further analysis. We assessed phenotypic and genetic differences between trajectories and across age strata.

MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS

We identified four trajectories in NAS with differing levels of maximum lung function and rate of decline. In COPDGene, 617 subjects (17%) were assigned to the lowest trajectory and had the greatest radiologic burden of disease (P < 0.01); 1,283 subjects (36%) were assigned to a low trajectory with evidence of airway disease preceding emphysema on CT; 1,411 subjects (40%) and 237 subjects (7%) were assigned to the remaining two trajectories and tended to have preserved lung function and negligible emphysema. The genetic contribution to these trajectories was as high as 83% (P = 0.02), and membership in lower lung function trajectories was associated with greater parental histories of COPD, decreased exercise capacity, greater dyspnea, and more frequent COPD exacerbations.

CONCLUSIONS

Data-driven analysis identifies four lung function trajectories. Trajectory membership has a genetic basis and is associated with distinct lung structural abnormalities.

From systems biology to P4 medicine: applications in respiratory medicine

Human health and disease are emergent properties of a complex, nonlinear, dynamic multilevel biological system: the human body. Systems biology is a comprehensive research strategy that has the potential to understand these emergent properties holistically. It stems from advancements in medical diagnostics, “omics” data and bioinformatic computing power. It paves the way forward towards “P4 medicine” (predictive, preventive, personalised and participatory), which seeks to better intervene preventively to preserve health or therapeutically to cure diseases. In this review, we: 1) discuss the principles of systems biology; 2) elaborate on how P4 medicine has the potential to shift healthcare from reactive medicine (treatment of illness) to predict and prevent illness, in a revolution that will be personalised in nature, probabilistic in essence and participatory driven; 3) review the current state of the art of network (systems) medicine in three prevalent respiratory diseases (chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, asthma and lung cancer); and 4) outline current challenges and future goals in the field.

Systems biology and network medicine have the potential to transform medical research and practicehttp://ow.ly/r3jR30hf35x