Dynamic Uncertain Causality Graph for Knowledge Representation and Reasoning: Utilization of Statistical Data and Domain Knowledge in Complex Cases

Mind Reasoning Manners: Enhancing Type Perception for Generalized Zero-Shot Logical Reasoning Over Text

Logical reasoning task involves diverse types of complex reasoning over text, based on the form of multiple-choice question answering (MCQA). Given the context, question and a set of options as the input, previous methods achieve superior performances on the full-data setting. However, the current benchmark dataset has the ideal assumption that the reasoning type distribution on the train split is close to the test split, which is inconsistent with many real application scenarios. To address it, there remain two problems to be studied: 1) how is the zero-shot capability of the models (train on seen types and test on unseen types)? and 2) how to enhance the perception of reasoning types for the models? For problem 1, we propose a new benchmark for generalized zero-shot logical reasoning, named ZsLR. It includes six splits based on the three type sampling strategies. For problem 2, a type-aware model TaCo is proposed. It utilizes the heuristic input reconstruction and builds a text graph with a global node. Incorporating graph reasoning and contrastive learning, TaCo can improve the type perception in the global representation. Extensive experiments on both the zero-shot and full-data settings prove the superiority of TaCo over the state-of-the-art (SOTA) methods. Also, we experiment and verify the generalization capability of TaCo on other logical reasoning dataset.

Exploring Temporal Community Structure via Network Embedding

Temporal community detection is helpful to discover and analyze significant groups or clusters hidden in dynamic networks in the real world. A variety of methods, such as modularity optimization, spectral method, and statistical network model, has been developed from diversified perspectives. Recently, network embedding-based technologies have made significant progress, and one can exploit deep learning superiority to network tasks. Although some methods for static networks have shown promising results in boosting community detection by integrating community embedding, they are not suitable for temporal networks and unable to capture their dynamics. Furthermore, the dynamic embedding methods only model network varying without considering community structures. Hence, in this article, we propose a novel unsupervised dynamic community detection model, which is based on network embedding and can effectively discover temporal communities and model dynamic networks. More specifically, we propose the community prior by introducing the Gaussian mixture model (GMM) in the variational autoencoder, which can obtain community information and better model the evolutionary characteristics of community structure and node embedding by utilizing the variant of gated recurrent unit (GRU). Extensive experiments conducted in real-world and artificial networks demonstrate that our proposed model has a better effect on improving the accuracy of dynamic community detection.

Differential disease diagnoses of epistaxis based on dynamic uncertain causality graph

PURPOSE

Epistaxis is a common symptom and can be caused by various diseases, including nasal diseases, systemic diseases, etc. Many misdiagnosis and missed diagnosis of epistaxis are caused by lack of clinical knowledge and experience, especially some interns and the clinicans in primary hospitals. To help inexperienced clinicans improve their diagnostic accuracies of epistaxis, a computer-aided diagnostic system based on Dynamic Uncertain Causality Graph (DUCG) was designed in this study.

METHODS

We build a visual epistaxis knowledge base based on medical experts' knowledge and experience. The knowledge base intuitively expresses the causal relationship among diseases, risk factors, symptoms, signs, laboratory checks, and image examinations. The DUCG inference algorithm well addresses the patients' clinical information with the knowledge base to deduce the currently suspected diseases and calculate the probability of each suspected disease.

RESULT

The model can differentially diagnose 24 diseases with epistaxis as the chief complaint. A third-party verification was performed, and the total diagnostic precision was 97.81%. In addition, the DUCG-based diagnostic model was applied in Jiaozhou city and Zhongxian county, China, covering hundreds of primary hospitals and clinics. So far, the clinicians using the model have all agreed with the diagnostic results. The 432 real-world application cases show that this model is good for the differential diagnoses of epistaxis.

CONCLUSION

The results show that the DUCG-based epistaxis diagnosis model has high diagnostic accuracy. It can assist primary clinicians in completing the differential diagnosis of epistaxis and can be accepted by clinicians.

Entropic Dynamic Time Warping Kernels for Co-Evolving Financial Time Series Analysis

Network representations are powerful tools to modeling the dynamic time-varying financial complex systems consisting of multiple co-evolving financial time series, e.g., stock prices. In this work, we develop a novel framework to compute the kernel-based similarity measure between dynamic time-varying financial networks. Specifically, we explore whether the proposed kernel can be employed to understand the structural evolution of the financial networks with time associated with standard kernel machines. For a set of time-varying financial networks with each vertex representing the individual time series of a different stock and each edge between a pair of time series representing the absolute value of their Pearson correlation, our start point is to compute the commute time (CT) matrix associated with the weighted adjacency matrix of the network structures, where each element of the matrix can be seen as the enhanced correlation value between pairwise stocks. For each network, we show how the CT matrix allows us to identify a reliable set of dominant correlated time series as well as an associated dominant probability distribution of the stock belonging to this set. Furthermore, we represent each original network as a discrete dominant Shannon entropy time series computed from the dominant probability distribution. With the dominant entropy time series for each pair of financial networks to hand, we develop an entropic dynamic time warping kernels through the classical dynamic time warping framework, for analyzing the financial time-varying networks. We show that the proposed kernel bridges the gap between graph kernels and the classical dynamic time warping framework for multiple financial time series analysis. Experiments on time-varying networks extracted through New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) database demonstrate that the effectiveness of the proposed method.

Computer-Aided Diagnoses for Sore Throat Based on Dynamic Uncertain Causality Graph

The causes of sore throat are complex. It can be caused by diseases of the pharynx, adjacent organs of the pharynx, or even systemic diseases. Therefore, a lack of medical knowledge and experience may cause misdiagnoses or missed diagnoses in sore throat diagnoses, especially for general practitioners in primary hospitals. This study aims to develop a computer-aided diagnostic system to assist clinicians in the differential diagnoses of sore throat. The computer-aided system is developed based on the Dynamic Uncertain Causality Graph (DUCG) theory. We cooperated with medical specialists to establish a sore throat DUCG model as the diagnostic knowledge base. The construction of the model integrates epidemiological data, knowledge, and clinical experience of medical specialists. The chain reasoning algorithm of the DUCG is used for the differential diagnoses of sore throat. The system can diagnose 27 sore throat-related diseases. The model builder initially tests it with 81 cases, and all cases are correctly diagnosed. Then the system is verified by the third-party hospital, and the diagnostic accuracy is 98%. Now, the system has been applied in hundreds of primary hospitals in Jiaozhou City, China, and the degree of recognition for doctors to the diagnostic results of the system is more than 99.9%. It is feasible to use DUCG for the differential diagnoses of sore throat, which can assist primary doctors in clinical diagnoses and the diagnostic results are acceptable to clinicians.

An Industrial Fault Diagnostic System Based on a Cubic Dynamic Uncertain Causality Graph

This study presents an industrial fault diagnosis system based on the cubic dynamic uncertain causality graph (cubic DUCG) used to model and diagnose industrial systems without sufficient data for model training. The system is developed based on cloud native technology. It contains two main parts, the diagnostic knowledge base and the inference method. The knowledge base was built by domain experts modularly based on professional knowledge. It represented the causality between events in the target industrial system in a visual and graphical form. During the inference, the cubic DUCG algorithm could dynamically generate the cubic causal graph according to the real-time data and perform the logic and probability calculations based on the generated cubic DUCG models, visually displaying the dynamic causal evolution of faults. To verify the system’s feasibility, we rebuild a fault-diagnosis model of the secondary circuit system of No. 1 at the Ningde nuclear power plant based on the new system. Twenty-four fault cases were used to test the diagnostic accuracy of the system, and all faults were correctly diagnosed. The results showed that it was feasible to use the cubic DUCG platform for fault diagnosis.

Knowledge Representation and Reasoning with an Extended Dynamic Uncertain Causality Graph under the Pythagorean Uncertain Linguistic Environment

A dynamic uncertain causality graph (DUCG) is a probabilistic graphical model for knowledge representation and reasoning, which has been widely used in many areas, such as probabilistic safety assessment, medical diagnosis, and fault diagnosis. However, the convention DUCG model fails to model experts’ knowledge precisely because knowledge parameters were crisp numbers or fuzzy numbers. In reality, domain experts tend to use linguistic terms to express their judgements due to professional limitations and information deficiency. To overcome the shortcomings of DUCGs, this article proposes a new type of DUCG model by integrating Pythagorean uncertain linguistic sets (PULSs) and the evaluation based on the distance from average solution (EDAS) method. In particular, experts express knowledge parameters in the form of the PULSs, which can depict the uncertainty and vagueness of expert knowledge. Furthermore, this model gathers the evaluations of experts on knowledge parameters and handles conflicting opinions among them. Moreover, a reasoning algorithm based on the EDAS method is proposed to improve the reliability and intelligence of expert systems. Lastly, an industrial example concerning the root cause analysis of abnormal aluminum electrolysis cell condition is provided to demonstrate the proposed DUCG model.

AI-aided general clinical diagnoses verified by third-parties with dynamic uncertain causality graph extended to also include classification

Artificial intelligence (AI)-aided general clinical diagnosis is helpful to primary clinicians. Machine learning approaches have problems of generalization, interpretability, etc. Dynamic Uncertain Causality Graph (DUCG) based on uncertain casual knowledge provided by clinical experts does not have these problems. This paper extends DUCG to include the representation and inference algorithm for non-causal classification relationships. As a part of general clinical diagnoses, six knowledge bases corresponding to six chief complaints (arthralgia, dyspnea, cough and expectoration, epistaxis, fever with rash and abdominal pain) were constructed through constructing subgraphs relevant to a chief complaint separately and synthesizing them together as the knowledge base of the chief complaint. A subgraph represents variables and causalities related to a single disease that may cause the chief complaint, regardless of which hospital department the disease belongs to. Verified by two groups of third-party hospitals independently, total diagnostic precisions of the six knowledge bases ranged in 96.5–100%, in which the precision for every disease was no less than 80%.

The Cubic Dynamic Uncertain Causality Graph: A Methodology for Temporal Process Modeling and Diagnostic Logic Inference

To meet the demand for dynamic and highly reliable real-time fault diagnosis for complex systems, we extend the dynamic uncertain causality graph (DUCG) by proposing novel temporal causality modeling and reasoning methods. A new methodology, the Cubic DUCG, is therefore developed. It exploits an efficient scheme for compactly representing and accurately reasoning about the dynamic causalities in the system fault-spreading process. The Cubic DUCG is characterized by: 1) continuous generation of a causality graph that allows for causal connections penetrating among any number of time slices and discards the restrictive assumptions (about the underlying graph structure) upon which the existing research commonly relies; 2) a modeling scheme of complex causalities that includes dynamic negative feedback loops in a natural and intuitive manner; 3) a rigorous and reliable inference algorithm based on complete causalities that reflect real-time fault situations rather than on the cumulative aggregation of static time slices; and 4) some solutions to causality simplification and reduction, graphical transformation, and logical reasoning, for the sake of reducing the reasoning complexity. A series of fault diagnosis experiments on a nuclear power plant simulator verifies the accuracy, robustness, and efficiency of the proposed methodology.

Development of an artificial intelligence diagnostic model based on dynamic uncertain causality graph for the differential diagnosis of dyspnea

Dyspnea is one of the most common manifestations of patients with pulmonary disease, myocardial dysfunction, and neuromuscular disorder, among other conditions. Identifying the causes of dyspnea in clinical practice, especially for the general practitioner, remains a challenge. This pilot study aimed to develop a computer-aided tool for improving the efficiency of differential diagnosis. The disease set with dyspnea as the chief complaint was established on the basis of clinical experience and epidemiological data. Differential diagnosis approaches were established and optimized by clinical experts. The artificial intelligence (AI) diagnosis model was constructed according to the dynamic uncertain causality graph knowledge-based editor. Twenty-eight diseases and syndromes were included in the disease set. The model contained 132 variables of symptoms, signs, and serological and imaging parameters. Medical records from the electronic hospital records of Suining Central Hospital were randomly selected. A total of 202 discharged patients with dyspnea as the chief complaint were included for verification, in which the diagnoses of 195 cases were coincident with the record certified as correct. The overall diagnostic accuracy rate of the model was 96.5%. In conclusion, the diagnostic accuracy of the AI model is promising and may compensate for the limitation of medical experience.