Radial Basis Functions With Adaptive Input and Composite Trend Representation for Portfolio Selection

Multitrend Conditional Value at Risk for Portfolio Optimization

Trend representation has been attracting more and more attention recently in portfolio optimization (PO) via machine learning methods. It adopts concepts and phenomena from the field of empirical and behavioral finance when little prior knowledge is obtained or strict statistical assumptions cannot be guaranteed. It is used mostly in estimating the expected asset returns, but hardly in measuring risk. To fill this gap, we propose a novel multitrend conditional value at risk (MT-CVaR), which embeds multiple trends and their influences in CVaR. Besides, we propose a novel PO model with this MT-CVaR as the risk metric and then design a solving algorithm based on the interior point method to compute the portfolio. Extensive experiments on six benchmark datasets from diverse financial markets with different frequencies show that MT-CVaR achieves the state-of-the-art investing performance and risk management.

Cardinality Constrained Portfolio Optimization via Alternating Direction Method of Multipliers

Inspired by sparse learning, the Markowitz mean-variance model with a sparse regularization term is popularly used in sparse portfolio optimization. However, in penalty-based portfolio optimization algorithms, the cardinality level of the resultant portfolio relies on the choice of the regularization parameter. This brief formulates the mean-variance model as a cardinality ( l0 -norm) constrained nonconvex optimization problem, in which we can explicitly specify the number of assets in the portfolio. We then use the alternating direction method of multipliers (ADMMs) concept to develop an algorithm to solve the constrained nonconvex problem. Unlike some existing algorithms, the proposed algorithm can explicitly control the portfolio cardinality. In addition, the dynamic behavior of the proposed algorithm is derived. Numerical results on four real-world datasets demonstrate the superiority of our approach over several state-of-the-art algorithms.

Sparse Index Tracking With K-Sparsity or ϵ-Deviation Constraint via ℓ0-Norm Minimization

Sparse index tracking, as one of the passive investment strategies, is to track a benchmark financial index via constructing a portfolio with a few assets in a market index. It can be considered as parameter learning in an adaptive system, in which we periodically update the selected assets and their investment percentages based on the sliding window approach. However, many existing algorithms for sparse index tracking cannot explicitly and directly control the number of assets or the tracking error. This article formulates sparse index tracking as two constrained optimization problems and then proposes two algorithms, namely, nonnegative orthogonal matching pursuit with projected gradient descent (NNOMP-PGD) and alternating direction method of multipliers for l0 -norm (ADMM- l0 ). The NNOMP-PGD aims at minimizing the tracking error subject to the number of selected assets less than or equal to a predefined number. With the NNOMP-PGD, investors can directly and explicitly control the number of selected assets. The ADMM- l0 aims at minimizing the number of selected assets subject to the tracking error that is upper bounded by a preset threshold. It can directly and explicitly control the tracking error. The convergence of the two proposed algorithms is also presented. With our algorithms, investors can explicitly and directly control the number of selected assets or the tracking error of the resultant portfolio. In addition, numerical experiments demonstrate that the proposed algorithms outperform the existing approaches.

Doubly elastic net regularized online portfolio optimization with transaction costs

Online portfolio optimization with transaction costs is a big challenge in large-scale intelligent computing community, since its undersample from rapidly-changing market and complexity from varying transaction costs. In this paper, we focus on this problem and solve it by machine learning system. Specifically, we reformulate the optimization problem with the minimization over simplex containing three items, which are negative expected return, the elastic net regularization of transaction costs controlled term and portfolio variable, respectively. We propose to apply linearized augmented Lagrangian method (LALM) and the alternating direction method of multipliers (ADMM) to solve the optimization model in a higher efficiency, meanwhile theoretically guarantee their convergence and deduce closed-form solutions of their subproblems in each iteration. Furthermore, we conduct extensive experiments on five benchmark datasets from real market to demonstrate that the proposed algorithms outperform compared state-of-the-art strategies in most cases in six dimensions.

Bio-Inspired Machine Learning for Distributed Confidential Multi-Portfolio Selection Problem

The recently emerging multi-portfolio selection problem lacks a proper framework to ensure that client privacy and database secrecy remain intact. Since privacy is of major concern these days, in this paper, we propose a variant of Beetle Antennae Search (BAS) known as Distributed Beetle Antennae Search (DBAS) to optimize multi-portfolio selection problems without violating the privacy of individual portfolios. DBAS is a swarm-based optimization algorithm that solely shares the gradients of portfolios among the swarm without sharing private data or portfolio stock information. DBAS is a hybrid framework, and it inherits the swarm-like nature of the Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) algorithm with the BAS updating criteria. It ensures a robust and fast optimization of the multi-portfolio selection problem whilst keeping the privacy and secrecy of each portfolio intact. Since multi-portfolio selection problems are a recent direction for the field, no work has been done concerning the privacy of the database nor the privacy of stock information of individual portfolios. To test the robustness of DBAS, simulations were conducted consisting of four categories of multi-portfolio problems, where in each category, three portfolios were selected. To achieve this, 200 days worth of real-world stock data were utilized from 25 NASDAQ stock companies. The simulation results prove that DBAS not only ensures portfolio privacy but is also efficient and robust in selecting optimal portfolios.

Uncertainty-Aware Portfolio Management With Risk-Sensitive Multiagent Network

As deep neural networks (DNNs) have gained considerable attention in recent years, there have been several cases applying DNNs to portfolio management (PM). Although some researchers have experimentally demonstrated its ability to make a profit, it is still insufficient to use in real situations because existing studies have failed to answer how risky investment decisions are. Furthermore, even though the objective of PM is to maximize returns within a risk tolerance, they overlook the predictive uncertainty of DNNs in the process of risk management. To overcome these limitations, we propose a novel framework called risk-sensitive multiagent network (RSMAN), which includes risk-sensitive agents (RSAs) and a risk adaptive portfolio generator (RAPG). Standard DNNs do not understand the risks of their decision, whereas RSA can take risk-sensitive decisions by estimating market uncertainty and parameter uncertainty. Acting as a trader, this agent is trained via reinforcement learning from dynamic trading simulations to estimate the distribution of reward and via unsupervised learning to assess parameter uncertainty without labeled data. We also present an RAPG that can generate a portfolio fitting the user's risk appetite without retraining by exploiting the estimated information from the RSAs. We tested our framework on the U.S. and Korean real financial markets to demonstrate the practicality of the RSMAN.

Minimax and Biobjective Portfolio Selection Based on Collaborative Neurodynamic Optimization

Portfolio selection is one of the important issues in financial investments. This article is concerned with portfolio selection based on collaborative neurodynamic optimization. The classic Markowitz mean-variance (MV) framework and its variant mean conditional value-at-risk (CVaR) are formulated as minimax and biobjective portfolio selection problems. Neurodynamic approaches are then applied for solving these optimization problems. For each of the problems, multiple neural networks work collaboratively to characterize the efficient frontier by means of particle swarm optimization (PSO)-based weight optimization. Experimental results with stock data from four major markets show the performance and characteristics of the collaborative neurodynamic approaches to the portfolio optimization problems.