Hierarchical-Bayesian-Based Sparse Stochastic Configuration Networks for Construction of Prediction Intervals

Dual Accuracy-Quality-Driven Neural Network for Prediction Interval Generation

Accurate uncertainty quantification is necessary to enhance the reliability of deep learning (DL) models in real-world applications. In the case of regression tasks, prediction intervals (PIs) should be provided along with the deterministic predictions of DL models. Such PIs are useful or "high-quality (HQ)" as long as they are sufficiently narrow and capture most of the probability density. In this article, we present a method to learn PIs for regression-based neural networks (NNs) automatically in addition to the conventional target predictions. In particular, we train two companion NNs: one that uses one output, the target estimate, and another that uses two outputs, the upper and lower bounds of the corresponding PI. Our main contribution is the design of a novel loss function for the PI-generation network that takes into account the output of the target-estimation network and has two optimization objectives: minimizing the mean PI width and ensuring the PI integrity using constraints that maximize the PI probability coverage implicitly. Furthermore, we introduce a self-adaptive coefficient that balances both objectives within the loss function, which alleviates the task of fine-tuning. Experiments using a synthetic dataset, eight benchmark datasets, and a real-world crop yield prediction dataset showed that our method was able to maintain a nominal probability coverage and produce significantly narrower PIs without detriment to its target estimation accuracy when compared to those PIs generated by three state-of-the-art neural-network-based methods. In other words, our method was shown to produce higher quality PIs.

Conformal Loss-Controlling Prediction

Conformal prediction (CP) is a learning framework controlling prediction coverage of prediction sets, which can be built on any learning algorithm for point prediction. This work proposes a learning framework named conformal loss-controlling prediction, which extends CP to the situation where the value of a loss function needs to be controlled. Different from existing works about risk-controlling prediction sets and conformal risk control with the purpose of controlling the expected values of loss functions, the proposed approach in this article focuses on the loss for any test object, which is an extension of CP from miscoverage loss to some general loss. The controlling guarantee is proved under the assumption of exchangeability of data in finite-sample cases and the framework is tested empirically for classification with a class-varying loss and statistical postprocessing of numerical weather forecasting applications, which are introduced as point-wise classification and point-wise regression problems. All theoretical analysis and experimental results confirm the effectiveness of our loss-controlling approach.

A Lightweight Learning Method for Stochastic Configuration Networks Using Non-Inverse Solution

Stochastic configuration networks (SCNs) face time-consuming issues when dealing with complex modeling tasks that usually require a mass of hidden nodes to build an enormous network. An important reason behind this issue is that SCNs always employ the Moore–Penrose generalized inverse method with high complexity to update the output weights in each increment. To tackle this problem, this paper proposes a lightweight SCNs, called L-SCNs. First, to avoid using the Moore–Penrose generalized inverse method, a positive definite equation is proposed to replace the over-determined equation, and the consistency of their solution is proved. Then, to reduce the complexity of calculating the output weight, a low complexity method based on Cholesky decomposition is proposed. The experimental results based on both the benchmark function approximation and real-world problems including regression and classification applications show that L-SCNs are sufficiently lightweight.