Predicting spatio‐temporal distributions of migratory populations using Gaussian process modelling

A gradual migratory divide determines not only the direction of migration but also migration strategy of a social migrant bird

Migratory divides separate populations of migratory animals, facilitating the evolution of intraspecific differences in migration strategies. Migration strategies are expected to be different for birds using different flyways and environments, but the knowledge regarding the impact of the flyway on individual migration strategies is scarce. By using satellite tracking and neckband resightings, we reveal the existence and structure of a gradual migratory divide between two European flyway populations of greylag geese Anser anser. Birds breeding at the far end of the Gulf of Bothnia in the Baltic Sea coast use the Western Flyway, those breeding in the Gulf of Finland the Central Flyway and those breeding between these extremes scatter to the two flyways. By using Gaussian process modelling, we show that migration strategies differed between the flyways. The birds using the Western Flyway migrated earlier in autumn, performed longer annual migration and made a clear stopover during migration, whereas the birds using the Central Flyway flew directly to their wintering sites. The gradual migratory divide that also divides migration strategies provides insights into migratory divides on birds with learned migration. Distinct migration strategies in different flyways provide exciting possibilities to further study the factors driving migration strategies.