Identifying Counterfeit Cigarettes Using Environmental Pollen Analysis: An Improved Procedure

Cigarette paper as evidence: Forensic profiling using ATR-FTIR spectroscopy and machine learning algorithms

This research highlights the underestimated significance of cigarette paper as evidence at crime scenes. The primary objective is to distinguish cigarette paper from similar-looking alternatives, addressing the first research objective. The second objective involves identifying cigarette paper brands using attenuated total reflectance Fourier transform infrared (ATR-FTIR) spectroscopy and machine learning (ML) algorithms. Accurate differentiation of cigarette paper from normal paper is emphasized. ATR-FTIR spectroscopy, coupled with principal component analysis (PCA) for dimensionality reduction, is employed for brand identification. Among fifteen ML algorithms compared, the CatBoost classifier excels for both objectives. This research presents a non-destructive, effective method for studying cigarette paper, contributing valuable insights to crime scene investigations.

Forensic botany: who?, how?, where?, when?

Plants are a good source of biological forensic evidence; this is due to their ubiquity, their ability to collect reference material, and their sensitivity to environmental changes. However, in many countries, botanical evidence is recognised as being scientifically. Botanical evidence is not mostly used for perpertration, instead it tends to serve as circumstantial evidence. Plant materials constitute the basis, among others, for linking a suspect or object to a crime scene or a victim, confirming or not confirming an alibi, determining the post-mortem interval, and determining the origin of food/object. Forensic botany entails field work, knowledge of plants, understanding ecosystem processes, and a basis understaning of geoscience. In this study, experiments with mammal cadavers were conducted to determine the occurence of an event. The simplest criterion characterising botanical evidence is its size. Therefore, macroremains include whole plants or their larger fragments (e.g. tree bark, leaves, seeds, prickles, and thorns), whereas microscopic evidence includes palynomorphs (spores and pollen grains), diatoms, and tissues. Botanical methods allow for an analysis to be repeated multiple times and the test material is easy to collect in the field. Forensic botany can be supplemented with molecular analyses, which, although specific and sensitive, still require validation.

Measuring anomalies in cigarette sales using official data from Spanish provinces: Are the anomalies detected by the Empty Pack Surveys (EPSs) used by Transnational Tobacco Companies (TTCs) the only anomalies?

INTRODUCTION

There is a literature that questions the veracity of the studies commissioned by transnational tobacco companies (TTCs) to measure the illicit tobacco trade. Furthermore, there are studies that have indicated that the empty pack surveys (EPSs) ordered by TTCs overestimate the size of this trade. This study simultaneously analyzed whether the EPSs established in each of the 47 Spanish provinces were accurate and measured anomalies observed in provinces where sales exceed expected values.

METHODS

To achieve the objectives of this study, provincial data on cigarette sales, prices and GDP per capita were used. These data were modeled with machine learning techniques that are widely used to detect anomalies in other areas.

RESULTS

The magnitude of the average anomaly in provinces where sales are higher than their expected values exceeds 40%, while the average anomaly in provinces where sales are lower than their expected values (as detected by the EPSs) is <15%. Furthermore, the results reveal that there is a clear geographical pattern to the provinces in which sales below reasonable values are observed. In addition, the values provided by the EPSs in Spain, as indicated in the previous literature, are slightly overestimated. Finally, some regions bordering other countries or that are highly influenced by tourism have observed sales that are higher than their expected values.

CONCLUSIONS

Cooperation between countries in their tobacco control policies can have better effects than policies developed based on information from a single country. The lack of control over the transactions of tourists and the inhabitants of bordering countries can cause important anomalies that distort the understanding of tobacco consumption that governments have based on official data.