Long-term mortality in the Intermediate care after emergency abdominal surgery (InCare) trial-A post-hoc follow-up study

Validation of the NELA risk prediction model in emergency abdominal surgery

Risk prediction models are frequently used to identify high-risk patients undergoing emergency laparotomy. The National Emergency Laparotomy Audit (NELA) developed a risk prediction model specifically for emergency laparotomy patients, which was recently updated. In this study, we validated the updated NELA model in an external population. Furthermore, we compared it with three other risk prediction models: the original NELA model, the Portsmouth Physiological and Operative Severity Score for the enUmeration of Mortality and morbidity (P-POSSUM) model, and the American Society of Anesthesiologists Physical Status (ASA-PS). We included adult patients undergoing emergency laparotomy at Zealand University Hospital, from March 2017 to January 2019, and Herlev Hospital, from November 2017 to January 2020. Variables included in the risk prediction models were collected retrospectively from the electronic patient records. Discrimination of the risk prediction models was evaluated with area under the curve (AUC) statistics, and calibration was assessed with Cox calibration regression. The primary outcome was 30-day mortality. Out of 1226 included patients, 146 patients (11.9%) died within 30 days. AUC (95% confidence interval) for 30-day mortality was 0.85 (0.82-0.88) for the updated NELA model, 0.84 (0.81-0.87) for the original NELA model, 0.81 (0.77-0.84) for the P-POSSUM model, and 0.76 (0.72-0.79) for the ASA-PS model. Calibration showed underestimation of mortality risk for both the updated NELA, original NELA and P-POSSUM models. The updated NELA risk prediction model performs well in this external validation study and may be used in similar settings. However, the model should only be used to discriminate between low- and high-risk patients, and not for prediction of individual risk due to underestimation of mortality.

Impact on 6-month outcomes of hospital trajectory in critically ill older patients: analysis of the ICE-CUB2 clinical trial

Background

Little is known about the impact of hospital trajectory on survival and functional decline of older critically ill patients. We evaluate 6-month outcomes after admission to: intensive care units (ICU), intermediate care units (IMCU) or acute medical wards (AMW).

Methods

Data from the randomised prospective multicentre clinical trial ICE-CUB2 was secondarily analysed. Inclusion criteria were: presenting at emergency departments in critical condition; age ≥ 75 years; activity of daily living (ADL) ≥ 4; preserved nutritional status; and no active cancer. A Cox model was fitted to compare survival according to admission destination adjusting for patient characteristics. Sensitivity analysis using multiple imputation for missing data and propensity score matching were performed.

Results

Among 3036 patients, 1675 (55%) were women; median age was 85 [81–99] years; simplified acute physiology score (SAPS-3) 62 [55–69]; 1448 (47%) were hospitalised in an ICU, 504 in IMCU (17%), and 1084 (36%) in AMW. Six-month mortality was 629 (44%), 155 (31%) and 489 (45%) after admission in an ICU, IMCU and AMW (p < 0.001), respectively. In multivariate analysis, AMW admission was associated with worse 6-month survival (HR 1.31, 95% CI 1.04–1.63) in comparison with IMCU admission, after adjusting for age, gender, comorbidities, ADL, SAPS-3 and diagnosis. Survival was not significantly different between patients admitted in an ICU and an IMCU (HR 1.17, 95% CI 0.95–1.46). Sensitivity analysis using multiple imputation for missing data and propensity score matching found similar results. Hospital destination was not significantly associated with the composite criterion loss of 1-point ADL or mortality. Physical and mental components of the 12-Item Short-Form Health Survey were significantly lower in the acute medical ward group (34.3 [27.5–41.7], p = 0.037 and 44.3 [38.6–48.6], p = 0.028, respectively) than in the ICU group (34.7 [28.4–45.3] and 45.5 [40.0–50.0], respectively) and IMCU group (35.7 [29.7–43.8] and 44.5 [39.7–48.4], respectively).

Conclusions

Admission in an AMW was associated with worse 6-month survival in older critically ill patients in comparison with IMCU admission, with no difference of survival between ICU and IMCU admission. There were no clinically relevant differences in quality of life in each group. These results should be confirmed in specific studies and raise the question of dedicated geriatric IMCUs.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s13613-022-01042-4.