Validation of the modified Ranson versus Glasgow score for pancreatitis in a Singaporean population

A modified Ranson score to predict disease severity, organ failure, pancreatic necrosis, and pancreatic infection in patients with acute pancreatitis

Background

Although there are several scoring systems currently used to predict the severity of acute pancreatitis, each of them has limitations. Determine the accuracy of a modified Ranson score in predicting disease severity and prognosis in patients with acute pancreatitis (AP).

Methods

AP patients admitted or transferred to our institution were allocated to a modeling group (n = 304) or a validation group (n = 192). A modified Ranson score was determined by excluding the fluid sequestration parameter and including the modified computed tomography severity index (CTSI). The diagnostic performance of the modified Ranson score was compared with the Ranson score, modified CTSI, and bedside index of severity in acute pancreatitis (BISAP) score in predicting disease severity, organ failure, pancreatic necrosis and pancreatic infection.

Results

The modified Ranson score had significantly better accuracy that the Ranson score in predicting all four outcome measures in the modeling group and in the validation group (all p < 0.05). For the modeling group the modified Ranson score had the best accuracy for predicting disease severity and organ failure, and second-best accuracy for predicting pancreatic necrosis and pancreatic infection. For the verification group, it had the best accuracy for predicting organ failure, second-best accuracy for predicting disease severity and pancreatic necrosis, and third-best accuracy for predicting pancreatic infection.

Conclusion

The modified Ranson score provided better accuracy than the Ranson score in predicting disease severity, organ failure, pancreatic necrosis and pancreatic infection. Relative to the other scoring systems, the modified Ranson system was superior in predicting organ failure.

The modified computed tomography severity index combined with low skeletal muscle mass can better predict the severity of hypertriglyceridemia-induced pancreatitis

BACKGROUND

Body composition parameters are associated with hypertriglyceridemia-induced pancreatitis (HTGP). This study investigated the association between the quantity of muscle assessed using computed tomography (CT) and the severity of HTGP.

METHODS

The modified CT severity index (MCTSI) was calculated from admission examination data. Patients' characteristics and body composition parameters were collected. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were also performed. The receiver operating characteristic curves and corresponding area under the curves (AUC) were calculated to test the efficiency of the model. A nomogram was then constructed.

RESULTS

Of the 175 included patients, 138 were male, of which 85 had moderately severe to severe HTGP. Patients with low skeletal muscle mass (LSMM) and high MCTSI were significantly more likely to have moderately severe to severe HTGP. Patients with LSMM had lower body mass index, lower HDL-C level, higher amylase level, prevalence of surgery, shorter umbilical waist circumference, and longer length of hospital stay. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses confirmed that female sex, lipase, total cholesterol, LSMM-MCTSI (P = .004, odds ratio = 23.105), and albumin were risk factors. The TOTAL model that combined LSMM-MCTSI and clinical risk parameters performed best (AUCs = 0.875), followed by other models (LSMM-MCTSI: AUCs = 0.762, MCTSI: AUCs = 0.728). The Delong test revealed significant difference. Finally, a nomogram was developed to predict the severity of HTGP.

CONCLUSION

The performance of MCTSI in predicting severity can be improved by considering LSMM, which is a promising strategy for the treatment of HTGP.

The characteristics and prognostic role of acute abdominal on-admission pain in acute pancreatitis: A prospective cohort analysis of 1432 cases

INTRODUCTION

Pain is the most common symptom in acute pancreatitis (AP) and is among the diagnostic criteria. Therefore, we aimed to characterize acute abdominal pain in AP.

METHODS

The Hungarian Pancreatic Study Group prospectively collected multicentre clinical data on 1435 adult AP patients between 2012 and 2017. Pain was characterized by its intensity (mild or intense), duration prior to admission (hours), localization (nine regions of the abdomen) and type (sharp, dull or cramping).

RESULTS

97.3% of patients (n = 1394) had pain on admission. Of the initial population with acute abdominal pain, 727 patients answered questions about pain intensity, 1148 about pain type, 1134 about pain localization and 1202 about pain duration. Pain was mostly intense (70%, n = 511/727), characterized by cramping (61%, n = 705/1148), mostly starting less than 24 h prior to admission (56.7%, n = 682/1202). Interestingly, 50.9% of the patients (n = 577/1134) had atypical pain, which means pain other than epigastric or belt-like upper abdominal pain. We observed a higher proportion of peripancreatic fluid collection (19.5% vs. 11.0%; p = 0.009) and oedematous pancreas (8.4% vs. 3.1%; p = 0.016) with intense pain. Sharp pain was associated with AP severity (OR = 2.481 95% CI: 1.550-3.969) and increased mortality (OR = 2.263, 95% CI: 1.199-4.059) compared to other types. Longstanding pain (>72 h) on admission was not associated with outcomes. Pain characteristics showed little association with the patient's baseline characteristics.

CONCLUSION

A comprehensive patient interview should include questions about pain characteristics, including pain type. Patients with sharp and intense pain might need special monitoring and tailored pain management.

SIGNIFICANCE

Acute abdominal pain is the leading presenting symptom in acute pancreatitis; however, we currently lack specific guidelines for pain assessment and management. In our cohort analysis, intense and sharp pain on admission was associated with higher odds for severe AP and several systemic and local complications. Therefore, a comprehensive patient interview should include questions about pain characteristics and patients with intense and sharp pain might need closer monitoring.

Sequential organ failure assessment score is superior to other prognostic indices in acute pancreatitis

BACKGROUND

Acute pancreatitis (AP) is a common surgical condition, with severe AP (SAP) potentially lethal. Many prognostic indices, including; acute physiology and chronic health evaluation II score (APACHE II), bedside index of severity in acute pancreatitis (BISAP), Glasgow score, harmless acute pancreatitis score (HAPS), Ranson's score, and sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA) evaluate AP severity and predict mortality.

AIM

To evaluate these indices' utility in predicting severity, intensive care unit (ICU) admission, and mortality.

METHODS

A retrospective analysis of 653 patients with AP from July 2009 to September 2016 was performed. The demographic, clinical profile, and patient outcomes were collected. SAP was defined as per the revised Atlanta classification. Values for APACHE II score, BISAP, HAPS, and SOFA within 24 h of admission were retrospectively obtained based on laboratory results and patient evaluation recorded on a secure hospital-based online electronic platform. Data with < 10% missing data was imputed via mean substitution. Other patient information such as demographics, disease etiology, and patient outcomes were also derived from electronic medical records.

RESULTS

The mean age was 58.7 ± 17.5 years, with 58.7% males. Gallstones (n = 404, 61.9%), alcohol (n = 38, 5.8%), and hypertriglyceridemia (n = 19, 2.9%) were more common aetiologies. 81 (12.4%) patients developed SAP, 20 (3.1%) required ICU admission, and 12 (1.8%) deaths were attributed to SAP. Ranson's score and APACHE-II demonstrated the highest sensitivity in predicting SAP (92.6%, 80.2% respectively), ICU admission (100%), and mortality (100%). While SOFA and BISAP demonstrated lowest sensitivity in predicting SAP (13.6%, 24.7% respectively), ICU admission (40.0%, 25.0% respectively) and mortality (50.0%, 25.5% respectively). However, SOFA demonstrated the highest specificity in predicting SAP (99.7%), ICU admission (99.2%), and mortality (98.9%). SOFA demonstrated the highest positive predictive value, positive likelihood ratio, diagnostic odds ratio, and overall accuracy in predicting SAP, ICU admission, and mortality. SOFA and Ranson's score demonstrated the highest area under receiver-operator curves at 48 h in predicting SAP (0.966, 0.857 respectively), ICU admission (0.943, 0.946 respectively), and mortality (0.968, 0.917 respectively).

CONCLUSION

The SOFA and 48-h Ranson's scores accurately predict severity, ICU admission, and mortality in AP, with more favorable statistics for the SOFA score.

Accuracy of conventional and novel scoring systems in predicting severity and outcomes of acute pancreatitis: a retrospective study

BACKGROUND

Recently, several novel scoring systems have been developed to evaluate the severity and outcomes of acute pancreatitis. This study aimed to compare the effectiveness of novel and conventional scoring systems in predicting the severity and outcomes of acute pancreatitis.

METHODS

Patients treated between January 2003 and August 2020 were reviewed. The Ranson score (RS), Glasgow score (GS), bedside index of severity in acute pancreatitis (BISAP), pancreatic activity scoring system (PASS), and Chinese simple scoring system (CSSS) were determined within 48 h after admission. Multivariate logistic regression was used for severity, mortality, and organ failure prediction. Optimum cutoffs were identified using receiver operating characteristic curve analysis.

RESULTS

A total of 1848 patients were included. The areas under the curve (AUCs) of RS, GS, BISAP, PASS, and CSSS for severity prediction were 0.861, 0.865, 0.829, 0.778, and 0.816, respectively. The corresponding AUCs for mortality prediction were 0.693, 0.736, 0.789, 0.858, and 0.759. The corresponding AUCs for acute respiratory distress syndrome prediction were 0.745, 0.784, 0.834, 0.936, and 0.820. Finally, the corresponding AUCs for acute renal failure prediction were 0.707, 0.734, 0.781, 0.868, and 0.816.

CONCLUSIONS

RS and GS predicted severity better than they predicted mortality and organ failure, while PASS predicted mortality and organ failure better. BISAP and CSSS performed equally well in severity and outcome predictions.

Current status of diagnosis and Mesenchymal stem cells therapy for acute pancreatitis

Acute pancreatitis (AP) is an acute gastrointestinal disorder that is the most common and requiring emergency hospitalization. Its incidence is increasing worldwide, thus increasing the burden of medical services. Approximately 20% of the patients develop moderate to severe necrotizing pancreatitis associated with pancreatic or peri-pancreatic tissue necrosis and multiple organ failure. There are many reports about the anti-inflammatory effect of mesenchymal stem cells (MSCs) on pancreatitis and the repair of tissue damage. MSCs cells come from a wide range of sources, autologous MSCs come from bone marrow and allogeneic MSCs such as umbilical cord blood MSCs, placenta-derived MSCs, etc. The wide source is not only an advantage of MSCs but also a disadvantage of MSCs. Because of different cell sources and different methods of collection and preparation, it is impossible to establish a unified standard method for evaluation of efficacy. The biggest advantage of iMSCs is that it can be prepared by a standardized process, and can be prepared on a large scale, which makes it easier to commercialize. This paper reviews the present status of diagnosis and progress of MSCs therapy for AP.

Are traditional scoring systems for severity stratification of acute pancreatitis sufficient?

BACKGROUNDS/AIMS

Ranson's score (RS) and Glasgow score (GS) have been utilized to stratify the severity of acute pancreatitis (AP). The aim of this study was to validate RS and GS for stratifying the severity of acute pancreatitis and audit our experience of managing AP.

METHODS

We conducted a retrospective review of patients treated for AP from July 2009 to September 2016. Final severity was determined using the revised Atlanta classification. Mortality and complications were analyzed.

RESULTS

From July 2009 to September 2016, a total of 675 patients with a diagnosis of AP were admitted at the hospital. Of them, 669 patients who had sufficient data were analyzed. Their average age±SD was 58.7±17.4 years (range, 21-98 years). There was a male preponderance (n=393, 53.8%). A total of 82 (12.3%) patients had eventual severe pancreatitis. RS demonstrated a sensitivity of 92.7% and a specificity of 52.8% with a positive predictive value (PPV) of 21.5% and a negative predictive value (NPV) of 98.1%. GS demonstrated a sensitivity of 76.8% and a specificity of 69.2% with a PPV of 25.8% and a NPV of 95.5%. For severity prediction, areas under the curve (AUCs) for RS and GS were 0.848 (95% CI: 0.819-0.875) and 0.784 (95% CI: 0.750-0.814), respectively (p=0.003). Twelve (1.6%) patients died in the hospital.

CONCLUSIONS

RS has higher sensitivity, NPV and AUC for predicting severity of AP than GS.

Prognostic value of admission red blood cell distribution width in acute pancreatitis: a systematic review

BACKGROUND

Red blood cell distribution width (RDW) has been proved to be a strong prognostic marker in various diseases such as cardiovascular diseases, renal failure, viral hepatitis etc. But its prognostic value in acute pancreatitis (AP) remains controversial. The aim of this systematic review is to determine the prognostic value of RDW in AP.

METHODS

PubMed, Cochrane, Google scholar, and Web of Science were searched on March 2, 2017 to identify studies that investigated the association between RDW and the prognosis of AP. The eligible studies were reviewed and summarized.

RESULTS

In total, 2008 articles were screened. Seven studies were included in the final analysis. Five studies estimated the prognostic value of RDW using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis, and multivariable analysis was performed in only four studies. The major design weaknesses of eligible studies are their retrospective design and some of potential confounding factors were not adjusted.

CONCLUSIONS

Current evidence and findings support that high admission RDW can be used as a biomarker to identify the AP patients who are at high risk of mortality. However, due to the weaknesses of available studies, further well-designed studies with large sample size and various outcome endpoints are needed to rigorously evaluate the prognostic value of RDW in AP.