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Terranova N, Venkatakrishnan K. Machine Learning in Modeling Disease Trajectory and Treatment Outcomes: An Emerging Enabler for Model-Informed Precision Medicine. Clin Pharmacol Ther 2024; 115:720-726. [PMID: 38105646 DOI: 10.1002/cpt.3153] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/13/2023] [Accepted: 12/11/2023] [Indexed: 12/19/2023]
Abstract
The increasing breadth and depth of resolution in biological and clinical data, including -omics and real-world data, requires advanced analytical techniques like artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) to fully appreciate the impact of multi-dimensional population variability in intrinsic and extrinsic factors on disease progression and treatment outcomes. Integration of advanced data analytics in Quantitative Pharmacology is crucial for drug-disease knowledge management, enabling precise, efficient and inclusive drug development and utilization - an application we refer to as model-informed precision medicine. AI/ML enables characterization of the molecular and clinical sources of heterogeneity in disease trajectory, advancing end point qualification and biomarker discovery, and informing patient enrichment for proof-of-concept studies as well as trial designs for efficient evidence generation incorporating digital twins and virtual control arms. Explainable ML methods are valuable in elucidating predictors of efficacy and safety of pharmacological treatments, thereby informing response monitoring and risk mitigation strategies. In oncology, emerging opportunities exist for development of the next generation of disease models via ML-assisted joint longitudinal modeling of high-dimensional biomarker data such as circulating tumor DNA and radiomics profiles as predictors of survival outcomes. Finally, mining real-world data leveraging ML algorithms enables understanding of the impact of exclusion criteria on clinical outcomes, thereby informing rational design of appropriately inclusive clinical trials through data-driven broadening of eligibility criteria. Herein, we provide an overview of the aforementioned contexts of use of ML in drug-disease modeling based on examples across multiple therapeutic areas including neurology, rare diseases, autoimmune diseases, oncology and immuno-oncology.
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Affiliation(s)
- Nadia Terranova
- Quantitative Pharmacology, Ares Trading S.A. (an affiliate of Merck KGaA, Darmstadt, Germany), Lausanne, Switzerland
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Shemesh CS, Chan P, Marchand M, Gonçalves A, Vadhavkar S, Wu B, Li C, Jin JY, Hack SP, Bruno R. Early Decision Making in a Randomized Phase II Trial of Atezolizumab in Biliary Tract Cancer Using a Tumor Growth Inhibition-Survival Modeling Framework. Clin Pharmacol Ther 2023; 114:644-651. [PMID: 37212707 DOI: 10.1002/cpt.2953] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/22/2023] [Accepted: 05/09/2023] [Indexed: 05/23/2023]
Abstract
We assess the longitudinal tumor growth inhibition (TGI) metrics and overall survival (OS) predictions applied to patients with advanced biliary tract cancer (BTC) enrolled in IMbrave151 a multicenter randomized phase II, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial evaluating the efficacy and safety of atezolizumab with or without bevacizumab in combination with cisplatin plus gemcitabine. Tumor growth rate (KG) was estimated for patients in IMbrave151. A pre-existing TGI-OS model for patients with hepatocellular carcinoma in IMbrave150 was modified to include available IMbrave151 study covariates and KG estimates and used to simulate IMbrave151 study outcomes. At the interim progression-free survival (PFS) analysis (98 patients, 27 weeks follow-up), clear separation in tumor dynamic profiles with a faster shrinkage rate and slower KG (0.0103 vs. 0.0117 week-1 ; tumor doubling time 67 vs. 59 weeks; KG geometric mean ratio of 0.84) favoring the bevacizumab containing arm was observed. At the first interim analysis for PFS, the simulated OS hazard ratio (HR) 95% prediction interval (PI) of 0.74 (95% PI: 0.58-0.94) offered an early prediction of treatment benefit later confirmed at the final analysis, observed HR of 0.76 based on 159 treated patients and 34 weeks of follow-up. This is the first prospective application of a TGI-OS modeling framework supporting gating of a phase III trial. The findings demonstrate the utility for longitudinal TGI and KG geometric mean ratio as relevant end points in oncology studies to support go/no-go decision making and facilitate interpretation of the IMbrave151 results to support future development efforts for novel therapeutics for patients with advanced BTC.
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Affiliation(s)
- Colby S Shemesh
- Clinical Pharmacology, Genentech Inc., South San Francisco, California, USA
| | - Phyllis Chan
- Clinical Pharmacology, Genentech Inc., South San Francisco, California, USA
| | | | | | - Shweta Vadhavkar
- Clinical Pharmacology, Genentech Inc., South San Francisco, California, USA
| | - Benjamin Wu
- Clinical Pharmacology, Genentech Inc., South San Francisco, California, USA
| | - Chunze Li
- Clinical Pharmacology, Genentech Inc., South San Francisco, California, USA
| | - Jin Y Jin
- Clinical Pharmacology, Genentech Inc., South San Francisco, California, USA
| | - Stephen P Hack
- Product Development Oncology, Genentech Inc., South San Francisco, California, USA
| | - Rene Bruno
- Clinical Pharmacology, Genentech-Roche, Marseille, France
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Baaz M, Cardilin T, Jirstrand M. Model-based prediction of progression-free survival for combination therapies in oncology. CPT Pharmacometrics Syst Pharmacol 2023; 12:1227-1237. [PMID: 37300376 PMCID: PMC10508530 DOI: 10.1002/psp4.13003] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/10/2023] [Revised: 05/12/2023] [Accepted: 05/22/2023] [Indexed: 06/12/2023] Open
Abstract
Progression-free survival (PFS) is an important clinical metric for comparing and evaluating similar treatments for the same disease within oncology. After the completion of a clinical trial, a descriptive analysis of the patients' PFS is often performed post hoc using the Kaplan-Meier estimator. However, to perform predictions, more sophisticated quantitative methods are needed. Tumor growth inhibition models are commonly used to describe and predict the dynamics of preclinical and clinical tumor size data. Moreover, frameworks also exist for describing the probability of different types of events, such as tumor metastasis or patient dropout. Combining these two types of models into a so-called joint model enables model-based prediction of PFS. In this paper, we have constructed a joint model from clinical data comparing the efficacy of FOLFOX against FOLFOX + panitumumab in patients with metastatic colorectal cancer. The nonlinear mixed effects framework was used to quantify interindividual variability (IIV). The model describes tumor size and PFS data well, and showed good predictive capabilities using truncated as well as external data. A machine-learning guided analysis was performed to reduce unexplained IIV by incorporating patient covariates. The model-based approach illustrated in this paper could be useful to help design clinical trials or to determine new promising drug candidates for combination therapy trials.
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Affiliation(s)
- Marcus Baaz
- Fraunhofer‐Chalmers Research Centre for Industrial MathematicsGothenburgSweden
- Department of Mathematical SciencesChalmers University of Technology and University of GothenburgGothenburgSweden
| | - Tim Cardilin
- Fraunhofer‐Chalmers Research Centre for Industrial MathematicsGothenburgSweden
| | - Mats Jirstrand
- Fraunhofer‐Chalmers Research Centre for Industrial MathematicsGothenburgSweden
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Courlet P, Abler D, Guidi M, Girard P, Amato F, Vietti Violi N, Dietz M, Guignard N, Wicky A, Latifyan S, De Micheli R, Jreige M, Dromain C, Csajka C, Prior JO, Venkatakrishnan K, Michielin O, Cuendet MA, Terranova N. Modeling tumor size dynamics based on real-world electronic health records and image data in advanced melanoma patients receiving immunotherapy. CPT Pharmacometrics Syst Pharmacol 2023; 12:1170-1181. [PMID: 37328961 PMCID: PMC10431051 DOI: 10.1002/psp4.12983] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/25/2022] [Revised: 04/28/2023] [Accepted: 05/04/2023] [Indexed: 06/18/2023] Open
Abstract
The development of immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs) has revolutionized cancer therapy but only a fraction of patients benefits from this therapy. Model-informed drug development can be used to assess prognostic and predictive clinical factors or biomarkers associated with treatment response. Most pharmacometric models have thus far been developed using data from randomized clinical trials, and further studies are needed to translate their findings into the real-world setting. We developed a tumor growth inhibition model based on real-world clinical and imaging data in a population of 91 advanced melanoma patients receiving ICIs (i.e., ipilimumab, nivolumab, and pembrolizumab). Drug effect was modeled as an ON/OFF treatment effect, with a tumor killing rate constant identical for the three drugs. Significant and clinically relevant covariate effects of albumin, neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio, and Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group (ECOG) performance status were identified on the baseline tumor volume parameter, as well as NRAS mutation on tumor growth rate constant using standard pharmacometric approaches. In a population subgroup (n = 38), we had the opportunity to conduct an exploratory analysis of image-based covariates (i.e., radiomics features), by combining machine learning and conventional pharmacometric covariate selection approaches. Overall, we demonstrated an innovative pipeline for longitudinal analyses of clinical and imaging RWD with a high-dimensional covariate selection method that enabled the identification of factors associated with tumor dynamics. This study also provides a proof of concept for using radiomics features as model covariates.
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Affiliation(s)
- Perrine Courlet
- Precision Oncology Center, Department of OncologyLausanne University Hospital and University of LausanneLausanneSwitzerland
- Centre for Research and Innovation in Clinical Pharmaceutical SciencesLausanne University Hospital and University of LausanneLausanneSwitzerland
| | - Daniel Abler
- Precision Oncology Center, Department of OncologyLausanne University Hospital and University of LausanneLausanneSwitzerland
- Institute of Informatics, School of Management, University of Applied Sciences Western Switzerland (HES‐SO)SierreSwitzerland
| | - Monia Guidi
- Centre for Research and Innovation in Clinical Pharmaceutical SciencesLausanne University Hospital and University of LausanneLausanneSwitzerland
- Service of Clinical PharmacologyLausanne University Hospital and University of LausanneLausanneSwitzerland
| | - Pascal Girard
- Merck Institute of Pharmacometrics, Ares Trading S.A. (an affiliate of Merck KGaA, Darmstadt, Germany)LausanneSwitzerland
| | - Federico Amato
- Swiss Data Science Centre, École Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne (EPFL) and Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule Zurich (ETH)ZurichSwitzerland
| | - Naik Vietti Violi
- Department of Radiology and Interventional RadiologyLausanne University Hospital and University of LausanneLausanneSwitzerland
| | - Matthieu Dietz
- Nuclear Medicine and Molecular Imaging DepartmentLausanne University Hospital and University of LausanneLausanneSwitzerland
| | - Nicolas Guignard
- Department of Radiology and Interventional RadiologyLausanne University Hospital and University of LausanneLausanneSwitzerland
| | - Alexandre Wicky
- Precision Oncology Center, Department of OncologyLausanne University Hospital and University of LausanneLausanneSwitzerland
| | - Sofiya Latifyan
- Department of OncologyLausanne University Hospital and University of LausanneLausanneSwitzerland
| | - Rita De Micheli
- Department of OncologyLausanne University Hospital and University of LausanneLausanneSwitzerland
| | - Mario Jreige
- Nuclear Medicine and Molecular Imaging DepartmentLausanne University Hospital and University of LausanneLausanneSwitzerland
| | - Clarisse Dromain
- Department of Radiology and Interventional RadiologyLausanne University Hospital and University of LausanneLausanneSwitzerland
| | - Chantal Csajka
- Centre for Research and Innovation in Clinical Pharmaceutical SciencesLausanne University Hospital and University of LausanneLausanneSwitzerland
- Institute of Pharmaceutical Sciences of Western Switzerland, University of GenevaUniversity of LausanneGenevaSwitzerland
- School of Pharmaceutical SciencesUniversity of GenevaGenevaSwitzerland
| | - John O. Prior
- Nuclear Medicine and Molecular Imaging DepartmentLausanne University Hospital and University of LausanneLausanneSwitzerland
| | | | - Olivier Michielin
- Precision Oncology Center, Department of OncologyLausanne University Hospital and University of LausanneLausanneSwitzerland
| | - Michel A. Cuendet
- Precision Oncology Center, Department of OncologyLausanne University Hospital and University of LausanneLausanneSwitzerland
- Swiss Institute of Bioinformatics, University of LausanneLausanneSwitzerland
- Department of Physiology and Biophysics, Weill Cornell MedicineNew YorkNew YorkUSA
| | - Nadia Terranova
- Merck Institute of Pharmacometrics, Ares Trading S.A. (an affiliate of Merck KGaA, Darmstadt, Germany)LausanneSwitzerland
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Petinrin OO, Saeed F, Toseef M, Liu Z, Basurra S, Muyide IO, Li X, Lin Q, Wong KC. Machine Learning in Metastatic Cancer Research: Potentials, Possibilities, and Prospects. Comput Struct Biotechnol J 2023; 21:2454-2470. [PMID: 37077177 PMCID: PMC10106342 DOI: 10.1016/j.csbj.2023.03.046] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/17/2023] [Revised: 03/26/2023] [Accepted: 03/27/2023] [Indexed: 03/31/2023] Open
Abstract
Cancer has received extensive recognition for its high mortality rate, with metastatic cancer being the top cause of cancer-related deaths. Metastatic cancer involves the spread of the primary tumor to other body organs. As much as the early detection of cancer is essential, the timely detection of metastasis, the identification of biomarkers, and treatment choice are valuable for improving the quality of life for metastatic cancer patients. This study reviews the existing studies on classical machine learning (ML) and deep learning (DL) in metastatic cancer research. Since the majority of metastatic cancer research data are collected in the formats of PET/CT and MRI image data, deep learning techniques are heavily involved. However, its black-box nature and expensive computational cost are notable concerns. Furthermore, existing models could be overestimated for their generality due to the non-diverse population in clinical trial datasets. Therefore, research gaps are itemized; follow-up studies should be carried out on metastatic cancer using machine learning and deep learning tools with data in a symmetric manner.
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Goteti K, Hanan N, Magee M, Wojciechowski J, Mensing S, Lalovic B, Hang Y, Solms A, Singh I, Singh R, Rieger TR, Jin JY. Opportunities and Challenges of Disease Progression Modeling in Drug Development - An IQ Perspective. Clin Pharmacol Ther 2023. [PMID: 36802040 DOI: 10.1002/cpt.2873] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/22/2022] [Accepted: 02/06/2023] [Indexed: 02/20/2023]
Abstract
Disease progression modeling (DPM) represents an important model-informed drug development framework. The scientific communities support the use of DPM to accelerate and increase efficiency in drug development. This article summarizes International Consortium for Innovation & Quality (IQ) in Pharmaceutical Development mediated survey conducted across multiple biopharmaceutical companies on challenges and opportunities for DPM. Additionally, this summary highlights the viewpoints of IQ from the 2021 workshop hosted by the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA). Sixteen pharmaceutical companies participated in the IQ survey with 36 main questions. The types of questions included single/multiple choice, dichotomous, rank questions, and open-ended or free text. The key results show that DPM has different representation, it encompasses natural disease history, placebo response, standard of care as background therapy, and can even be interpreted as pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic modeling. The most common reasons for not implementing DPM as frequently seem to be difficulties in internal cross-functional alignment, lack of knowledge of disease/data, and time constraints. If successfully implemented, DPM can have an impact on dose selection, reduction of sample size, trial read-out support, patient selection/stratification, and supportive evidence for regulatory interactions. The key success factors and key challenges of disease progression models were highlighted in the survey and about 24 case studies across different therapeutic areas were submitted from various survey sponsors. Although DPM is still evolving, its current impact is limited but promising. The success of such models in the future will depend on collaboration, advanced analytics, availability of and access to relevant and adequate-quality data, collaborative regulatory guidance, and published examples of impact.
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Affiliation(s)
- Kosalaram Goteti
- Quantitative Pharmacology, EMD Serono Research and Development Institute, Inc., Billerica, Massachusetts, USA
| | - Nathan Hanan
- Clinical Pharmacology Modeling and Simulation, GlaxoSmithKline, Collegeville, Pennsylvania, USA
| | - Mindy Magee
- Clinical Pharmacology Modeling and Simulation, GlaxoSmithKline, Collegeville, Pennsylvania, USA
| | | | - Sven Mensing
- Clinical Pharmacology, AbbVie Deutschland GmbH & Co. KG, Ludwigshafen, Germany
| | - Bojan Lalovic
- Clinical Pharmacology Modeling and Simulation, Eisai Inc, Nutley, New Jersey, USA
| | - Yaming Hang
- Quantitative Clinical Pharmacology, Takeda, Cambridge, Massachusetts, USA
| | - Alexander Solms
- Clinical Pharmacometrics/Modeling & Simulation, Bayer AG, Berlin, Germany
| | - Indrajeet Singh
- Clinical Pharmacology, Gilead Sciences, Foster City, California, USA
| | | | | | - Jin Y Jin
- Clinical Pharmacology, Genentech, Inc., South San Francisco, California, USA
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Van Wijk RC, Simonsson USH. Finding the right hazard function for time‐to‐event modeling: A tutorial and Shiny application. CPT Pharmacometrics Syst Pharmacol 2022; 11:991-1001. [PMID: 35467083 PMCID: PMC9381898 DOI: 10.1002/psp4.12797] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/24/2022] [Revised: 03/15/2022] [Accepted: 03/21/2022] [Indexed: 11/28/2022] Open
Abstract
Parametric time‐to‐event analysis is an important pharmacometric method to predict the probability of an event up until a certain time as a function of covariates and/or drug exposure. Modeling is performed at the level of the hazard function describing the instantaneous rate of an event occurring at that timepoint. We give an overview of the parametric time‐to‐event analysis starting with graphical exploration by Kaplan–Meier plotting for the event data including censoring and nonparametric hazard estimators such as the kernel‐based visual hazard comparison for the underlying hazard. The most common hazard functions including the exponential, Gompertz, Weibull, log‐normal, log‐logistic, and circadian functions are described in detail. A Shiny application was developed to graphically guide the modeler which of the most common hazard functions presents a similar shape compared to the data in order to guide which hazard functions to test in the parametric time‐to‐event analysis. For the chosen hazard function(s), the Shiny application can additionally be used to explore corresponding parameter values to inform on suitable initial estimates for parametric modeling as well as on possible covariate or treatment relationships to certain parameters. Moreover, it can be used for the dissemination of results as well as communication, training, and workshops on time‐to‐event analysis. By guiding the modeler on which functions and what parameter values to test and compare as well as to assist in dissemination, the Shiny application developed here greatly supports the modeler in complicated parametric time‐to‐event modeling.
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Affiliation(s)
- Rob C. Van Wijk
- Department of Pharmaceutical Biosciences Uppsala University Uppsala Sweden
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