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Cao K, Yang K, Wang C, Guo J, Tao L, Liu Q, Gehendra M, Zhang Y, Guo X. Spatial-Temporal Epidemiology of Tuberculosis in Mainland China: An Analysis Based on Bayesian Theory. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH 2016; 13:E469. [PMID: 27164117 PMCID: PMC4881094 DOI: 10.3390/ijerph13050469] [Citation(s) in RCA: 34] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/27/2016] [Revised: 04/06/2016] [Accepted: 04/27/2016] [Indexed: 01/12/2023]
Abstract
OBJECTIVE To explore the spatial-temporal interaction effect within a Bayesian framework and to probe the ecological influential factors for tuberculosis. METHODS Six different statistical models containing parameters of time, space, spatial-temporal interaction and their combination were constructed based on a Bayesian framework. The optimum model was selected according to the deviance information criterion (DIC) value. Coefficients of climate variables were then estimated using the best fitting model. RESULTS The model containing spatial-temporal interaction parameter was the best fitting one, with the smallest DIC value (-4,508,660). Ecological analysis results showed the relative risks (RRs) of average temperature, rainfall, wind speed, humidity, and air pressure were 1.00324 (95% CI, 1.00150-1.00550), 1.01010 (95% CI, 1.01007-1.01013), 0.83518 (95% CI, 0.93732-0.96138), 0.97496 (95% CI, 0.97181-1.01386), and 1.01007 (95% CI, 1.01003-1.01011), respectively. CONCLUSIONS The spatial-temporal interaction was statistically meaningful and the prevalence of tuberculosis was influenced by the time and space interaction effect. Average temperature, rainfall, wind speed, and air pressure influenced tuberculosis. Average humidity had no influence on tuberculosis.
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Affiliation(s)
- Kai Cao
- School of Public Health, Capital Medical University, No. 10 Xitoutiao, You'anmen Wai, Fengtai District, Beijing 100069, China.
- Beijing Municipal Key Laboratory of Clinical Epidemiology, Beijing 100069, China.
- Beijing Ophthalmology & Visual Science Key Lab., Beijing Institute of Ophthalmology, Beijing Tongren Eye Center, Beijing Tongren Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing 100730, China.
| | - Kun Yang
- School of Public Health, Capital Medical University, No. 10 Xitoutiao, You'anmen Wai, Fengtai District, Beijing 100069, China.
- Beijing Municipal Key Laboratory of Clinical Epidemiology, Beijing 100069, China.
| | - Chao Wang
- School of Public Health, Capital Medical University, No. 10 Xitoutiao, You'anmen Wai, Fengtai District, Beijing 100069, China.
- Beijing Municipal Key Laboratory of Clinical Epidemiology, Beijing 100069, China.
- Department of Statistics and Information, Beijing Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, No 16, Hepingli Middle Street, Dongcheng District, Beijing 100013, China.
| | - Jin Guo
- School of Public Health, Capital Medical University, No. 10 Xitoutiao, You'anmen Wai, Fengtai District, Beijing 100069, China.
- Beijing Municipal Key Laboratory of Clinical Epidemiology, Beijing 100069, China.
| | - Lixin Tao
- School of Public Health, Capital Medical University, No. 10 Xitoutiao, You'anmen Wai, Fengtai District, Beijing 100069, China.
- Beijing Municipal Key Laboratory of Clinical Epidemiology, Beijing 100069, China.
| | - Qingrong Liu
- School of Public Health, Capital Medical University, No. 10 Xitoutiao, You'anmen Wai, Fengtai District, Beijing 100069, China.
- Beijing Municipal Key Laboratory of Clinical Epidemiology, Beijing 100069, China.
| | - Mahara Gehendra
- School of Public Health, Capital Medical University, No. 10 Xitoutiao, You'anmen Wai, Fengtai District, Beijing 100069, China.
- Beijing Municipal Key Laboratory of Clinical Epidemiology, Beijing 100069, China.
| | - Yingjie Zhang
- Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 102206, China.
| | - Xiuhua Guo
- School of Public Health, Capital Medical University, No. 10 Xitoutiao, You'anmen Wai, Fengtai District, Beijing 100069, China.
- Beijing Municipal Key Laboratory of Clinical Epidemiology, Beijing 100069, China.
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