Development of a nomogram for predicting clinical outcome in patients with angiogram-negative subarachnoid hemorrhage

Clinical Outcomes of Diffuse Angiogram-Negative Subarachnoid Hemorrhage Versus Aneurysmal Subarachnoid Hemorrhage: A Propensity Score-Matched Analysis

BACKGROUND

The outcome of diffuse angiogram-negative subarachnoid hemorrhage (dan-SAH) compared with aneurysmal SAH (aSAH) remains unclear. This study aimed to compare outcomes using propensity score matching.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Sixty-five patients with dan-SAH and 857 patients with aSAH admitted between January 2018 and December 2022 were retrospectively reviewed. Propensity score matching resulted in matching 65 patients with dan-SAH to 260 patients with aSAH, and clinical outcomes were compared between the groups. Compared with patients with dan-SAH, patients with aSAH were more likely to experience rehemorrhage (8.8% versus 0%, P=0.027), death (11.2% versus 1.5%; odds ratios [OR] 8.04 [95% CI, 1.07-60.12]; P=0.042), or delayed cerebral ischemia (12.3% versus 3.1%; OR, 4.42 [95% CI, 1.03-18.95]; P=0.045). Multivariate analysis revealed that Hunt-Hess grade 4 to 5 (OR, 3.13 [95% CI, 2.11-4.64]; P<0.001), presence of intraventricular hemorrhage (OR, 3.58 [95% CI, 1.72-7.46]; P=0.001), and smoking (OR, 2.44 [95% CI, 1.12-5.28]; P=0.024) were independently associated with the incidence of unfavorable outcomes (modified Rankin scale score >2 at 3 months), whereas dan-SAH was not (OR, 0.66 [95% CI, 0.25-1.73]; P=0.40).

CONCLUSIONS

Compared with patients with dan-SAH, patients with aSAH had higher rehemorrhage rates and in-hospital mortality, as well as a higher incidence of delayed cerebral ischemia. Unfavorable outcomes were associated with admission Hunt-Hess grade, the presence of intravenetricular hemorrhage, and smoking history, but there was no relation with the  pathogenesis of the hemorrhage (dan-SAH versus aSAH).

Frequency and Characteristics of Spinal Bleeding Sources in Nontraumatic Angiogram-Negative Subarachnoid Hemorrhage

INTRODUCTION

Angiogram-negative subarachnoid hemorrhage (AN-SAH) accounts for 5-15% of spontaneous SAH. This study aims to analyze the frequency and characteristics of spinal bleeding sources in patients with AN-SAH.

METHODS

140 patients suffering from AN-SAH treated at our institution from 2012 to 2022 were included in this retrospective cohort study.

RESULTS

52.1% were diagnosed with perimesencephalic SAH, 35.0% with non-perimesencephalic, SAH and 12.9% with CT-negative SAH (diagnosed by lumbar puncture). Additional magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) identified a spinal bleeding source in 4 patients (2.86%). These patients presented with local spine pain or neurological deficits (relative risk: 3.9706 [95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.7272-21.6792]; p < 0.001) and were younger (mean difference 14.85 years [95% CI: 0.85-28.85; p = 0.038]) compared to patients without a spinal bleeding source.

CONCLUSIONS

AN-SAH caused by spinal pathology is rare. This study indicates that craniocervical and holospinal MRI should be considered in AN-SAH, especially for young patients with AN-SAH who present with back pain or neurological deficits.

Non-Aneurysmal Perimesencephalic Subarachnoid Hemorrhage: A Literature Review

Spontaneous non-aneurysmal subarachnoid haemorrhage (NAPMSAH) (addressing point 1) is a relatively rare occurrence in clinical settings as it is rarely misdiagnosed and usually involves a significantly better prognosis than the classical aneurysmal pattern. We hereby focused on a comprehensive analysis of this distinct pathological entity with the purpose of analysing possible pathophysiological entities, outcomes and treatment options involving this diagnosis with a focus on demographical, epidemiological and clinical data. The clinical setting includes focal neurological signs related to the anatomical structures, while computer tomography followed by tomographic angiography are the most common diagnosis tools, with a typical hyperdense lesion involving the midbrain, fourth ventricle and subthalamic areas without an angiographic correspondent, such as an aneurysmal pathology. Further investigations can also be used to highlight this diagnosis, such as interventional angiography or magnetic resonance imaging. Given the rarity of this condition and its relatively better prognosis, treatment options usually remain conservative. In the present review, the main characteristics of NAPMSAH are discussed.

A nomogram for predicting the risk of poor prognosis in patients with poor-grade aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage following microsurgical clipping

Objective

Aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage (aSAH) is a common and potentially fatal cerebrovascular disease. Poor-grade aSAH (Hunt-Hess grades IV and V) accounts for 20-30% of patients with aSAH, with most patients having a poor prognosis. This study aimed to develop a stable nomogram model for predicting adverse outcomes at 6 months in patients with aSAH, and thus, aid in improving the prognosis.

Method

The clinical data and imaging findings of 150 patients with poor-grade aSAH treated with microsurgical clipping of intracranial aneurysms on admission from December 2015 to October 2021 were retrospectively analyzed. Least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO), logistic regression analyses, and a nomogram were used to develop the prognostic models. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and Hosmer-Lemeshow tests were used to assess discrimination and calibration. The bootstrap method (1,000 repetitions) was used for internal validation. Decision curve analysis (DCA) was performed to evaluate the clinical validity of the nomogram model.

Result

LASSO regression analysis showed that age, Hunt-Hess grade, Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS), aneurysm size, and refractory hyperpyrexia were potential predictors for poor-grade aSAH. Logistic regression analyses revealed that age (OR: 1.107, 95% CI: 1.056-1.116, P < 0.001), Hunt-Hess grade (OR: 8.832, 95% CI: 2.312-33.736, P = 0.001), aneurysm size (OR: 6.871, 95% CI: 1.907-24.754, P = 0.003) and refractory fever (OR: 3.610, 95% CI: 1.301-10.018, P < 0.001) were independent predictors of poor outcome. The area under the ROC curve (AUC) was 0.909. The calibration curve and Hosmer-Lemeshow tests showed that the nomogram had good calibration ability. Furthermore, the DCA curve showed better clinical utilization of the nomogram.

Conclusion

This study provides a reliable and valuable nomogram that can accurately predict the risk of poor prognosis in patients with poor-grade aSAH after microsurgical clipping. This tool is easy to use and can help physicians make appropriate clinical decisions to significantly improve patient prognosis.

Predictive models for overall survival in breast cancer patients with a second primary malignancy: a real-world study in Shanghai, China

BACKGROUND

The incidents of second primary malignancy (SPM) is increasing among breast cancer (BC) patients with long-term progression, adversely affecting survival. The purpose of this study was to screen independent overall survival (OS) risk factors and establish nomograms to predict the survival probabilities of BC patients with SPM.

METHOD

A total of 163 BC patients with SPM were recruited during 2002-2015 from a total of 50 hospitals in Shanghai, China. Two nomograms to predict survival from primary BC and SPM diagnosis were constructed based on independent factors screened from multivariable analysis. The calibration and discrimination of nomograms were calculated in the training and validation cohorts.

RESULTS

The overall survival rates of BC patients with SPM were 88.34%, 64.42% and 54.66% at 5, 10 and 15 years, respectively. Factors of late TNM stage of SPM (HR = 4.68, 95% CI 2.14-10.25), surgery for SPM (HR = 0.60, 95% CI 0.36-1.00), SPM in the colon and rectum (HR = 0.49, 95% CI 0.25-0.98) and thyroid (HR = 0.08, 95% CI 0.01-0.61) independently affected the OS of BC patients with SPM (p < 0.05). In addition, a longer latency (≥ 5 years) was associated with better OS from BC diagnosis (p < 0.001). Older age (≥ 56) was associated with poor OS from SPM diagnosis (p = 0.019). Two nomograms established based on the above factors had better calibration and discrimination.

CONCLUSION

The TNM stage of SPM, surgery for SPM, SPM sites, latency and age at BC diagnosis are independent factors for survival and the two nomograms may provide more personalized management for BC patients with SPM.

CCL17 exerts neuroprotection through activation of CCR4/mTORC2 axis in microglia after subarachnoid haemorrhage in rats

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

C-C motif chemokine ligand 17 (CCL17) presents an important role in immune regulation, which is critical in the pathophysiology of brain injury after subarachnoid haemorrhage (SAH). There is rare evidence to illustrate the function of CCL17 towards SAH. In this study, we try to reveal the therapeutic effects of CCL17 and its underlying mechanism in rat SAH model.

METHODS

SAH rat models were assigned to receive recombinant CCL17 (rCCL17) or phosphate buffer saline (PBS). AZD2098 and JR-AB2-011 were applied to investigate the C-C motif chemokine receptor 4 (CCR4)/mammalian target of rapamycin complex 2 (mTORC2) axis in CCL17-mediated neuroprotection. To elucidate the underlying mechanism, the in vitro kinase assay was performed in primary microglia. Microglial-specific Rictor knockdown was administered via intracerebroventricular injection of adenovirus-associated virus. Brain water content, short-term neurobehavioural evaluation, western blot analysis, quantitative RT-PCR and histological staining were performed.

RESULTS

The expression of CCL17 was increased and secreted from neurons after oxyhaemoglobin stimulation. Exogenous rCCL17 significantly alleviated neuronal apoptosis, and alleviated short-term neurofunction after SAH in rats. In addition, rCCL17 increased M2-like polarisation of microglia in rats post-SAH and in primary microglia culture. The neuroprotection of rCCL17 was abolished via inhibition of either CCR4 or mTORC2.

CONCLUSION

CCL17 activated the CCR4/mTORC2 axis in microglia, which can alleviate SAH-induced neurological deficits by promoting M2-like polarisation of microglia.

Exploration of Risk Factors for Poor Prognosis of Non-Traumatic Non-Aneurysmal Subarachnoid Hemorrhage

Background: Subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH) is a devastating neurological disease associated with high rates of mortality and disability. Aneurysms are the main cause of non-traumatic subarachnoid hemorrhages. However, non-traumatic non-aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage (naSAH), another clinical type of SAH, has been poorly studied for its prognosis and risk factors. Method and result: We collected demographic and clinical variables for 126 naSAH and 89 aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage (aSAH) patients, including age and gender; hospitalization days; hematological indicators; clinical score scales; past medical history; and personal history. We found that the monocytes in naSAH (0.50 ± 0.26) patients were lower than in aSAH patients (0.60 ± 0.27). The prevalence of diabetes in naSAH (30.2%) patients was higher than in aSAH (14.5%) patients. The naSAH patients were divided into good and poor outcome groups based on the modified Rankin Scale at the 90th day (90-day mRS) after discharge. A univariate analysis showed that there were significant differences in age, white blood cell count (WBC), monocyte count, D-dipolymer, neuron-specific enolase (NSE), random blood glucose (RBG), aspartate transaminase (AST), urea and free triiodothyronine (FT3) between the two groups. A logistic regression showed that aging and high level NSE were independent risk factors for a poor outcome. The predictive ability of age (area under curve (AUC) = 0.71) and NSE (AUC = 0.68) were analyzed by a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. The results of the logistic regression suggested that age, D-dipolymer, NSE, RBG, urea and FT3 distinguished and predicted the prognosis of naSAH. The discriminant analysis of the above variables revealed that the discriminant accuracy was 80.20%. Conclusions: Compared with aSAHs, naSAHs are more likely to occur in patients with diabetes, and the level of monocytes is lower. Moreover, the prognosis of elderly patients with an naSAH is relatively poor, and the level of NSE in the course of the disease also reflects the prognosis. Multivariate comprehensive analysis is helpful to judge the prognosis of patients at a small cost.

Effect of stress-induced hyperglycemia after non-traumatic non-aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage on clinical complications and functional outcomes

Background

Despite having an overall benign course, non‐traumatic non‐aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage (naSAH) is still accompanied by a risk of clinical complications and poor outcomes. Risk factors and mechanisms of complications and poor outcomes after naSAH remain unknown. Our aim was to explore the effect of stress‐induced hyperglycemia (SIH) on complication rates and functional outcomes in naSAH patients.

Methods

We retrospectively reviewed patients with naSAH admitted to our institution between 2013 and 2018. SIH was identified according to previous criterion. Symptomatic vasospasm, delayed cerebral infarction, and hydrocephalus were identified as main complications. Outcomes were reviewed using a modified Rankin Scale (mRS) at discharge, 3 months, and 12 months. A statistical analysis was conducted to reveal the associations of SIH with complications and outcomes.

Results

A total of 244 naSAH patients were included in the cohort with 74 (30.3%) SIH. After adjusting for age, gender, hypertension, Hunt and Hess (HH) grade, modified Fisher Scale (mFS), intraventricular hemorrhage (IVH), and subarachnoid blood distribution, SIH was significantly associated with symptomatic vasospasm (p < 0.001, 12.176 [4.904–30.231]), delayed cerebral infarction (p < 0.001, 12.434 [3.850–40.161]), hydrocephalus (p = 0.008, 5.771 [1.570–21.222]), and poor outcome at 12 months (p = 0.006, 5.506 [1.632–18.581]), whereas the correlation between SIH and poor outcome at discharge (p = 0.064, 2.409 [0.951–6.100]) or 3 months (p = 0.110, 2.029 [0.852–4.833]) was not significant. Incorporation of SIH increased the area under curve (AUC) of ROC in the combined model for predicting symptomatic vasospasm (p = 0.002), delayed cerebral infarction (p = 0.024), hydrocephalus (p = 0.037), and 12‐month poor outcome (p = 0.087).

Conclusions

SIH is a significant and independent risk factor for symptomatic vasospasm, delayed cerebral infarction, hydrocephalus, and long‐term poor outcome in naSAH patients. Identifying SIH early after naSAH is important for decision‐making and treatment planning.

Development and validation of prediction models for neurocognitive disorders in adult patients admitted to the ICU with sleep disturbance

BACKGROUND

Neurocognitive disorders (NCDs) and sleep disturbance are highly prevalent in the perioperative period and intensive care unit (ICU). There has been a lack of individualized evaluation tools designed for the high-risk NCDs in critically ill patients with sleep disturbance.

OBJECTIVES

The aim of this study was to develop and validate prediction models for NCDs among adult patients with sleep disturbance.

METHODS

The R software was used to analyze the dataset of adult patients admitted to the ICU with sleep disturbance, who were diagnosed following the codes of the International Classification of Diseases, 9th Revision (ICD-9) and 10th Revision (ICD-10) using the MIMIC-IV database. We used logistic regression and LASSO analyses to identify important risk factors associated with NCDs and develop nomograms for NCDs predictions. We measured the performances of the nomograms using the bootstrap resampling procedure, sensitivity, specificity of the receiver operating characteristic (ROC), area under the ROC curves (AUC), and decision curve analysis (DCA).

RESULTS

The prediction models shared the 10 risk factors (age, gender, midazolam, morphine, glucose, diabetes diseases, potassium, international normalized ratio, partial thromboplastin time, and respiratory rate). Cardiovascular diseases were included in the logistic regression, the sensitivity was 74.1%, and specificity was 64.6%. When platelet and Glasgow Coma Score (GCS) were included and cardiovascular diseases were removed in the LASSO prediction model, the sensitivity was 86.1% and specificity was 82.8%. Discriminative abilities of the logistic prediction and LASSO prediction models for NCDs in the validation set were evaluated as the AUC scores, which were 0.730 (95% CI 0.716-0.743) and 0.920 (95% CI 0.912-0.927). Net benefits of the prediction models were observed at threshold probabilities of 0.567 and 0.914.

CONCLUSIONS

The LASSO prediction model showed better performance than the logistic prediction model and should be preferred for nomogram-assisted decisions on clinical risk management of NCDs among adult patients with sleep disturbance in the ICU.