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Verniest F, Galewski T, Boutron O, Dami L, Defos du Rau P, Guelmami A, Julliard R, Popoff N, Suet M, Willm L, Abdou W, Azafzaf H, Bendjedda N, Bino T, Borg JJ, Božič L, Dakki M, Hamoumi RE, Encarnação V, Erciyas-Yavuz K, Etayeb K, Georgiev V, Hamada A, Hatzofe O, Ieronymidou C, Langendoen T, Mikuska T, Molina B, Moniz F, Moussy C, Ouassou A, Petkov N, Portolou D, Qaneer T, Sayoud S, Šćiban M, Topić G, Uzunova D, Vine G, Vizi A, Xeka E, Zenatello M, Gaget E, Viol IL. Exposure of wetlands important for nonbreeding waterbirds to sea-level rise in the Mediterranean. CONSERVATION BIOLOGY : THE JOURNAL OF THE SOCIETY FOR CONSERVATION BIOLOGY 2024:e14288. [PMID: 38757477 DOI: 10.1111/cobi.14288] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/16/2023] [Revised: 02/27/2024] [Accepted: 02/28/2024] [Indexed: 05/18/2024]
Abstract
Sea-level rise (SLR) is expected to cause major changes to coastal wetlands, which are among the world's most vulnerable ecosystems and are critical for nonbreeding waterbirds. Because strategies for adaptation to SLR, such as nature-based solutions and designation of protected areas, can locally reduce the negative effects of coastal flooding under SLR on coastal wetlands, it is crucial to prioritize adaptation efforts, especially for wetlands of international importance for biodiversity. We assessed the exposure of coastal wetlands important for nonbreeding waterbirds to projected SLR along the Mediterranean coasts of 8 countries by modeling future coastal flooding under 7 scenarios of SLR by 2100 (from 44- to 161-cm rise) with a static inundation approach. Exposure to coastal flooding under future SLR was assessed for 938 Mediterranean coastal sites (≤30 km from the coastline) where 145 species of nonbreeding birds were monitored as part of the International Waterbird Census and for which the monitoring area was delineated by a polygon (64.3% of the coastal sites monitored in the Mediterranean region). Thirty-four percent of sites were threatened by future SLR, even under the most optimistic scenarios. Protected study sites and study sites of international importance for waterbirds were, respectively, 1.5 and 2 times more exposed to SLR than the other sites under the most optimistic scenario. Accordingly, we advocate for the development of a prioritization scheme to be applied to these wetlands for the implementation of strategies for adaptation to SLR to anticipate the effects of coastal flooding. Our study provides major guidance for conservation planning under global change in several countries of the Mediterranean region.
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Affiliation(s)
- Fabien Verniest
- Tour du Valat, Institut de recherche pour la conservation des zones humides méditerranéennes, Arles, France
- Centre d'Ecologie et des Sciences de la Conservation (CESCO), Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle, Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, Sorbonne Université, Station Marine de Concarneau, Concarneau Cedex, France
| | - Thomas Galewski
- Tour du Valat, Institut de recherche pour la conservation des zones humides méditerranéennes, Arles, France
| | - Olivier Boutron
- Tour du Valat, Institut de recherche pour la conservation des zones humides méditerranéennes, Arles, France
| | - Laura Dami
- Tour du Valat, Institut de recherche pour la conservation des zones humides méditerranéennes, Arles, France
| | | | - Anis Guelmami
- Tour du Valat, Institut de recherche pour la conservation des zones humides méditerranéennes, Arles, France
| | - Romain Julliard
- Centre d'Ecologie et des Sciences de la Conservation (CESCO), Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle, Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, Sorbonne Université, Station Marine de Concarneau, Concarneau Cedex, France
| | - Nadège Popoff
- Aquabio, 108 Av. du Lac Léman, La Motte-Servolex, France
| | - Marie Suet
- Tour du Valat, Institut de recherche pour la conservation des zones humides méditerranéennes, Arles, France
| | - Loïc Willm
- Tour du Valat, Institut de recherche pour la conservation des zones humides méditerranéennes, Arles, France
| | - Wed Abdou
- Egyptian Environmental Affairs Agency, El Maadi Helwan, Egypt
| | - Hichem Azafzaf
- Association "Les Amis des Oiseaux" (AAO/BirdLife en Tunisie), Ariana, Tunisia
| | | | - Taulant Bino
- Albanian Ornithological Society, "Ymer Kurti", Olympia Center, Tirana, Albania
| | - John J Borg
- National Museum of Natural History, Vilhena Palace, Mdina, Malta
| | - Luka Božič
- DOPPS - Birdlife Slovenia, Ljubljana, Slovenia
| | - Mohamed Dakki
- Groupe de Recherche pour la Protection des Oiseaux au Maroc (GREPOM), Résidence Oum Hani IV, Salé, Morocco
| | - Rhimou El Hamoumi
- Ecology and Environment Laboratory, Faculty of Sciences Ben M'sik, University Hassan II of Casablanca, Casablanca, Morocco
| | - Vitor Encarnação
- Instituto da Conservação da Natureza e das Florestas, IP (ICNF), Centro de Estudos de Migrações e Proteção de Aves (CEMPA), Lisboa, Portugal
| | | | - Khaled Etayeb
- Zoology Department, Faculty of Science, the University of Tripoli. Alfornaj, Tripoli, Libya
| | - Valeri Georgiev
- Ministry of Environment and Water, National Nature Protection Service Directorate, Sofia, Bulgaria
| | - Ayman Hamada
- Egyptian Environmental Affairs Agency, El Maadi Helwan, Egypt
| | - Ohad Hatzofe
- Israel Nature and Parks Authority Headquarters Am V'Olamo 3, Jerusalem, Israel
| | | | | | - Tibor Mikuska
- Croatian Society for Bird and Nature Protection, Osijek, Croatia
| | - Blas Molina
- Sociedad Española de Ornitología (SEO/BirdLife), Madrid, Spain
| | - Filipe Moniz
- Instituto da Conservação da Natureza e das Florestas, Lisbon, Portugal
| | - Caroline Moussy
- LPO-BirdLife France, Fonderies Royales, Rochefort Cedex, France
| | - Asmaâ Ouassou
- Groupe de Recherche pour la Protection des Oiseaux au Maroc (GREPOM), Résidence Oum Hani IV, Salé, Morocco
| | - Nicky Petkov
- Bulgarian Society for the Protection of Birds, Sofia, Bulgaria
| | | | - Tareq Qaneer
- The Royal Society for the Conservation of Nature (RSCN), Jubaiha, Jordan
| | - Samir Sayoud
- Direction générale des Forêts, Ben Aknoun, Algeria
| | - Marko Šćiban
- Bird Protection and Study Society of Serbia, Novi Sad, Serbia
| | - Goran Topić
- Nase Ptice Ornithological Society, Sarajevo, Bosnia and Herzegovina
| | | | - Gal Vine
- The Royal Society for the Conservation of Nature (RSCN), Jubaiha, Jordan
| | - Andrej Vizi
- History Museum of Montenegro, Trg Vojvode Bećir-bega Osmanagića 16, Podgorica, Montenegro
| | - Erald Xeka
- Albanian Ornithological Society, "Ymer Kurti", Olympia Center, Tirana, Albania
| | - Marco Zenatello
- Istituto Superiore per la Protezione e la Ricerca Ambientale (ISPRA), Ozzano dell'Emilia, Italy
| | - Elie Gaget
- Department of Biology, University of Turku, Turku, Finland
| | - Isabelle Le Viol
- Centre d'Ecologie et des Sciences de la Conservation (CESCO), Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle, Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, Sorbonne Université, Station Marine de Concarneau, Concarneau Cedex, France
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Soultan A, Pavón-Jordán D, Bradter U, Sandercock BK, Hochachka WM, Johnston A, Brommer J, Gaget E, Keller V, Knaus P, Aghababyan K, Maxhuni Q, Vintchevski A, Nagy K, Raudonikis L, Balmer D, Noble D, Leitão D, Øien IJ, Shimmings P, Sultanov E, Caffrey B, Boyla K, Radišić D, Lindström Å, Velevski M, Pladevall C, Brotons L, Karel Š, Rajković DZ, Chodkiewicz T, Wilk T, Szép T, van Turnhout C, Foppen R, Burfield I, Vikstrøm T, Mazal VD, Eaton M, Vorisek P, Lehikoinen A, Herrando S, Kuzmenko T, Bauer HG, Kalyakin MV, Voltzit OV, Sjeničić J, Pärt T. The future distribution of wetland birds breeding in Europe validated against observed changes in distribution. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS 2022; 17:024025. [DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ac4ebe] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 07/25/2023]
Abstract
Abstract
Wetland bird species have been declining in population size worldwide as climate warming and land-use change affect their suitable habitats. We used species distribution models (SDMs) to predict changes in range dynamics for 64 non-passerine wetland birds breeding in Europe, including range size, position of centroid, and margins. We fitted the SDMs with data collected for the first European Breeding Bird Atlas and climate and land-use data to predict distributional changes over a century (the 1970s–2070s). The predicted annual changes were then compared to observed annual changes in range size and range centroid over a time period of 30 years using data from the second European Breeding Bird Atlas. Our models successfully predicted ca. 75% of the 64 bird species to contract their breeding range in the future, while the remaining species (mostly southerly breeding species) were predicted to expand their breeding ranges northward. The northern margins of southerly species and southern margins of northerly species, both, predicted to shift northward. Predicted changes in range size and shifts in range centroids were broadly positively associated with the observed changes, although some species deviated markedly from the predictions. The predicted average shift in core distributions was ca. 5 km yr−1 towards the north (5% northeast, 45% north, and 40% northwest), compared to a slower observed average shift of ca. 3.9 km yr−1. Predicted changes in range centroids were generally larger than observed changes, which suggests that bird distribution changes may lag behind environmental changes leading to ‘climate debt’. We suggest that predictions of SDMs should be viewed as qualitative rather than quantitative outcomes, indicating that care should be taken concerning single species. Still, our results highlight the urgent need for management actions such as wetland creation and restoration to improve wetland birds’ resilience to the expected environmental changes in the future.
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