Development and validation of a novel prognostic score to predict survival in patients with metastatic colorectal cancer: the metastatic colorectal cancer score (mCCS)

Novel tumor marker index combining carcinoembryonic antigen and carbohydrate antigen 19-9: New prognostic factor for metastatic colorectal cancer

BACKGROUND

Metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC) is a global health challenge with a poor prognosis. Prognostic markers are critical for survival prediction.

AIM

To evaluate a novel tumor marker index (TMI) combining carcinoembryonic antigen and carbohydrate antigen 19-9.

METHODS

This multicenter, retrospective study measured baseline carcinoembryonic antigen and carbohydrate antigen 19-9 levels to calculate a TMI as the geometric mean of values normalized to their upper limits of normal. Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis assessed TMI’s prognostic accuracy, and patients were stratified into high-TMI (≥ 1.39) and low-TMI (< 1.39) groups. The primary endpoint was overall survival (OS), with progression-free survival and treatment response as secondary endpoints.

RESULTS

The study included 305 mCRC patients with a median follow-up of 22.9 months. The median OS for high-TMI patients was 29.5 months, significantly lower than the 45.6 months observed in the low-TMI group (P = 0.02). The 2-year OS rates for the high- and low-TMI groups were 59.4% and 72.9%, respectively. Median progression-free survival was also shorter for the high-TMI group (14.0 vs 16.0 months, P = 0.84). High TMI is an independent prognostic factor for worse OS.

CONCLUSION

TMI is a simple, cost-effective prognostic tool for mCRC, with high TMI associated with poorer survival outcomes.

FOLFIRINOX or gemcitabine/nab-paclitaxel in advanced pancreatic adenocarcinoma: A novel validated prognostic score to facilitate treatment decision-making in real-world

There is no prospective, randomised head-to-head trial comparing first-line FOLFIRINOX and gemcitabine/nab-paclitaxel in advanced pancreatic cancer. We assess real-world effectiveness and quality of life (QoL) of both regimens using a new prognostic score. This analysis includes 1540 patients with advanced pancreatic cancer from the prospective, clinical cohort study Tumour Registry Pancreatic Cancer separated into learning (n = 1027) and validation sample (n = 513). The Pancreatic Cancer Score (PCS) was developed using multivariate Cox regression. We compared overall survival (OS) and time to deterioration (TTD) for longitudinal QoL between first-line FOLFIRINOX (n = 407) and gemcitabine/nab-paclitaxel (n = 655) according to patients' prognostic risk, after inverse probability of treatment weighting (IPTW) by propensity score analysis. The PCS includes nine independent prognostic factors for survival: female sex, BMI ≥24/unknown, ECOG performance status ≥1, Charlson comorbidity index ≥1, tumour staging IV/unknown at primary diagnosis, liver metastases, bilirubin >1.5× upper limit of normal (ULN), leukocytes >ULN and neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio ≥4. Median OS of the validation sample was 11.4 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 10.4-14.4), 8.5 (95% CI: 6.8-9.6) and 5.9 months (95% CI: 4.0-7.4) for favourable- (0-3 risk factors), intermediate- (4-5 factors) and poor-risk group (6-9 factors), respectively. After IPTW, only poor-risk patients had significantly longer median OS and TTD of overall QoL with FOLFIRINOX (OS: 6.9 months, 95% CI: 3.9-13.3; TTD: 10.6 months, 95% CI: 2.0-14.1) vs gemcitabine/nab-paclitaxel (OS: 4.0 months, 95% CI: 2.8-4.8; TTD: 4.1 months, 95% CI: 2.4-4.5). Our novel PCS may facilitate treatment decisions in clinical routine of advanced pancreatic cancer, since only poor-risk, but not favourable-risk patients, seem to benefit from intensified treatment with FOLFIRINOX.

Integrated clinicomolecular characterization identifies RAS activation and CDKN2A deletion as independent adverse prognostic factors in cancer of unknown primary

Cancer of unknown primary (CUP) denotes a malignancy with histologically confirmed metastatic spread while the primary tumor remains elusive. Here, we address prognostic and therapeutic implications of mutations and copy number variations (CNVs) detected in tumor tissue in the context of a comprehensive clinical risk assessment. Targeted panel sequencing was performed in 252 CUP patients. 71.8% of patients had unfavorable CUP according to ESMO guidelines. 74.7% were adeno- and 13.7% squamous cell carcinomas. DNA was extracted from microdissected formalin-fixed, paraffin-embedded tissues. For library preparation, mostly multiplex PCR-based Ion Torrent AmpliSeq™ technology with Oncomine comprehensive assays was used. Most frequent genetic alterations were mutations/deletions of TP53 (49.6%), CDKN2A (19.0%) and NOTCH1 (14.1%) as well as oncogenic activation of KRAS (23.4%), FGFR4 (14.9%) and PIK3CA (10.7%). KRAS activation was predominantly found in adenocarcinomas (p = 0.01), PIK3CA activation in squamous cell carcinomas (p = 0.03). Male sex, high ECOG score, unfavorable CUP, higher number of involved organs and RAS activation predicted decreased event-free and overall survival in multivariate analysis. Deletions of CDKN2A were prognostically adverse regarding overall survival. TP53 mutations did not significantly influence prognosis in the overall cohort, but worsened prognosis in otherwise favorable CUP subtypes. Although not standard in CUP, for 17/198 (8.6%) patients molecularly targeted treatment was recommended and 10 patients (5.1%) were treated accordingly. In conclusion, besides the identification of drug targets, panel sequencing in CUP is prognostically relevant, with RAS activation and CDKN2A deletion emerging as novel independent risk factors in a comprehensive assessment with clinicopathological data.

Association of Disease Progression With Health-Related Quality of Life Among Adults With Breast, Lung, Pancreatic, and Colorectal Cancer

IMPORTANCE

Mortality, morbidity, and health-related quality of life (HRQoL) are patient-relevant end points generally considered in the early benefit assessments of new cancer treatments. Progression-related end points, such as time to progression or progression-free survival, are not included, although patients and physicians testify to the detrimental association of disease progression with HRQoL.

OBJECTIVE

To examine the association of disease progression and HRQoL in 4 prevalent solid-cancer entities in routine clinical practice.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

This cohort study evaluated data from 4 prospective, nonintervention, multicenter registries collected between 2011 and 2018 in 203 centers in Germany. Patients' HRQoL was assessed regularly for up to 5 years. The change in HRQoL scores after disease progression was examined with linear mixed models, adjusting for demographic and clinical covariates. Patients with metastatic breast, pancreatic, lung, and colorectal cancer were recruited at the start of systemic first-line treatment. Data analysis was performed from February 2019 to April 2019.

EXPOSURES

All patients received systemic, palliative first-line treatment according to their physician's choice.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

The primary outcome was deterioration of HRQoL associated with disease progression, as measured by 4 validated questionnaires: Functional Assessment of Cancer Therapy-General version 4, European Organization for Research and Treatment of Cancer QLQ-C30 version 3.0, European Organization for Research and Treatment of Cancer QLQ-C15-PAL version 1, and Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale.

RESULTS

More than 8000 questionnaires from 2314 patients with 2562 documented disease progressions were analyzed. In total, 464 patients had breast cancer (464 [100.0%] female; median [range] age, 61.6 [26.4-90.1] years), 807 patients had pancreatic cancer (352 [43.6%] female; median [range] age, 70.0 [39.0-93.0] years), 341 patients had lung cancer (118 [34.6%] female; median [range] age, 65.9 [28.4-88.2] years), and 702 patients had colorectal cancer (248 [35.3%] female; median [range] age, 66.9 [26.9-92.1] years). The first disease progression was associated with a statistically significant worsening of 37 of 45 HRQoL scales; for 17 of these scales, the worsening was clinically meaningful. Scale scores for appetite loss (pancreatic cancer, 10.2 points [95% CI, 6.8-13.5 points]; lung cancer, 10.8 points [95% CI, 5.4-16.2 points]; colorectal cancer, 8.8 points [95% CI, 5.5-12.2]; all P < .001), physical functioning (pancreatic cancer, 6.2 points [95% CI, 3.8-8.5 points]; lung cancer, 8.4 points [95% CI, 5.4-11.5 points]; colorectal cancer, 5.0 points [95% CI, 3.0-7.0 points]; all P < .001), and fatigue (pancreatic cancer, 5.5 points [95% CI, 3.0-7.9 points]; lung cancer, 7.7 points [95% CI, 4.3-11.1]; colorectal cancer, 4.5 points [95% CI, 2.1-6.9 points]; all P < .001) were most affected, irrespective of the type of cancer. The association with global HRQoL was most pronounced in lung cancer (6.7 points [95% CI, 3.5-9.9 points]; P < .001) and pancreatic cancer (5.4 points [95% CI, 3.3-7.5 points]; P < .001) and less in colorectal cancer (3.5 points [95% CI, 1.3-5.7 points]; P = .002) and breast cancer (2.4 points [95% CI, 1.0-3.9 points]; P = .001). The second progression was associated with an even larger decrease in HRQoL.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

These findings suggest that disease progression is associated with a deterioration in HRQoL among patients with metastatic breast, pancreatic, lung, and colorectal cancer. This evidence highlights the importance of progression-related end points, such as time to progression and progression-free survival, as additional patient-relevant end points when evaluating the benefit of new treatments for patients with metastatic cancer.