Parameter Inference for Computational Cognitive Models with Approximate Bayesian Computation

Exploration potential sepsis-ferroptosis mechanisms through the use of CETSA technology and network pharmacology

As an important self-protection response mechanism of the body, inflammation can not only remove the necrotic or even malignant cells in the body, but also take a series of targeted measures to eliminate the pathogen of foreign invasion and block the foreign substances that may affect the life and health of the body. Flavonoids have known anti-inflammatory, anti-oxidation, anti-cancer and other effects, including glycyrrhizin molecules is one of the representatives. Licochalcone D has known anti-inflammatory and antioxidant properties and is effective in the treatment of a variety of inflammatory diseases. However, the underlying mechanism for the treatment of sepsis remains unclear. In this study, the therapeutic potential of Licochalcone D for sepsis was studied by analyzing network pharmacology and molecular dynamics simulation methods. Sepsis-related genes were collected from the database to construct PPI network maps and drug-targeting network profiles. The potential mechanism of Licochalcone D in sepsis was predicted by gene ontology, KEGG and molecular dynamics simulation. Sixty drug-disease genes were subsequently validated. Go analysis showed that monomeric small molecule Licochalcone D could regulate the process of intracellular enzyme system. The KEGG pathway analysis showed that the signal pathway of the main effect was related to the calcium pathway. The results of intersections with iron death-related target genes showed that ALOX5, ALOX15B and other nine targets all had the effect of possibly improving sepsis, while GSE 54,514, GSE 95,233 and GSE 69,528 were used to analyze the survival rate and ROC curve. Five genes were screened, including ALOX5, ALOX15B, NFE2L2 and NR4A1, HIF1A. The results of molecular docking showed that ALOX5 and Licochalcone D had strong binding activity. Finally, the results of molecular dynamics simulation showed that there was good binding power between drug and target. In the present study, we utilized molecular dynamics simulation techniques to assess the binding affinity between the small-molecule ligand and the protein receptor. The simulation outcomes demonstrate that the binding interface between the ligand and receptor remains stable, with a calculated binding free energy (ΔG) of -32.47 kJ/mol. This signifies a high-affinity interaction between the ligand and receptor, suggesting the long-term stability of the small molecule under physiological conditions. These findings provide critical insights for drug development efforts. This study elucidates the therapeutic potential of Licochalcone D, a traditional Chinese medicine monomer, in improving sepsis through the regulation of ferroptosis, thereby providing a new direction and option for subsequent clinical drug development in the treatment of sepsis.

Designing optimal behavioral experiments using machine learning

Computational models are powerful tools for understanding human cognition and behavior. They let us express our theories clearly and precisely and offer predictions that can be subtle and often counter-intuitive. However, this same richness and ability to surprise means our scientific intuitions and traditional tools are ill-suited to designing experiments to test and compare these models. To avoid these pitfalls and realize the full potential of computational modeling, we require tools to design experiments that provide clear answers about what models explain human behavior and the auxiliary assumptions those models must make. Bayesian optimal experimental design (BOED) formalizes the search for optimal experimental designs by identifying experiments that are expected to yield informative data. In this work, we provide a tutorial on leveraging recent advances in BOED and machine learning to find optimal experiments for any kind of model that we can simulate data from, and show how by-products of this procedure allow for quick and straightforward evaluation of models and their parameters against real experimental data. As a case study, we consider theories of how people balance exploration and exploitation in multi-armed bandit decision-making tasks. We validate the presented approach using simulations and a real-world experiment. As compared to experimental designs commonly used in the literature, we show that our optimal designs more efficiently determine which of a set of models best account for individual human behavior, and more efficiently characterize behavior given a preferred model. At the same time, formalizing a scientific question such that it can be adequately addressed with BOED can be challenging and we discuss several potential caveats and pitfalls that practitioners should be aware of. We provide code to replicate all analyses as well as tutorial notebooks and pointers to adapt the methodology to different experimental settings.

The influence of inter-regional delays in generating large-scale brain networks of phase synchronization

Large-scale networks of phase synchronization are considered to regulate the communication between brain regions fundamental to cognitive function, but the mapping to their structural substrates, i.e., the structure-function relationship, remains poorly understood. Biophysical Network Models (BNMs) have demonstrated the influences of local oscillatory activity and inter-regional anatomical connections in generating alpha-band (8-12 Hz) networks of phase synchronization observed with Electroencephalography (EEG) and Magnetoencephalography (MEG). Yet, the influence of inter-regional conduction delays remains unknown. In this study, we compared a BNM with standard "distance-dependent delays", which assumes constant conduction velocity, to BNMs with delays specified by two alternative methods accounting for spatially varying conduction velocities, "isochronous delays" and "mixed delays". We followed the Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) workflow, i) specifying neurophysiologically informed prior distributions of BNM parameters, ii) verifying the suitability of the prior distributions with Prior Predictive Checks, iii) fitting each of the three BNMs to alpha-band MEG resting-state data (N = 75) with Bayesian optimization for Likelihood-Free Inference (BOLFI), and iv) choosing between the fitted BNMs with ABC model comparison on a separate MEG dataset (N = 30). Prior Predictive Checks revealed the range of dynamics generated by each of the BNMs to encompass those seen in the MEG data, suggesting the suitability of the prior distributions. Fitting the models to MEG data yielded reliable posterior distributions of the parameters of each of the BNMs. Finally, model comparison revealed the BNM with "distance-dependent delays", as the most probable to describe the generation of alpha-band networks of phase synchronization seen in MEG. These findings suggest that distance-dependent delays might contribute to the neocortical architecture of human alpha-band networks of phase synchronization. Hence, our study illuminates the role of inter-regional delays in generating the large-scale networks of phase synchronization that might subserve the communication between regions vital to cognition.

Moving from phenomenological to predictive modelling: Progress and pitfalls of modelling brain stimulation in-silico

Brain stimulation is an increasingly popular neuromodulatory tool used in both clinical and research settings; however, the effects of brain stimulation, particularly those of non-invasive stimulation, are variable. This variability can be partially explained by an incomplete mechanistic understanding, coupled with a combinatorial explosion of possible stimulation parameters. Computational models constitute a useful tool to explore the vast sea of stimulation parameters and characterise their effects on brain activity. Yet the utility of modelling stimulation in-silico relies on its biophysical relevance, which needs to account for the dynamics of large and diverse neural populations and how underlying networks shape those collective dynamics. The large number of parameters to consider when constructing a model is no less than those needed to consider when planning empirical studies. This piece is centred on the application of phenomenological and biophysical models in non-invasive brain stimulation. We first introduce common forms of brain stimulation and computational models, and provide typical construction choices made when building phenomenological and biophysical models. Through the lens of four case studies, we provide an account of the questions these models can address, commonalities, and limitations across studies. We conclude by proposing future directions to fully realise the potential of computational models of brain stimulation for the design of personalized, efficient, and effective stimulation strategies.

Mandrake: visualizing microbial population structure by embedding millions of genomes into a low-dimensional representation

In less than a decade, population genomics of microbes has progressed from the effort of sequencing dozens of strains to thousands, or even tens of thousands of strains in a single study. There are now hundreds of thousands of genomes available even for a single bacterial species, and the number of genomes is expected to continue to increase at an accelerated pace given the advances in sequencing technology and widespread genomic surveillance initiatives. This explosion of data calls for innovative methods to enable rapid exploration of the structure of a population based on different data modalities, such as multiple sequence alignments, assemblies and estimates of gene content across different genomes. Here, we present Mandrake, an efficient implementation of a dimensional reduction method tailored for the needs of large-scale population genomics. Mandrake is capable of visualizing population structure from millions of whole genomes, and we illustrate its usefulness with several datasets representing major pathogens. Our method is freely available both as an analysis pipeline (https://github.com/johnlees/mandrake) and as a browser-based interactive application (https://gtonkinhill.github.io/mandrake-web/).

This article is part of a discussion meeting issue ‘Genomic population structures of microbial pathogens’.

Flexible and efficient simulation-based inference for models of decision-making

Inferring parameters of computational models that capture experimental data is a central task in cognitive neuroscience. Bayesian statistical inference methods usually require the ability to evaluate the likelihood of the model—however, for many models of interest in cognitive neuroscience, the associated likelihoods cannot be computed efficiently. Simulation-based inference (SBI) offers a solution to this problem by only requiring access to simulations produced by the model. Previously, Fengler et al. introduced likelihood approximation networks (LANs, Fengler et al., 2021) which make it possible to apply SBI to models of decision-making but require billions of simulations for training. Here, we provide a new SBI method that is substantially more simulation efficient. Our approach, mixed neural likelihood estimation (MNLE), trains neural density estimators on model simulations to emulate the simulator and is designed to capture both the continuous (e.g., reaction times) and discrete (choices) data of decision-making models. The likelihoods of the emulator can then be used to perform Bayesian parameter inference on experimental data using standard approximate inference methods like Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling. We demonstrate MNLE on two variants of the drift-diffusion model and show that it is substantially more efficient than LANs: MNLE achieves similar likelihood accuracy with six orders of magnitude fewer training simulations and is significantly more accurate than LANs when both are trained with the same budget. Our approach enables researchers to perform SBI on custom-tailored models of decision-making, leading to fast iteration of model design for scientific discovery.

Individual Differences in Cue Weighting in Sentence Comprehension: An Evaluation Using Approximate Bayesian Computation

Cue-based retrieval theories of sentence processing assume that syntactic dependencies are resolved through a content-addressable search process. An important recent claim is that in certain dependency types, the retrieval cues are weighted such that one cue dominates. This cue-weighting proposal aims to explain the observed average behavior, but here we show that there is systematic individual-level variation in cue weighting. Using the Lewis and Vasishth cue-based retrieval model, we estimated individual-level parameters for reading speed and cue weighting using 13 published datasets; hierarchical approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) was used to estimate the parameters. The modeling reveals a nuanced picture of cue weighting: we find support for the idea that some participants weight cues differentially, but not all participants do. Only fast readers tend to have the predicted higher weighting for structural cues, suggesting that reading proficiency (approximated here by reading speed) might be associated with cue weighting. A broader achievement of the work is to demonstrate how individual differences can be investigated in computational models of sentence processing without compromising the complexity of the model.

Interference patterns in subject-verb agreement and reflexives revisited: A large-sample study

Cue-based retrieval theories in sentence processing predict two classes of interference effect: (i) Inhibitory interference is predicted when multiple items match a retrieval cue: cue-overloading leads to an overall slowdown in reading time; and (ii) Facilitatory interference arises when a retrieval target as well as a distractor only partially match the retrieval cues; this partial matching leads to an overall speedup in retrieval time. Inhibitory interference effects are widely observed, but facilitatory interference apparently has an exception: reflexives have been claimed to show no facilitatory interference effects. Because the claim is based on underpowered studies, we conducted a large-sample experiment that investigated both facilitatory and inhibitory interference. In contrast to previous studies, we find facilitatory interference effects in reflexives. We also present a quantitative evaluation of the cue-based retrieval model of Engelmann et al. (2019), with respect to the reflexives data. Data and code are available from: https://osf.io/reavs/.

Using approximate Bayesian computation for estimating parameters in the cue-based retrieval model of sentence processing

A commonly used approach to parameter estimation in computational models is the so-called grid search procedure: the entire parameter space is searched in small steps to determine the parameter value that provides the best fit to the observed data. This approach has several disadvantages: first, it can be computationally very expensive; second, one optimal point value of the parameter is reported as the best fit value; we cannot quantify our uncertainty about the parameter estimate. In the main journal article that this methods article accompanies (Jäger et al., 2020, Interference patterns in subject-verb agreement and reflexives revisited: A large-sample study, Journal of Memory and Language), we carried out parameter estimation using Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC), which is a Bayesian approach that allows us to quantify our uncertainty about the parameter's values given data. This customization has the further advantage that it allows us to generate both prior and posterior predictive distributions of reading times from the cue-based retrieval model of Lewis and Vasishth, 2005.•Instead of the conventional method of using grid search, we use Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) for parameter estimation in the [4] model.•The ABC method of parameter estimation has the advantage that the uncertainty of the parameter can be quantified.