Exploratory Analysis of the Factors Associated With Success Rates of Confirmatory Randomized Controlled Trials in Cancer Drug Development

Factors associated with successful phase III trials for solid tumors: A systematic review

Background

It is known that the success rates of phase III trials for solid cancers are low. The aim of this study was to investigate factors related to trial design and operation that were associated with the probability of the success of phase III trials for solid cancers based on the latest comprehensive data.

Methods

Relevant clinical trials, started between September 2007 and December 2017, were retrieved from ClinicalTrials.gov. Then, variables related to the selected trials such as types of primary endpoint and duration of trial enrollment were collected from the literature and ClinicalTrials.gov. Based on the collected data, a multivariate logistic regression analysis was conducted to find factors associated with the successful results.

Results

Four hundred phase III trials were found eligible for the study. Unsuccessful trials were 207 and successful trials were 193. As a result of multivariate logistic regression analysis, factors that presented a statistically significant relationship were primary endpoint (Odds ratio [OR]: 2.79 [95% CI: 1.59–4.89]), control arm (OR: 3.06 [95% CI: 1.39–6.73]), start year of trial (OR: 3.28 [95% CI: 1.87–5.77]), and duration of trial enrollment (OR: 0.77 [95% CI: 0.60–0.99]).

Conclusion

Type of primary endpoints (time-to-event endpoints other than overall survival), control arm (treatments with lower evidence level, placebo or best supportive care), and duration of trial enrollment (faster enrollment speed) were associated with phase III trial success.

Supplementation with a Natural Source of Amino Acids, Sil-Q1 (Silk Peptide), Enhances Natural Killer Cell Activity: A Redesigned Clinical Trial with a Reduced Supplementation Dose and Minimized Seasonal Effects in a Larger Population

The aim of this study was to re-validate the changes in natural killer (NK) cell cytotoxicity and cytokines related to T cells after Sil-Q1 (SQ; silk peptide) supplementation in a larger pool of Korean adults with minimized daily dose of SQ and controlling seasonal influence compared to the previous study. A total of 130 subjects were randomly assigned (1:1) to consume either 7.5 g of SQ or placebo for 8 weeks. NK cell cytotoxicity and cytokines were measured at T0 (baseline) and T8 (follow-up). Comparing the NK cell cytotoxicity values at T0 and T8 within each group, the cytotoxicity at all effector cell (E) to target cell (T) ratios of 10:1, 5:1, 2.5:1, and 1.25:1 was significantly increased in the SQ group at T8. Additionally, significant differences in the changed value (Δ, subtract baseline values from follow-up values) comparison between the groups at E:T = 10:1, 5:1, and 2.5:1 were found. As a secondary endpoint, the interleukin (IL)-12 level in the SQ group was significantly increased for 8 weeks, and Δ IL-12 in the SQ group was greater than in the placebo group. In conclusion, the present study showed considerable practical implications of SQ supplementation. Thus, SQ is an effective and safe functional food supplement for enhancing immune function.