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Hällfors MH, Heikkinen RK, Kuussaari M, Lehikoinen A, Luoto M, Pöyry J, Virkkala R, Saastamoinen M, Kujala H. Recent range shifts of moths, butterflies, and birds are driven by the breadth of their climatic niche. Evol Lett 2024; 8:89-100. [PMID: 38370541 PMCID: PMC10872046 DOI: 10.1093/evlett/qrad004] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/30/2022] [Revised: 01/26/2023] [Accepted: 02/07/2023] [Indexed: 02/20/2024] Open
Abstract
Species are altering their ranges as a response to climate change, but the magnitude and direction of observed range shifts vary considerably among species. The ability to persist in current areas and colonize new areas plays a crucial role in determining which species will thrive and which decline as climate change progresses. Several studies have sought to identify characteristics, such as morphological and life-history traits, that could explain differences in the capability of species to shift their ranges together with a changing climate. These characteristics have explained variation in range shifts only sporadically, thus offering an uncertain tool for discerning responses among species. As long-term selection to past climates have shaped species' tolerances, metrics describing species' contemporary climatic niches may provide an alternative means for understanding responses to on-going climate change. Species that occur in a broader range of climatic conditions may hold greater tolerance to climatic variability and could therefore more readily maintain their historical ranges, while species with more narrow tolerances may only persist if they are able to shift in space to track their climatic niche. Here, we provide a first-filter test of the effect of climatic niche dimensions on shifts in the leading range edges in three relatively well-dispersing species groups. Based on the realized changes in the northern range edges of 383 moth, butterfly, and bird species across a boreal 1,100 km latitudinal gradient over c. 20 years, we show that while most morphological or life-history traits were not strongly connected with range shifts, moths and birds occupying a narrower thermal niche and butterflies occupying a broader moisture niche across their European distribution show stronger shifts towards the north. Our results indicate that the climatic niche may be important for predicting responses under climate change and as such warrants further investigation of potential mechanistic underpinnings.
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Affiliation(s)
- Maria H Hällfors
- Research Centre for Environmental Change, Organismal and Evolutionary Biology Research Programme, Faculty of Biological and Environmental Sciences, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland
- Nature solutions unit, Finnish Environment Institute (Syke), Helsinki, Finland
| | - Risto K Heikkinen
- Nature solutions unit, Finnish Environment Institute (Syke), Helsinki, Finland
| | - Mikko Kuussaari
- Nature solutions unit, Finnish Environment Institute (Syke), Helsinki, Finland
| | - Aleksi Lehikoinen
- Finnish Museum of Natural History, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland
| | - Miska Luoto
- Department of Geosciences and Geography, Faculty of Science, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland
| | - Juha Pöyry
- Nature solutions unit, Finnish Environment Institute (Syke), Helsinki, Finland
| | - Raimo Virkkala
- Nature solutions unit, Finnish Environment Institute (Syke), Helsinki, Finland
| | - Marjo Saastamoinen
- Research Centre for Environmental Change, Organismal and Evolutionary Biology Research Programme, Faculty of Biological and Environmental Sciences, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland
- Helsinki Institute of Life Science, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland
| | - Heini Kujala
- Finnish Museum of Natural History, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland
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Sunde J, Franzén M, Betzholtz PE, Francioli Y, Pettersson LB, Pöyry J, Ryrholm N, Forsman A. Century-long butterfly range expansions in northern Europe depend on climate, land use and species traits. Commun Biol 2023; 6:601. [PMID: 37270651 DOI: 10.1038/s42003-023-04967-z] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/15/2022] [Accepted: 05/23/2023] [Indexed: 06/05/2023] Open
Abstract
Climate change is an important driver of range shifts and community composition changes. Still, little is known about how the responses are influenced by the combination of land use, species interactions and species traits. We integrate climate and distributional data for 131 butterfly species in Sweden and Finland and show that cumulative species richness has increased with increasing temperature over the past 120 years. Average provincial species richness increased by 64% (range 15-229%), from 46 to 70. The rate and direction of range expansions have not matched the temperature changes, in part because colonisations have been modified by other climatic variables, land use and vary according to species characteristics representing ecological generalisation and species interactions. Results emphasise the role of a broad ecological filtering, whereby a mismatch between environmental conditions and species preferences limit the ability to disperse and establish populations in emerging climates and novel areas, with potentially widespread implications for ecosystem functioning.
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Affiliation(s)
- Johanna Sunde
- Department of Biology and Environmental Science, Linnaeus University, SE-39182, Kalmar, Sweden.
| | - Markus Franzén
- Department of Biology and Environmental Science, Linnaeus University, SE-39182, Kalmar, Sweden
| | - Per-Eric Betzholtz
- Department of Biology and Environmental Science, Linnaeus University, SE-39182, Kalmar, Sweden
| | - Yannick Francioli
- Department of Biology and Environmental Science, Linnaeus University, SE-39182, Kalmar, Sweden
| | - Lars B Pettersson
- Biodiversity Unit, Department of Biology, Lund University, SE-22362, Lund, Sweden
| | - Juha Pöyry
- Finnish Environment Institute (SYKE), Nature Solutions, Latokartanonkaari 11, FI-00790, Helsinki, Finland
| | - Nils Ryrholm
- Department of Electronics, Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Faculty of Engineering and Sustainable Development, University of Gävle, SE-80176, Gävle, Sweden
| | - Anders Forsman
- Department of Biology and Environmental Science, Linnaeus University, SE-39182, Kalmar, Sweden
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Hällfors MH, Pöyry J, Heliölä J, Kohonen I, Kuussaari M, Leinonen R, Schmucki R, Sihvonen P, Saastamoinen M. Combining range and phenology shifts offers a winning strategy for boreal Lepidoptera. Ecol Lett 2021; 24:1619-1632. [PMID: 34101328 DOI: 10.1111/ele.13774] [Citation(s) in RCA: 18] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/16/2020] [Revised: 02/15/2021] [Accepted: 04/14/2021] [Indexed: 01/01/2023]
Abstract
Species can adapt to climate change by adjusting in situ or by dispersing to new areas, and these strategies may complement or enhance each other. Here, we investigate temporal shifts in phenology and spatial shifts in northern range boundaries for 289 Lepidoptera species by using long-term data sampled over two decades. While 40% of the species neither advanced phenology nor moved northward, nearly half (45%) used one of the two strategies. The strongest positive population trends were observed for the minority of species (15%) that both advanced flight phenology and shifted their northern range boundaries northward. We show that, for boreal Lepidoptera, a combination of phenology and range shifts is the most viable strategy under a changing climate. Effectively, this may divide species into winners and losers based on their propensity to capitalize on this combination, with potentially large consequences on future community composition.
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Affiliation(s)
- Maria H Hällfors
- Research Centre for Environmental Change, Organismal and Evolutionary Biology Research Programme, Faculty of Biological and Environmental Sciences, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland.,Life-history Evolution Research Group, Organismal and Evolutionary Biology Research Programme, Faculty of Biological and Environmental Sciences, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland
| | - Juha Pöyry
- Biodiversity Centre, Finnish Environment Institute (SYKE), Helsinki, Finland
| | - Janne Heliölä
- Biodiversity Centre, Finnish Environment Institute (SYKE), Helsinki, Finland
| | - Ilmari Kohonen
- Finnish Museum of Natural History, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland
| | - Mikko Kuussaari
- Biodiversity Centre, Finnish Environment Institute (SYKE), Helsinki, Finland
| | - Reima Leinonen
- Kainuu Centre for Economic Development, Transport and the Environment, Kajaani, Finland
| | | | - Pasi Sihvonen
- Finnish Museum of Natural History, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland
| | - Marjo Saastamoinen
- Research Centre for Environmental Change, Organismal and Evolutionary Biology Research Programme, Faculty of Biological and Environmental Sciences, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland.,Life-history Evolution Research Group, Organismal and Evolutionary Biology Research Programme, Faculty of Biological and Environmental Sciences, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland.,Helsinki Institute of Life Science, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland
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