Human Behavior in Project Portfolio Selection: Insights from an Experimental Study

The power of past performance in multidimensional supplier evaluation and supplier selection: Debiasing anchoring bias and its knock-on effects

This research examines how anchoring bias affects managers' multi-dimensional evaluations of supplier performance, supplier selection, and the effectiveness of two debiasing techniques. We consider the supplier past performance in one performance dimension as the anchor and investigate whether and how this anchor would have a knock-on effects on evaluating a supplier's performance in other dimensions. We conducted two online experimental studies (Study 1, sample size = 104 and Study 2, sample size = 408). Study 1 adopts a 2 x 1 (high anchor vs. low anchor) between-subjects factorial experimental design, and Study 2 is a 3 (debiasing: no, consider-the-opposite, mental-mapping) x 2 (high anchor vs. low anchor) between-subjects factorial design. The results from Studies 1 and 2 suggest that when a supplier has received a low evaluation score in one dimension in the past, participants assign the same supplier lower scores in the other dimensions compared to a supplier that has obtained a high score in the past. We also find that anchoring has a knock-on effect on how likely participants are to choose the same supplier in the future. Our findings highlight the asymmetric effectiveness of 'consider-the-opposite' and 'mental-mapping' debiasing techniques. This research is the first study that examines how anchoring bias managers' evaluations in a multi-dimensional setting and its knock-on effects. It also explores the effectiveness of two low-cost debiasing techniques. A crucial practical implication is that suppliers' exceptionally good or disappointing past performance affects the judgement of supply managers. Hence, managers should use consider-the-opposite or mental-mapping techniques to debias the effect of high and low anchors, respectively.

MCDM-Based R&D Project Selection: A Systematic Literature Review

From small spin-offs deploying innovative software to big pharmaceutical complexes making vaccines, Research and Development (R&D) Project Portfolio Selection (PPS) is an essential strategic process for various companies. It was never easy to select a set of projects among many feasible possibilities, even for yesterday’s paces. However, the world is rapidly changing, and so is R&D PPS. The portfolio objectives excel profit in the same manner that model constraints go beyond budget limitations. In parallel, project selection approaches and solving algorithms followed the increase of computational power. Despite all those changes, the importance of Multi-Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) methods and the decision criteria used for R&D PPS, there is still room for a systematic literature review (SLR) for the topic. Thus, this paper offers an SLR of the existing literature from the half-century, 1970, and onward MCDM-based R&D PPS performed in Scopus and Web of Science Core Collection. We provide a comprehensive picture of this field, show how it is changing, and highlight standard practices and research opportunities in the area. We perform a broad classification of the MCDM methods, categorized by the nature of alternatives, types of integration approach, the MCDM method itself, and types of uncertainty, by the 66 studies in the SLR database. The portfolios’ classification obeys the application domain and the number of projects. We have also explored all the 263 criteria found in the literature by grouping them according to experts from five Brazilian R&D organizations that together manage portfolios valued around US$ 5 billion a year, accounting for 38% of all Brazilian annual expenditure in R&D projects. We also include a bibliometric analysis of the considered papers and research opportunities highlighted or not explored by researchers. Given the increasing number of decision-making approaches and new technologies available, we hope to provide guidance on the topic and promote knowledge production and growth concerning the usage of MCDM methods and decision criteria in R&D PPS.

Perspectives on the Capabilities for the Selection of Strategic Projects

Strategic projects are large scale, complex, and require significant investments and resources. These projects aim at gaining long-term social and economic benefits. Therefore, organizations focusing on strategic projects should use a consistent approach that suits their strategy, capability, and long-term expectations. Based on the four research questions and content analysis of the literature, generic processes used for the strategic project selection in tandem with the managerial capabilities are identified in this paper. The generic processes and managerial capabilities are used to develop a generic framework for strategic project selection. The framework is used for literature analysis in the paper. The review shows that both qualitative and quantitative methods are used for strategic project selection. Some possible research directions have also been proposed at the end of the review. The paper provides value to both researchers and practitioners in terms of tools available and a guidance on project selection through a structured process framework.