Development of a nomogram for the prediction of pathological complete response after neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy in patients with esophageal squamous cell carcinoma

Development and validation of a clinical risk score nomogram for predicting voriconazole trough concentration above 5 mg/L: a retrospective cohort study

The therapeutic range of voriconazole (VRC) is narrow, this study aimed to explore factors influencing VRC plasma concentrations > 5 mg/L and to construct a clinical risk score nomogram prediction model. Clinical data from 221 patients with VRC prophylaxis and treatment were retrospectively analyzed. The patients were randomly divided into a training cohort and a validation cohort at a 7:3 ratio. Univariate and binary logistic regression analysis was used to select independent risk factors for VRC plasma concentration above the high limit (5 mg/L). Four indicators including age, weight, CYP2C19 genotype, and albumin were selected to construct the nomogram prediction model. The area under the curve values of the training cohort and the validation cohort were 0.841 and 0.802, respectively. The decision curve analysis suggests that the nomogram model had good clinical applicability. In conclusion, the nomogram provides a reference for early screening and intervention in a high-risk population.

The Use of Trimodality Treatment in Patients With Locally Advanced Oesophageal Squamous Cell Carcinoma: An Experience From a Large Cancer Centre in Pakistan

Introduction Esophageal cancer is one of the most common cancers worldwide. Neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy followed by surgery is the standard treatment for locally advanced squamous cell carcinoma (SCC). Pathological complete response (pCR) after surgery is associated with better outcomes in terms of overall survival and disease-free survival. We aim to determine the effectiveness of neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy in patients with locally advanced SCC at our institute, the largest purpose-built cancer center in Pakistan. We also aim to identify various factors influencing pCR, such as chemotherapy regimen, total radiation dose, clinical stage at presentation, and gender. Materials and methods This is a retrospective review of all patients with esophageal SCC presented between January 2019 and 2021 to the institute for treatment. Patients received neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (nCRT) as per the CROSS trial protocol, followed by surgery. We assessed the pCR rate. Statistical analyses were performed using IBM SPSS Statistics for Windows, Version 22 (Released 2013; IBM Corp., Armonk, New York). pCR was studied alongside associated factors such as age, gender, stage of disease, chemotherapy regimen, and total dose of radiotherapy. A p-value of <0.05 was considered statistically significant. The chi-square test was used to compare categorical variables. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression was employed to evaluate factors affecting pCR. Results A total of 218 patients were included in the study. pCR was achieved in 64.2% of the patients. The female gender was associated with better outcomes, as 70.4% (n=81) of female patients achieved a complete pathological response, compared to 57.3% (n=59) of males, with a p-value of 0.03. On univariate analysis, the complete pathological response was 69.6% (n=94) in the age group of 45 years and below, whereas it was 55.4% (n=46) in the age group above 45 years, with a p-value of 0.024. Though statistically insignificant, outcomes were slightly better for those with node-negative disease, as 67.2% (n=41) achieved complete pathological response compared to those with node-positive disease at 63.1% (n=99). Univariate logistic regression analysis identified gender (p=0.044, OR=1.77, 95% CI: 1.016-3.108) and age group (p=0.034, OR=1.844, 95% CI: 1.046-3.252) as significantly associated with pCR. Female patients were 77% more likely to achieve pCR compared to male patients (OR=1.77, 95% CI: 1.016-3.108). Younger patients (≤45 years) were 84.4% more likely to achieve pCR compared to the older age group (OR=1.844, 95% CI: 1.046-3.252). However, these did not maintain significance in multivariate logistic regression analysis. Conclusion Our study indicated a high rate of pCR with nCRT in patients with esophageal SCC compared to other studies. The achievement of pCR was higher among females and younger patients, which was statistically significant on univariate logistic regression analysis. Our study also concluded that a higher dose of RT (50Gy/25#) is not superior to a lower dose (45Gy/25#) in terms of pCR achievement but was statistically insignificant. Similarly, CARBO/PAC was not superior to CIS/CAP in terms of pCR achievement and was also statistically insignificant.

Factors affecting the ORR after neoadjuvant therapy of TP regimen combined with PD-1 inhibitors for esophageal cancer

The aim of this study is to evaluate the factors affecting the objective response rate (ORR) after neoadjuvant therapy of taxol plus platinum (TP) regimen combined with programmed cell death protein-1 (PD-1) inhibitors for esophageal cancer, and establish a predictive model for forecasting ORR. According to the inclusion and exclusion criteria, consecutive esophageal cancer patients who were treated in the First Affiliated Hospital of Xi'an Jiaotong University from January 2020 to February 2022 were enrolled in this study as a training cohort, while patients who were treated in the Shaanxi Provincial Cancer Hospital Affiliated to Medical College of Xi'an Jiaotong University from January 2020 to December 2021 were enrolled as a validation cohort. All patients were treated with resectable locally advanced esophageal cancer and received neoadjuvant chemotherapy combined with immunotherapy. The ORR was defined as the sum of complete pathological response, major pathological response and partial pathological response. Logistic regression analysis was performed to determine the factors that might be related to the ORR of the patients after neoadjuvant therapy. The nomogram based on the result of regression analysis was established and verified to predict the ORR. In this study, 42 patients were included as training cohort and 53 patients were included as validation cohort. Chi-square analysis showed that neutrophil, platelet, platelet-to-lymphocytes ratio (PLR), systemic immune-inflammation index (SII), D-dimer and carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) between ORR group and non-ORR group were significantly different. Logistic regression analysis showed that aspartate aminotransferase (AST), D-dimer and CEA were independent predictors of ORR after neoadjuvant immunotherapy. Finally, a nomogram was established based on AST, D-dimer and CEA. Internal validation and external validation revealed that the nomogram had a good ability to predict ORR after neoadjuvant immunotherapy. In conclusion, AST, D-dimer and CEA were the independent predictors of ORR after neoadjuvant immunotherapy. The nomogram based on these three indicators showed a good predictive ability.

Influence of adverse effects of neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy on the prognosis of patients with early-stage esophageal cancer (cT1b-cT2N0M0) based on the SEER database

Objective

To analyze the prognostic impact of neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (NCRT) on early-stage (cT1b-cT2N0M0) esophageal cancer (ESCA) and construct a prognostic nomogram for these patients.

Methods

We extracted the clinical data about patients diagnosed with early-stage esophageal cancer from the 2004-2015 period of the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. We applied the independent risk factors affecting the prognosis of patients with early-stage esophageal cancer obtained after screening by univariate and multifactorial COX regression analyses to establish the nomogram and performed model calibration using bootstrapping resamples. The optimal cut-off point for continuous variables is determined by applying X-tile software. After balancing the confounding factors by propensity score matching (PSM) and inverse probability of treatment weighting (IPTW) method, Kaplan-Meier(K-M) curve, and log-rank test were applied to evaluate the prognostic impact of NCRT on early-stage ESCA patients.

Results

Among patients who met the inclusion criteria, patients in the NCRT plus esophagectomy (ES) group had a poorer prognosis for overall survival (OS) and esophageal cancer-specific survival (ECSS) than patients in the ES alone group (p < 0.05), especially in patients who survived longer than 1 year. After PSM, patients in the NCRT + ES group had poorer ECSS than patients in the ES alone group, especially after 6 months, while OS was not significantly different between the two groups. IPTW analysis showed that, prior to 6 months patients in the NCRT + ES group had a better prognosis than patients in the ES group, regardless of OS or ECSS, whereas after 6 months, patients in the NCRT + ES group had a poorer prognosis. Based on multivariate COX analysis, we established a prognostic nomogram which showed areas under the ROC curve (AUC) for 3-, 5-, and 10-year OS 0.707, 0.712, and 0.706, respectively, with the calibration curves showing that the nomogram was well calibrated.

Conclusions

Patients with early-stage ESCA (cT1b-cT2) did not benefit from NCRT, and we established a prognostic nomogram to provide clinical decision aid for the treatment of patients with early-stage ESCA.

Pathological complete response after neoadjuvant treatment determines survival in esophageal squamous cell carcinoma patients (NEOCRTEC5010)

BACKGROUND

Few studies have exclusively investigated the value of pathological complete response (pCR), in esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) patients, although it is a clinically significant parameter to evaluate the impact of neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (nCRT) on treatment outcome after surgery. The aim of our study was to explore the relationship between pCR after nCRT and survival among patients with local ESCC.

METHODS

All patients receiving nCRT followed by surgery in NEOCRTEC5010-trial (NCT01216527) were included. Non-pCR patients were classified into three subgroups: ypTanyN0M0, ypT0NanyM0 and ypTanyNanyM0. The Kaplan-Meier method with log-rank test was employed to evaluate disease-free survival (DFS) and overall survival (OS). Multivariate regression analysis was performed using a Cox proportional hazards model to identify clinicopathological parameters associated with pCR.

RESULTS

Among the 185 patients included, 80 (43.2%) achieved pCR after nCRT. The mean survival time of the pCR group was significantly longer than that of the non-pCR group (92.6 vs. 69.2 months; HR, 2.70; 95% CI: 1.48-4.92; P=0.001). The 5-year OS and DFS of the pCR group were 79.3% and 77% respectively, compared to 54.8% and 51.2%, respectively, in the non-pCR group. The results showed that the OS and DFS of the ypTanyN0M0 group were better than those of the ypT0NanyM0 group and the ypTanyNanyM0 group. We also found that the number of dissected lymph nodes and pCR were independent risk factors for DFS and OS rates.

CONCLUSIONS

pCR after nCRT is an important prognostic indicator of OS and DFS in patients with ESCC. In addition, lymph-node status could represent an important parameter in the prognostic evaluation of esophageal cancer patients.

Prediction of Pathologic Response to Neoadjuvant Chemoradiotherapy in Patients with Esophageal Squamous Cell Carcinoma Incorporating Hematological Biomarkers

PURPOSE

This study aimed to develop a nomogram for predicting pathologic complete response (pCR) after neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (CRT) in patients with esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) by integrating hematological biomarkers and clinicopathological characteristics.

Materials and Methods

Between 2003 and 2017, 306 ESCC patients who underwent neoadjuvant CRT followed by esophagectomy were analyzed. Besides clinicopathological factors, hematological parameters before, during, and after CRT were collected. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were performed to identify predictive factors for pCR. A nomogram model was built and internally validated.

RESULTS

Absolute lymphocyte count (ALC), lymphocyte to monocyte ratio, albumin, hemoglobin, white blood cell, neutrophil, and platelet count generally declined, whereas neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio (NLR) and platelet to lymphocyte ratio (PLR) increased significantly following neoadjuvant CRT. After surgery, 124 patients (40.5%) achieved a pCR. The pCR group demonstrated significantly more favorable survival than the non-pCR group. On multivariate analysis, significant factors associated with pCR included sex, chemotherapy regimen, post-CRT endoscopic finding, pre-CRT NLR, ALC nadir during CRT, and post-CRT PLR, which were incorporated into the prediction model. The nomogram indicated good accuracy in predicting pCR, with a C-index of 0.75 (95% confidence interval, 0.71 to 0.78).

CONCLUSION

Female, chemotherapy regimen of cisplatin/vinorelbine, negative post-CRT endoscopic finding, pre-CRT NLR (≤ 2.1), ALC nadir during CRT (> 0.35 ×109/L), and post-CRT PLR (≤ 83.0) were significantly associated with pCR in ESCC patients treated with neoadjuvant CRT. A nomogram incorporating hematological biomarkers to predict pCR was developed and internally validated, showing good predictive performance.

A three-lncRNA signature of pretreatment biopsies predicts pathological response and outcome in esophageal squamous cell carcinoma with neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy

BACKGROUND

Current strategies are insufficient to predict pathologically complete response (pCR) for esophageal squamous cell carcinomas (ESCCs) before treatment. Here, we aim to develop a novel long noncoding RNA (lncRNA) signature for pCR and outcome prediction of ESCCs through a multicenter analysis for a Chinese population.

METHODS

Differentially expressed lncRNAs (DELs) between pCRs and less than pCR (

RESULTS

Twelve DELs were identified from Guangzhou cohort and six lncRNAs were verified. Then, a classifier of three lncRNAs (SCAT1, PRKAG2-AS1, and FLG-AS1) was established and achieved a high accuracy with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.952 in the training cohort, which was well validated in the internal validation cohort and external cohort with the AUCs of 0.856 and 0.817, respectively. Furthermore, the predictive score was identified as the only independent predictor for pCR. Patients with high discriminant score showed a significantly longer overall and relapse-free survival (P < .05).

CONCLUSIONS

We developed the first and applicable three-lncRNA signature of pCR and outcome prediction, which is robust and reproducible in multicenter cohorts for ESCCs with nCRT.

Collapse

Key Words

• esophageal squamous cell carcinoma
• individualized medicine
• lncRNAs
• neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy
• pathologically complete response

Collapse

MESH Headings Collapse

Grants

• 2017-I2M-1-005 CAMS Innovation Fund for Medical Sciences
• 2016-I2M-1-001 CAMS Innovation Fund for Medical Sciences
• 2016YFC1303201 National Key R&D Program of China
• 81802299 National Natural Science Foundation of China
• 81502514 National Natural Science Foundation of China
• 3332018070 Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities
• 2018YFC1312105 National Key Basic Research Development Plan
• 7204291 Beijing Natural Science Foundation
• LC2019B18 Beijing Hope Run Special Fund of Cancer Foundation of China
• National Natural Science Foundation of China
• Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities
• Beijing Natural Science Foundation

Collapse

Affiliation(s)

Chaoqi Zhang Department of Thoracic SurgeryNational Cancer CenterNational Clinical Research Center for CancerCancer HospitalChinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical CollegeBeijingChina
Zhihui Zhang Department of Thoracic SurgeryNational Cancer CenterNational Clinical Research Center for CancerCancer HospitalChinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical CollegeBeijingChina
Guochao Zhang Department of Thoracic SurgeryNational Cancer CenterNational Clinical Research Center for CancerCancer HospitalChinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical CollegeBeijingChina
Liyan Xue Department of PathologyNational Cancer CenterNational Clinical Research Center for CancerCancer HospitalChinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical CollegeBeijingChina
Haijun Yang Department of PathologyAnyang Cancer HospitalThe Fourth Affiliated Hospital of Henan University of Science and TechnologyAnyangHenanChina
Yuejun Luo Department of Thoracic SurgeryNational Cancer CenterNational Clinical Research Center for CancerCancer HospitalChinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical CollegeBeijingChina
Xiaoli Zheng Department of radiotherapyThe Affiliated Cancer hospital of Zhengzhou UniversityZhengzhouHenanChina
Yonglei Zhang Department of General SurgeryThe Affiliated Cancer Hospital of Zhengzhou UniversityZhengzhouHenanChina
Yufen Yuan Department of PathologyAnyang Cancer HospitalThe Fourth Affiliated Hospital of Henan University of Science and TechnologyAnyangHenanChina
Ruixue Lei Department of PathologyAnyang Cancer HospitalThe Fourth Affiliated Hospital of Henan University of Science and TechnologyAnyangHenanChina
Zhaoyang Yang Department of PathologyNational Cancer CenterNational Clinical Research Center for CancerCancer HospitalChinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical CollegeBeijingChina
Bo Zheng Department of PathologyNational Cancer CenterNational Clinical Research Center for CancerCancer HospitalChinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical CollegeBeijingChina
Zhen Zhang Biotherapy CenterThe First Affiliated Hospital of Zhengzhou UniversityZhengzhouHenanChina
Le Wang Department of OtologyThe First Affiliated Hospital of Zhengzhou UniversityZhengzhouHenanChina
Yun Che Department of Thoracic SurgeryNational Cancer CenterNational Clinical Research Center for CancerCancer HospitalChinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical CollegeBeijingChina
Sihui Wang Department of Thoracic SurgeryNational Cancer CenterNational Clinical Research Center for CancerCancer HospitalChinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical CollegeBeijingChina
Feng Wang Department of Thoracic SurgeryNational Cancer CenterNational Clinical Research Center for CancerCancer HospitalChinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical CollegeBeijingChina
Lingling Fang Department of Thoracic SurgeryNational Cancer CenterNational Clinical Research Center for CancerCancer HospitalChinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical CollegeBeijingChina
Qingpeng Zeng Department of Thoracic SurgeryNational Cancer CenterNational Clinical Research Center for CancerCancer HospitalChinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical CollegeBeijingChina
Jiagen Li Department of Thoracic SurgeryNational Cancer CenterNational Clinical Research Center for CancerCancer HospitalChinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical CollegeBeijingChina
Shugeng Gao Department of Thoracic SurgeryNational Cancer CenterNational Clinical Research Center for CancerCancer HospitalChinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical CollegeBeijingChina
Qi Xue Department of Thoracic SurgeryNational Cancer CenterNational Clinical Research Center for CancerCancer HospitalChinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical CollegeBeijingChina
Nan Sun Department of Thoracic SurgeryNational Cancer CenterNational Clinical Research Center for CancerCancer HospitalChinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical CollegeBeijingChina
Jie He Department of Thoracic SurgeryNational Cancer CenterNational Clinical Research Center for CancerCancer HospitalChinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical CollegeBeijingChina

Collapse

Collaborators Collapse

CT-based radiomic signatures for prediction of pathologic complete response in esophageal squamous cell carcinoma after neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy

The objective of this study was to build models to predict complete pathologic response (pCR) after neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (nCRT) in esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) patients using radiomic features. A total of 55 consecutive patients pathologically diagnosed as having ESCC were included in this study. Patients were divided into a training cohort (44 patients) and a testing cohort (11 patients). The logistic regression analysis using likelihood ratio forward selection was performed to select the predictive clinical parameters for pCR, and the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) with logistic regression to select radiomic predictors in the training cohort. Model performance in the training and testing groups was evaluated using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUC). The multivariate logistic regression analysis identified no clinical predictors for pCR. Thus, only radiomic features selected by LASSO were used to build prediction models. Three logistic regression models for pCR prediction were developed in the training cohort, and they were able to predict pCR well in both the training (AUC, 0.84-0.86) and the testing cohorts (AUC, 0.71-0.79). There were no differences between these AUCs. We developed three predictive models for pCR after nCRT using radiomic parameters and they demonstrated good model performance.