A mortality risk prediction model for older adults with lymph node-positive colon cancer

Prediction of lymph node metastasis in stage I-III colon cancer patients younger than 40 years

AIMS

Developing a clinical model to predict the individual risk of lymph node metastasis (LNM) in young colon cancer (CC) patients may address an unmet clinical need.

METHODS

A total of 2,360 CC patients under 40 years old were extracted from the SEER database and randomly divided into development and validation cohorts. Risk factors for LNM were identified by using a logistic regression model. A weighted scoring system was built according to beta coefficients (β) calculated by a logistic regression model. Model discrimination was evaluated by C-statistics, model calibration was evaluated by H-L test and calibration plot.

RESULTS

Risk factors were identified as T stage, tumor site, grade and histology. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC-ROC) was 0.66 in both cohorts, indicating acceptable discriminatory power. The H-L test showed good calibration in the development cohort (χ2=2.869, P=0.837) and validation cohort (χ2=10.103, P=0.120) which also had been proved by calibration plot. Patients with total risk score of 0-1, 2-3 and 4-6 were considered as low, medium and high risk group.

CONCLUSION

This clinical risk prediction model is accurate enough to identify young CC patients with high risk of LNM and can further provide individualized clinical reference.

CT-Based Body Composition and Frailty as Predictors of Survival Among Older Adults With Gastrointestinal Malignancies

BACKGROUND

Older adults with cancer are at an increased risk of treatment related toxicities and early death. Routinely collected clinico-demographic characteristics inadequately explain this increased risk limiting accurate prognostication. Prior studies have suggested that altered body composition and frailty are independently associated with worse survival among older adults with cancer; however, their combined influence remains unclear.

METHODS

We used data from a single-institution prospective cohort study of older adults (≥ 60 years) who underwent geriatric assessment (GA) at the time of initial consultation with a medical oncologist from September 2017 to December 2020 and available baseline abdominal computed tomography within 60 days of GA. Using multi-slice CT images from T12 to L5 level, we assessed volumetric measures of skeletal muscle (SMV), visceral adipose tissue (VATV), subcutaneous adipose tissue (SATV) and averaged skeletal muscle density (SMD), computing sex-specific z for each measure. Frailty was measured using a 44-item frailty index using the deficit accumulation approach. Primary outcome of interest was overall survival (OS) defined as time from GA to death or last follow up. We used multivariable Cox regression model to study the independent association between the above four body composition measurements and OS adjusted for baseline confounders and frailty.

RESULTS

We included 459 patients with a mean age of 69.7 ± 7.5 years, 60% males and 77% non-Hispanic Whites. Most had colorectal (27%) or pancreatic cancer (20%) and 48% had stage IV disease. Over a median follow up of 39.4 months, 209 patients (46%) died. In multivariable Cox regression models adjusted for age, sex, race, cancer type, cancer stage and frailty, skeletal muscle volume (HR 0.74; 95% CI 0.58-0.96; p = 0.02, per 1 SD increment) was independently associated with OS. The addition of body composition variables to baseline clinico-demographic variables and frailty led to a slightly improved model discrimination.

CONCLUSIONS

SMV is independently associated with OS among older adults with newly diagnosed gastrointestinal cancers. Capturing body composition measurements in oncology practice may provide additional prognostic information for older adults with cancer above and beyond what is captured in routine clinical assessment including frailty.

Frailty worsens long-term survival in patients with colorectal cancer: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Background

Colorectal cancer (CRC) is the 3rd most common cancer in men and 2nd most common malignancy in females across the globe leading to high mortality rates. Frailty is an age-related syndrome that has been associated with high morbidity and mortality. This systematic review aimed to examine if frailty can predict long-term (>1 year) outcomes of patients with CRC.

Methods

This PROSPERO registered review examined the databases of PubMed, Embase, and Web of Science till 4th September 2023 for cohort studies assessing the association between frailty and long-term outcomes of CRC.

Results

15 studies with 45288 patients were included. 6573 patients (14.5%) were frail. Meta-analysis demonstrated that frailty was associated with statistically significant poor overall survival (OS) (HR: 2.11 95% CI: 1.44, 3.08 I2 = 94%) (14 studies), cancer-specific survival (CSS) (HR: 4.59 95% CI: 2.75, 7.67 I2 = 38%) (2 studies), and disease-free survival (DFS) (HR: 1.46 95% CI: 1.28, 1.66 I2 = 0%) (5 studies) after CRC. Subgroup analysis for OS based on study type, location, sample size, stage of cancer, percentage with frailty, treatment, adjustment for CRC stage and comorbidities, and follow-up did not change the results. These results were not altered in significance on sensitivity analysis.

Conclusion

Our results show that frail CRC patients have poor OS and DFS as compared to non-frail patients. Variations in frailty measurement tools and high inter-study heterogeneity are major limitations of the review.

Systematic review registration

https://www.crd.york.ac.uk/prospero/, PROSPERO, CRD42023450586.

Variation in the practice of cholecystectomy for benign biliary disease in Aotearoa New Zealand: a population-based cohort study

INTRODUCTION

Cholecystectomy for benign biliary disease is common and its delivery should be standardised. However, the current practice of cholecystectomy in Aotearoa New Zealand is unknown.

METHODS

A prospective, national cohort study of consecutive patients having cholecystectomy for benign biliary disease was performed between August and October 2021 with 30-day follow-up, through STRATA, a student- and trainee-led collaborative.

RESULTS

Data were collected for 1171 patients from 16 centres. 651 (55.6%) had an acute operation at index admission, 304 (26.0%) had delayed cholecystectomy following a previous admission, and 216 (18.4%) had an elective operation with no preceding acute admissions. The median adjusted rate of index cholecystectomy (as a proportion of index and delayed cholecystectomy) was 71.9% (range 27.2%-87.3%). The median adjusted rate of elective cholecystectomy (as proportion of all cholecystectomies) was 20.8% (range 6.7%-35.4%). Variations across centres were significant (p < 0.001) and inadequately explained by patient, operative, or hospital-factors (index cholecystectomy model R² = 25.8, elective cholecystectomy model R² = 50.6).

CONCLUSIONS

Notable variation in the rates of index and elective cholecystectomy exists in Aotearoa New Zealand not attributable to patient, operative or hospital factors alone. National quality improvement efforts to standardise availability of cholecystectomy are needed.

Factors Related to Frailty in Older Cancer Patients Undergoing Colorectal Surgery: A Longitudinal Study

BACKGROUND

Frailty is common in older cancer patients undergoing colorectal surgery, but few studies have focused on frailty and its associations in this population.

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this study was to investigate the prevalence of frailty and its associations in older cancer patients undergoing colorectal surgery.

METHODS

A convenience sample of 88 cancer patients 60 years or older undergoing colorectal surgery was recruited from 1 medical center. Frailty, physical activity, functional status, anxiety, depression, and social support of the patients were assessed before surgery, at discharge post surgery, and at 1 month post surgery.

RESULTS

The prevalence of frailty in cancer patients undergoing colorectal surgery was 22.7% before surgery, decreased to 19.3% before discharge, and was 12.7% at 1 month after surgery. The proportion of prefrail patients significantly increased from 47.7% before surgery to 71.1% before discharge and was 64.6% at 1 month after surgery. Frail patients were more likely to be older and unmarried, have a lower albumin level, have lower physical activity, and be more dependent on others than nonfrail patients.

CONCLUSION

Older cancer patients undergoing colorectal surgery were more likely to be prefrail after surgery than before surgery. Assessment of frailty and its associated factors is necessary for older cancer patients undergoing colorectal surgery before and after surgery.

IMPLICATIONS FOR PRACTICE

Frailty may occur in cancer patients after colorectal surgery and is related to malnutrition and low physical activity. Appropriate discharge planning with physical activity tracking and an appropriate diet is encouraged to prevent frailty in cancer patients after colorectal surgery.

Frailty and long-term survival of patients with colorectal cancer: a meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Frailty has been related with the risk of postoperative complication in patients with colorectal cancer (CRC). However, the association between frailty and long-term survival in patients with CRC has not been comprehensively evaluated. We performed a meta-analysis to systematically evaluate the relationship between frailty and long-term survival of these patients.

METHODS

Relevant cohort studies with follow-up duration ≥ 1 year were identified from Medline, Embase, and Web of Science. A random-effect model after incorporation of the between-study heterogeneity was selected to pool the results.

RESULTS

Ten cohort studies with 35,546 patients were included, and 4100 (11.5%) of them had frailty. Pooled results showed that patients with frailty had worse overall survival compared to those without frailty at baseline (relative risk [RR]: 2.21, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.43-3.41, P < 0.001; I² = 92%). Results were consistent for studies adjusting age (RR: 2.20, P < 0.001) or including older cancer patients only (RR: 2.28, P = 0.002). Subgroup analyses showed that difference in study design, follow-up duration, or study quality scores may not significantly affect the findings (P for subgroup analyses all > 0.05). Further meta-analyses with two datasets showed that frailty was also associated with worse cancer-specific survival (RR: 4.60, 95% CI 2.75-7.67, P < 0.001; I² = 38%) and recurrence-free survival (RR: 1.72, 95% CI 1.30-2.28, P < 0.001; I² = 0%).

CONCLUSIONS

Frailty at admission is associated with worse survival of patients with colorectal cancer.

Selecting the number of categories of the lymph node ratio in cancer research: A bootstrap-based hypothesis test

The high impact of the lymph node ratio as a prognostic factor is widely established in colorectal cancer, and is being used as a categorized predictor variable in several studies. However, the cut-off points as well as the number of categories considered differ considerably in the literature. Motivated by the need to obtain the best categorization of the lymph node ratio as a predictor of mortality in colorectal cancer patients, we propose a method to select the best number of categories for a continuous variable in a logistic regression framework. Thus, to this end, we propose a bootstrap-based hypothesis test, together with a new estimation algorithm for the optimal location of the cut-off points called BackAddFor, which is an updated version of the previously proposed AddFor algorithm. The performance of the hypothesis test was evaluated by means of a simulation study, under different scenarios, yielding type I errors close to the nominal errors and good power values whenever a meaningful difference in terms of prediction ability existed. Finally, the methodology proposed was applied to the CCR-CARESS study where the lymph node ratio was included as a predictor of five-year mortality, resulting in the selection of three categories.

A Preoperative Risk Prediction Model for Lymph Node Examination of Stage I-III Colon Cancer Patients: A Population-Based Study

Background: Lymph node examination is a prognostic indicator for colon cancer (CC) patients. The aim of this study was to develop and validate a preoperative risk prediction model for inadequate lymph node examination. Methods: 24284 patients diagnosed as stage I-III CC between 2010-2014 were extracted from SEER database and randomly divided into development cohort (N=12142) and internal validation cohort (N=12142). 680 patients diagnosed as stage I-III CC between 2012-2014 were extracted from our hospital as external validation cohort. Logistic regression analysis was performed and risk score of each factor was calculated according to model formula. Model discrimination was assessed using C-statistics. Results: Preoperative risk factors were identified as gender, age, tumor site and tumor size. Patients with total risk score of 0-6 were considered as low risk group while patients scored ≥13 were considered as high risk group. The model had good discrimination and calibration in all cohorts and could apply to patients in the SEER database (American population) and patients in our hospital (Chinese population). Conclusions: The model could accurately predict the risk of inadequate lymph node examination before surgery and might provide useful reference for surgeons and pathologists.

Predictors of one and two years' mortality in patients with colon cancer: A prospective cohort study

Background

Tools to aid in the prognosis assessment of colon cancer patients in terms of risk of mortality are needed. Goals of this study are to develop and validate clinical prediction rules for 1- and 2-year mortality in these patients.

Methods

This is a prospective cohort study of patients diagnosed with colon cancer who underwent surgery at 22 hospitals. The main outcomes were mortality at 1 and 2 years after surgery. Background, clinical parameters, and diagnostic tests findings were evaluated as possible predictors. Multivariable multilevel logistic regression and survival models were used in the analyses to create the clinical prediction rules. Models developed in the derivation sample were validated in another sample of the study.

Results

American Society of Anesthesiologists Physical Status Classification System (ASA), Charlson comorbidity index (> = 4), age (>75 years), residual tumor (R2), TNM stage IV and log of lymph nodes ratio (> = -0.53) were predictors of 1-year mortality (C-index (95% CI): 0.865 (0.792–0.938)). Adjuvant chemotherapy was an additional predictor. Again ASA, Charlson Index (> = 4), age (>75 years), log of lymph nodes ratio (> = -0.53), TNM, and residual tumor were predictors of 2-year mortality (C-index:0.821 (0.766–0.876). Chemotherapy was also an additional predictor.

Conclusions

These clinical prediction rules show very good predictive abilities of one and two years survival and provide clinicians and patients with an easy and quick-to-use decision tool for use in the clinical decision process while the patient is still in the index admission.

Combining statistical techniques to predict postsurgical risk of 1-year mortality for patients with colon cancer

Introduction

Colorectal cancer is one of the most frequently diagnosed malignancies and a common cause of cancer-related mortality. The aim of this study was to develop and validate a clinical predictive model for 1-year mortality among patients with colon cancer who survive for at least 30 days after surgery.

Methods

Patients diagnosed with colon cancer who had surgery for the first time and who survived 30 days after the surgery were selected prospectively. The outcome was mortality within 1 year. Random forest, genetic algorithms and classification and regression trees were combined in order to identify the variables and partition points that optimally classify patients by risk of mortality. The resulting decision tree was categorized into four risk categories. Split-sample and bootstrap validation were performed. ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT02488161.

Results

A total of 1945 patients were enrolled in the study. The variables identified as the main predictors of 1-year mortality were presence of residual tumor, American Society of Anesthesiologists Physical Status Classification System risk score, pathologic tumor staging, Charlson Comorbidity Index, intraoperative complications, adjuvant chemotherapy and recurrence of tumor. The model was internally validated; area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) was 0.896 in the derivation sample and 0.835 in the validation sample. Risk categorization leads to AUC values of 0.875 and 0.832 in the derivation and validation samples, respectively. Optimal cut-off point of estimated risk had a sensitivity of 0.889 and a specificity of 0.758.

Conclusion

The decision tree was a simple, interpretable, valid and accurate prediction rule of 1-year mortality among colon cancer patients who survived for at least 30 days after surgery.

Population-based cohort study of outcomes following cholecystectomy for benign gallbladder diseases

BACKGROUND

The aim was to describe the management of benign gallbladder disease and identify characteristics associated with all-cause 30-day readmissions and complications in a prospective population-based cohort.

METHODS

Data were collected on consecutive patients undergoing cholecystectomy in acute UK and Irish hospitals between 1 March and 1 May 2014. Potential explanatory variables influencing all-cause 30-day readmissions and complications were analysed by means of multilevel, multivariable logistic regression modelling using a two-level hierarchical structure with patients (level 1) nested within hospitals (level 2).

RESULTS

Data were collected on 8909 patients undergoing cholecystectomy from 167 hospitals. Some 1451 cholecystectomies (16·3 per cent) were performed as an emergency, 4165 (46·8 per cent) as elective operations, and 3293 patients (37·0 per cent) had had at least one previous emergency admission, but had surgery on a delayed basis. The readmission and complication rates at 30 days were 7·1 per cent (633 of 8909) and 10·8 per cent (962 of 8909) respectively. Both readmissions and complications were independently associated with increasing ASA fitness grade, duration of surgery, and increasing numbers of emergency admissions with gallbladder disease before cholecystectomy. No identifiable hospital characteristics were linked to readmissions and complications.

CONCLUSION

Readmissions and complications following cholecystectomy are common and associated with patient and disease characteristics.