Predicting coral community recovery using multi‐species population dynamics models

The projected degradation of subtropical coral assemblages by recurrent thermal stress

Subtropical coral assemblages are threatened by similar extreme thermal stress events to their tropical counterparts. Yet, the mid- and long-term thermal stress responses of corals in subtropical environments remain largely unquantified, limiting our capacity to predict their future viability. The annual survival, growth and recruitment of 311 individual corals within the Solitary Islands Marine Park (Australia) was recorded over a 3-year period (2016-2018), including the 2015/2016 thermal stress event. These data were used to parameterise integral projection models quantifying the effect of thermal stress within a subtropical coral assemblage. Stochastic simulations were also applied to evaluate the implications of recurrent thermal stress scenarios predicted by four different Representative Concentration Pathways. We report differential shifts in population growth rates (λ) among coral populations during both stress and non-stress periods, confirming contrasting bleaching responses among taxa. However, even during non-stress periods, the observed dynamics for all taxa were unable to maintain current community composition, highlighting the need for external recruitment sources to support the community structure. Across all coral taxa, projected stochastic growth rates (λ_s ) were found to be lowest under higher emissions scenarios. Correspondingly, predicted increases in recurrent thermal stress regimes may accelerate the loss of coral coverage, species diversity and structural complexity within subtropical regions. We suggest that these trends are primarily due to the susceptibility of subtropical specialists and endemic species, such as Pocillopora aliciae, to thermal stress. Similarly, the viability of many tropical coral populations at higher latitudes is highly dependent on the persistence of up-current tropical systems. As such, the inherent dynamics of subtropical coral populations appear unable to support their future persistence under unprecedented thermal disturbance scenarios.

Using Artificial-Reef Knowledge to Enhance the Ecological Function of Offshore Wind Turbine Foundations: Implications for Fish Abundance and Diversity

As the development of large-scale offshore wind farms (OWFs) amplifies due to technological progress and a growing demand for renewable energy, associated footprints on the seabed are becoming increasingly common within soft-bottom environments. A large part of the footprint is the scour protection, often consisting of rocks that are positioned on the seabed to prevent erosion. As such, scour protection may resemble a marine rocky reef and could have important ecosystem functions. While acknowledging that OWFs disrupt the marine environment, the aim of this systematic review was to examine the effects of scour protection on fish assemblages, relate them to the effects of designated artificial reefs (ARs) and, ultimately, reveal how future scour protection may be tailored to support abundance and diversity of marine species. The results revealed frequent increases in abundances of species associated with hard substrata after the establishment of artificial structures (i.e., both OWFs and ARs) in the marine environment. Literature indicated that scour protection meets the requirements to function as an AR, often providing shelter, nursery, reproduction, and/or feeding opportunities. Using knowledge from AR models, this review suggests methodology for ecological improvements of future scour protections, aiming towards a more successful integration into the marine environment.