Evaluating the suitability of close-kin mark-recapture as a demographic modelling tool for a critically endangered elasmobranch population

Temporal Variability in Effective Size ( N ̂ e ) Identifies Potential Sources of Discrepancies Between Mark Recapture and Close Kin Mark Recapture Estimates of Population Abundance

Although efforts to estimate effective population size, census size and their ratio in wild populations are expanding, few empirical studies investigate interannual changes in these parameters. Hence, we do not know how repeatable or representative many estimates may be. Answering this question requires studies of long-term population dynamics. Here we took advantage of a rich dataset of seven brook trout (Salvelinus fontinalis) populations, 5 consecutive years and 5400 individuals genotyped at 33 microsatellites to examine variation in estimates of effective and census size and in their ratio. We first estimated the annual effective number of breeders (N ̂ b) using individuals aged 1+. We then adjusted these estimates using two life history traits, to obtainN ̂ b adj 2 and subsequently,N ̂ e adj 2 following Waples et al. (2013).N ̂ e adj 2 was estimated for the years 2014 to 2019. Census size was estimated by mark recapture using double-pass electrofishing (N ̂ c MR ) (years 2014-2018) as well as by the Close Kin Mark Recapture approach (N ̂ c CKMR ) (years 2015-2017). Within populations, annual variation inN ̂ e adj 2 (ratio of maximum to minimumN ̂ e adj 2 ) ranged from 1.6-fold to 58-fold. Over all 7 populations, the median annual variation inN ̂ e adj 2 was around 5-fold. These results reflect important interannual changes in the variance in reproductive success and more generally in population dynamics. Within populationN ̂ c MR varied between years by a (median) factor of 2.7 with a range from 2 to 4.3. Thus, estimated effective size varied nearly twice as much as did estimated census size. Our results therefore suggest that, at least in small populations like those examined in the present study, any single annual estimate ofN ̂ e adj 2 is unlikely to be representative of long-term dynamics. At least 3-4 annual estimates may be required for an estimate of contemporary effective size to be truly representative. We then comparedN ̂ c MR toN ̂ c CKMR . For five of the seven populations, the estimates of population abundance based on mark recapture (N ̂ c MR ) were indistinguishable from those based on close kin mark recapture (N ̂ c CKMR ). The two populations with discordantN ̂ c MR andN ̂ c CKMR exhibited extremely lowN ̂ e adj 2 / N ̂ c MR ratios and the largest annual variation inN ̂ e adj 2 (58-fold and 35.4-fold respectively). These results suggest that sampling effort in these two streams may have been insufficient to properly capture the genetic diversity of the entire population and that individuals sampled were not representative of the population. Our study further validates CKMR as a method for estimating abundance in wild populations and it demonstrates how knowledge of the temporal variation inN ̂ e can be used to identify potential sources of discrepancies betweenN ̂ c MR andN ̂ c CKMR .

Estimating Demographic Parameters for Bearded Seals, Erignathus barbatus, in Alaska Using Close-Kin Mark-Recapture Methods

Reliable estimates of population abundance and demographics are essential for managing harvested species. Ice-associated phocids, "ice seals," are a vital resource for subsistence-dependent coastal Native communities in western and northern Alaska, USA. In 2012, the Beringia distinct population segment of the bearded seal, Erignathus barbatus nauticus, was listed as "threatened" under the US Endangered Species Act requiring greater scrutiny for management assessments. We sought to estimate requisite population parameters from harvested seals by using close-kin mark-recapture (CKMR) methods, the first such application for marine mammals. Samples from 1758 bearded seals harvested by Bering, Chukchi, and Beaufort Sea communities during 1998-2020 were genotyped, genetically sexed, and aged by tooth annuli. After rigorous quality control, kin relationships were established for 1484 seals including two parent-offspring pairs (POPs) and 25 potential second-order kin pairs. Most of the second-order kin were half-sibling pairs (HSPs), but four were potential grandparent-grandchild pairs (GGPs). There were no full sibling pairs, suggesting a lack of mate fidelity. Mitochondrial DNA analysis identified 17 potential HSPs as paternally related, providing substantial evidence of persistent heterogeneity in reproductive success among adult males. The statistical CKMR model incorporates probabilities associated with POPs, HSPs, and GGPs and assumes known ages and a stable population. Our top model accommodates heterogeneity in adult male breeding success and yields an abundance estimate of ~409,000 with a coefficient of variation (CV) = 0.35, which is substantially greater than the "non-heterogeneity" model estimate of ~232,000 (CV = 0.21), an important difference for managing a harvested species. Using CKMR methods with harvested species provides estimates of abundance with the added opportunity to acquire information about adult survival, fecundity, and breeding success that could be applied to other species of concern, marine and terrestrial.

Genomic Data Characterize Reproductive Ecology Patterns in Michigan Invasive Red Swamp Crayfish (Procambarus clarkii)

The establishment and spread of invasive species are directly related to intersexual interactions as dispersal and reproductive success are related to distribution, effective population size, and population growth. Accordingly, populations established by r-selected species are particularly difficult to suppress or eradicate. One such species, the red swamp crayfish (Procambarus clarkii) is established globally at considerable ecological and financial costs to natural and human communities. Here, we develop a single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) loci panel for P. clarkii using restriction-associated DNA-sequencing data. We use the SNP panel to successfully genotype 1800 individuals at 930 SNPs in southeastern Michigan, USA. Genotypic data were used to reconstruct pedigrees, which enabled the characterization of P. clarkii's mating system and statistical tests for associations among environmental, demographic, and phenotypic predictors and adult reproductive success estimates. We identified juvenile cohorts using genotype-based pedigrees, body size, and sampling timing, which elucidated the breeding phenology of multiple introduced populations. We report a high prevalence of multiple paternity in each surveyed waterbody, indicating polyandry in this species. We highlight the use of newly developed rapid genomic assessment tools for monitoring population reproductive responses, effective population sizes, and dispersal during ongoing control efforts.

Age is not just a number: How incorrect ageing impacts close-kin mark-recapture estimates of population size

Population size is a key parameter for the conservation of animal species. Close-kin mark-recapture (CKMR) relies on the observed frequency and type of kinship among individuals sampled from the population to estimate population size. Knowledge of the age of the individuals, or a surrogate thereof, is essential for inference with acceptable precision. One common approach, particularly in fish studies, is to measure animal length and infer age using an assumed age-length relationship (a 'growth curve'). We used simulation to test the effect of misspecifying the length measurement error and the growth curve on population size estimation. Simulated populations represented two fictional shark species, one with a relatively simple life history and the other with a more complex life history based on the grey reef shark (Carcharhinus amblyrhynchos). We estimated sex-specific adult abundance, which we assumed to be constant in time. We observed small median biases in these estimates ranging from 1.35% to 2.79% when specifying the correct measurement error standard deviation and growth curve. CI coverage was adequate whenever the growth curve was correctly specified. Introducing error via misspecified growth curves resulted in changes in the magnitude of the estimated adult population, where underestimating age negatively biased the abundance estimates. Over- and underestimating the standard deviation of length measurement error did not introduce a bias and had negligible effect on the variance in the estimates. Our findings show that assuming an incorrect standard deviation of length measurement error has little effect on estimation, but having an accurate growth curve is crucial for CKMR whenever ageing is based on length measurements. If ageing could be biased, researchers should be cautious when interpreting CKMR results and consider the potential biases arising from inaccurate age inference.

Sources of bias in applying close-kin mark-recapture to terrestrial game species with different life histories

Close-kin mark-recapture (CKMR) is a method analogous to traditional mark-recapture but without requiring recapture of individuals. Instead, multilocus genotypes (genetic marks) are used to identify related individuals in one or more sampling occasions, which enables the opportunistic use of samples from harvested wildlife. To apply the method accurately, it is important to build appropriate CKMR models that do not violate assumptions linked to the species' and population's biology and sampling methods. In this study, we evaluated the implications of fitting overly simplistic CKMR models to populations with complex reproductive success dynamics or selective sampling. We used forward-in-time, individual-based simulations to evaluate the accuracy and precision of CKMR abundance and survival estimates in species with different longevities, mating systems, and sampling strategies. Simulated populations approximated a range of life histories among game species of North America with lethal sampling to evaluate the potential of using harvested samples to estimate population size. Our simulations show that CKMR can yield nontrivial biases in both survival and abundance estimates, unless influential life history traits and selective sampling are explicitly accounted for in the modeling framework. The number of kin pairs observed in the sample, in combination with the type of kinship used in the model (parent-offspring pairs and/or half-sibling pairs), can affect the precision and/or accuracy of the estimates. CKMR is a promising method that will likely see an increasing number of applications in the field as costs of genetic analysis continue to decline. Our work highlights the importance of applying population-specific CKMR models that consider relevant demographic parameters, individual covariates, and the protocol through which individuals were sampled.

Accounting for unobserved population dynamics and aging error in close-kin mark-recapture assessments

Obtaining robust estimates of population abundance is a central challenge hindering the conservation and management of many threatened and exploited species. Close-kin mark-recapture (CKMR) is a genetics-based approach that has strong potential to improve the monitoring of data-limited species by enabling estimates of abundance, survival, and other parameters for populations that are challenging to assess. However, CKMR models have received limited sensitivity testing under realistic population dynamics and sampling scenarios, impeding the application of the method in population monitoring programs and stock assessments. Here, we use individual-based simulation to examine how unmodeled population dynamics and aging uncertainty affect the accuracy and precision of CKMR parameter estimates under different sampling strategies. We then present adapted models that correct the biases that arise from model misspecification. Our results demonstrate that a simple base-case CKMR model produces robust estimates of population abundance with stable populations that breed annually; however, if a population trend or non-annual breeding dynamics are present, or if year-specific estimates of abundance are desired, a more complex CKMR model must be constructed. In addition, we show that CKMR can generate reliable abundance estimates for adults from a variety of sampling strategies, including juvenile-focused sampling where adults are never directly observed (and aging error is minimal). Finally, we apply a CKMR model that has been adapted for population growth and intermittent breeding to two decades of genetic data from juvenile lemon sharks (Negaprion brevirostris) in Bimini, Bahamas, to demonstrate how application of CKMR to samples drawn solely from juveniles can contribute to monitoring efforts for highly mobile populations. Overall, this study expands our understanding of the biological factors and sampling decisions that cause bias in CKMR models, identifies key areas for future inquiry, and provides recommendations that can aid biologists in planning and implementing an effective CKMR study, particularly for long-lived data-limited species.

Reliability of trans-generational genetic mark-recapture (tGMR) for enumerating Pacific salmon

As Pacific salmon (Oncorhynchus spp.) decline across much of their range, it is imperative to further develop minimally invasive tools to quantify population abundance. One such advancement, trans-generational genetic mark-recapture (tGMR), uses parentage analysis to estimate the size of wild populations. Our study examined the precision and accuracy of tGMR through a comparison to a traditional mark-recapture estimate for Chilkat River Chinook salmon (O. tshawytscha) in Southeast Alaska. We examined how adult sampling location and timing impact tGMR by comparing estimates derived using samples collected in the lower river mainstem to those using samples obtained in upriver spawning tributaries. Results indicated that tGMR estimates using a representative sample of mainstem adults were most concordant with, and 3% more precise than, the traditional mark-recapture estimate for this stock. Importantly, the timing and location of adult sampling were found to impact abundance estimates, depending on what proportion of the population dies or moves to unsampled areas between downriver and upriver sampling events. Additionally, we identified potential sources of bias in tGMR arising from violations of key assumptions using a novel individual-based modeling framework, parameterized with empirical values from the Chilkat River. Simulations demonstrated that increased reproductive success and sampling selectivity of older, larger individuals, introduced negative bias into tGMR estimates. Our individual-based model offers a customizable and accessible method to identify and quantify these biases in tGMR applications (https://github.com/swrosenbaum/tGMR_simulations). We underscore the critical role of system-specific sampling design considerations in ensuring the precision and accuracy of tGMR projects. This study validates tGMR as a potentially useful tool for improved population enumeration in semelparous species.

A decade of progress in marine evolutionary biology

This article summarizes the Evolutionary Applications Special Issue, "A decade of progress in Marine Evolutionary Biology." The globally connected ocean, from its pelagic depths to its highly varied coastlines, inspired Charles Darwin to develop the theory of evolution during the voyage of the Beagle. As technology has developed, there has been a dramatic increase in our knowledge about life on our blue planet. This Special Issue, composed of 19 original papers and seven reviews, represents a small contribution to the larger picture of recent research in evolutionary biology, and how such advancements come about through the connection of researchers, their fields, and their knowledge. The first European network for marine evolutionary biology, the Linnaeus Centre for Marine Evolutionary Biology (CeMEB), was developed to study evolutionary processes in the marine environment under global change. Though hosted by the University of Gothenburg in Sweden, the network quickly grew to encompass researchers throughout Europe and beyond. Today, more than a decade after its foundation, CeMEB's focus on the evolutionary consequences of global change is more relevant than ever, and knowledge gained from marine evolution research is urgently needed in management and conservation. This Special Issue, organized and developed through the CeMEB network, contains contributions from all over the world and provides a snapshot of the current state of the field, thus forming an important basis for future research directions.