Host use dynamics in a heterogeneous fitness landscape generates oscillations in host range and diversification

The ephemeral resource patch concept

Ephemeral resource patches (ERPs) - short lived resources including dung, carrion, temporary pools, rotting vegetation, decaying wood, and fungi - are found throughout every ecosystem. Their short-lived dynamics greatly enhance ecosystem heterogeneity and have shaped the evolutionary trajectories of a wide range of organisms - from bacteria to insects and amphibians. Despite this, there has been no attempt to distinguish ERPs clearly from other resource types, to identify their shared spatiotemporal characteristics, or to articulate their broad ecological and evolutionary influences on biotic communities. Here, we define ERPs as any distinct consumable resources which (i) are homogeneous (genetically, chemically, or structurally) relative to the surrounding matrix, (ii) host a discrete multitrophic community consisting of species that cannot replicate solely in any of the surrounding matrix, and (iii) cannot maintain a balance between depletion and renewal, which in turn, prevents multiple generations of consumers/users or reaching a community equilibrium. We outline the wide range of ERPs that fit these criteria, propose 12 spatiotemporal characteristics along which ERPs can vary, and synthesise a large body of literature that relates ERP dynamics to ecological and evolutionary theory. We draw this knowledge together and present a new unifying conceptual framework that incorporates how ERPs have shaped the adaptive trajectories of organisms, the structure of ecosystems, and how they can be integrated into biodiversity management and conservation. Future research should focus on how inter- and intra-resource variation occurs in nature - with a particular focus on resource × environment × genotype interactions. This will likely reveal novel adaptive strategies, aid the development of new eco-evolutionary theory, and greatly improve our understanding of the form and function of organisms and ecosystems.

Ecological super-spreaders drive host-range oscillations: Omicron and risk-space for emerging infectious disease

The unusual genetic diversity of the Omicron strain has led to speculation about its origin. The mathematical modelling platform developed for the Stockholm Paradigm (SP) indicates strongly that it has retro‐colonized humans from an unidentified nonhuman mammal, likely originally infected by humans. The relationship between Omicron and all other SARS‐CoV‐2 variants indicates oscillations among hosts, a core part of the SP. Such oscillations result from the emergence of novel variants following colonization of new hosts, replenishing and expanding the risk space for disease emergence. The SP predicts that pathogens colonize new hosts using pre‐existing capacities. Those events are thus predictable to a certain extent. Novel variants emerge after a colonization and are not predictable. This makes it imperative to take proactive measures for anticipating emerging infectious diseases (EID) and mitigating their impact. The SP suggests a policy protocol, DAMA, to accomplish this goal. DAMA comprises: DOCUMENT to detect pathogens before they emerge in new places or colonize new hosts; ASSESS to determine risk; MONITOR to detect changes in pathogen populations that increase the risk of outbreaks and ACT to prevent outbreaks when possible and minimize their impact when they occur.

On the macroecological significance of eco-evolutionary dynamics: the range shift-niche breadth hypothesis

Global correlations of range size and niche breadth, and their relationship to latitude, have long intrigued ecologists and biogeographers. Study of these patterns has given rise to a number of hypothesized ecological and evolutionary processes purported to shape biogeographic outcomes, including the climate variability hypothesis, oscillation hypothesis, ecological opportunity, competitive release and taxon cycles. Here, I introduce the alternative range shift-niche breadth hypothesis, which posits that broader niches and larger range sizes are jointly determined under eco-evolutionary processes unique to expanding ranges, which may or may not be adaptive, but which co-shape observed latitudinal gradients in niche breadth and range size during periods of widespread range expansion. I formulate this hypothesis in comparison against previous hypotheses, exploring how each relies on equilibrium versus non-equilibrium evolutionary processes, faces differing issues of definition and scale, and results in alternative predictions for comparative risk and resilience of global ecosystems. Such differences highlight that accurate understanding of process is critical when applying macroecological insight to biodiversity forecasting. Furthermore, past conceptual emphasis on a central role of local adaptation under equilibrium conditions may have obscured a ubiquitous role of non-equilibrium evolutionary processes for generating many important, regional and global macroecological patterns. This article is part of the theme issue 'Species' ranges in the face of changing environments (part I)'.

Food security and emerging infectious disease: risk assessment and risk management

Climate change, emerging infectious diseases (EIDs) and food security create a dangerous nexus. Habitat interfaces, assumed to be efficient buffers, are being disrupted by human activities which in turn accelerate the movement of pathogens. EIDs threaten directly and indirectly availability and access to nutritious food, affecting global security and human health. In the next 70 years, food-secure and food-insecure countries will face EIDs driving increasingly unsustainable costs of production, predicted to exceed national and global gross domestic products. Our modern challenge is to transform this business as usual and embrace an alternative vision of the biosphere formalized in the Stockholm paradigm (SP). First, a pathogen-centric focus shifts our vision of risk space, determining how pathogens circulate in realized and potential fitness space. Risk space and pathogen exchange are always heightened at habitat interfaces. Second, apply the document-assess-monitor-act (DAMA) protocol developing strategic data for EID risk, to be translated, synthesized and broadcast as actionable information. Risk management is realized through targeted interventions focused around information exchanged among a community of scientists, policy practitioners of food and public health security and local populations. Ultimately, SP and DAMA protect human rights, supporting food security, access to nutritious food, health interventions and environmental integrity.

Colonizations cause diversification of host preferences: A mechanism explaining increased generalization at range boundaries expanding under climate change

As species' poleward range limits expand under climate change, generalists are expected to be better colonists than specialists, extending their ranges faster. This effect of specialization on range shifts has been shown, but so has the reverse cause-effect: in a global meta-analysis of butterfly diets, it was range expansions themselves that caused increases in population-level diet breadth. What could drive this unexpected process? We provide a novel behavioral mechanism by showing that, in a butterfly with extensive ecotypic variation, Edith's checkerspot, diet breadths increased after colonization events as diversification of individual host preferences pulled novel hosts into population diets. Subsequently, populations that persisted reverted toward monophagy. We draw together three lines of evidence from long-term studies of 15 independently evolving populations. First, direct observations showed a significant increase in specialization across decades: in recent censuses, eight populations used fewer host genera than in the 1980s while none used more. Second, behavioral preference-testing experiments showed that extinctions and recolonizations at two sites were followed, at first by diversification of heritable preference ranks and increases in diet breadth, and subsequently by homogenization of preferences and contractions of diet breadth. Third, we found a significant negative association in the 1980s between population-level diet breadth and genetic diversity. Populations with fewer mtDNA haplotypes had broader diets, extending to 3-4 host genera, while those with higher haplotype diversity were more specialized. We infer that diet breadth had increased in younger, recently colonized populations. Preference diversification after colonization events, whether caused by (cryptic) host shifts or by release of cryptic genetic variation after population bottlenecks, provides a mechanism for known effects of range shifts on diet specialization. Our results explain how colonizations at expanding range margins have increased population-level diet breadths, and predict that increasing specialization should accompany population persistence as current range edges become range interiors.

Why are there not more herbivorous insect species?

Insect species richness is estimated to exceed three million species, of which roughly half is herbivorous. Despite the vast number of species and varied life histories, the proportion of herbivorous species among plant-consuming organisms is lower than it could be due to constraints that impose limits to their diversification. These include ecological factors, such as vague interspecific competition; anatomical and physiological limits, such as neural limits and inability of handling a wide range of plant allelochemicals; phylogenetic constraints, like niche conservatism; and most importantly, a low level of concerted genetic variation necessary to a phyletic conversion. It is suggested that diversification ultimately depends on what we call the intrinsic trend of diversification of the insect genome. In support of the above, we survey the major types of host-specificity, the mechanisms and constraints of host specialization, possible pathways of speciation, and hypotheses concerning insect diversification.

'Accidents waiting to happen'-Insights from a simple model on the emergence of infectious agents in new hosts

This study evaluates through modelling the possible individual and combined effect of three populational parameters of pathogens (reproduction rate; rate of novelty emergence; and propagule size) on the colonization of new host species-putatively the most fundamental process leading to the emergence of new infectious diseases. The results are analysed under the theoretical framework of the Stockholm Paradigm using IBM simulations to better understand the evolutionary dynamics of the pathogen population and the possible role of Ecological Fitting. The simulations suggest that all three parameters positively influence the success of colonization of new hosts by a novel parasite population, but contrary to the prevailing belief, the rate of novelty emergence (e.g. mutations) is the least important factor. Maximization of all parameters results in a synergetic facilitation of the colonization and emulates the expected scenario for pathogenic microorganisms. The simulations also provide theoretical support for the retention of the capacity of fast-evolving lineages to retro-colonize their previous host species/lineage by ecological fitting. Capacity is, thus, much larger than we can anticipate. Hence, the results support the empirical observations that opportunity of encounter (i.e. the breakdown in mechanisms for ecological isolation) is a fundamental determinant to the emergence of new associations-especially Emergent Infectious Diseases-and the dynamics of host exploration, as observed in SARS-CoV-2. Insights on the dynamics of Emergent Infectious Diseases derived from the simulations and from the Stockholm Paradigm are discussed.

Phoresy in animals: review and synthesis of a common but understudied mode of dispersal

Phoresy is a type of interaction in which one species, the phoront, uses another species, the dispersal host, for transportation to new habitats or resources. Despite being a widespread behaviour, little is known about the ecology and evolution of phoresy. Our goal is to provide a comprehensive review of phoretic dispersal in animals and to bring renewed attention to this subject. We surveyed literature published between 1900 and 2020 to understand the extent of known higher-level taxonomic diversity (phyla, classes, and orders) and functional aspects of animals that use phoretic dispersal. Species dispersing phoretically have been observed in at least 13 animal phyla, 25 classes, and 60 orders. The majority of known phoronts are arthropods (Phylum Euarthropoda) in terrestrial habitats, but phoronts also occur in freshwater and marine environments. Marine phoronts may be severely under-represented in the literature due to the relative difficulty of studying these systems. Phoronts are generally small with low mobility and use habitats or resources that are ephemeral and/or widely dispersed. Many phoronts are also parasites. In general, animals that engage in phoresy use a wide variety of morphological and behavioural traits for locating, attaching to, and detaching from dispersal hosts, but the exact mechanisms behind these activities are largely unknown. In addition to diversity, we discuss the evolution of phoresy including the long-standing idea that it can be a precursor to parasitism and other forms of symbioses. Finally, we suggest several areas of future research to improve our understanding of phoresy and its ecological and evolutionary significance.

Hiding in plain sight: an evolutionary approach to the South American Zika outbreak and its future consequences

Emerging Infectious Diseases (EID) pose a world-wide health and socio-economic threat. Accelerating climate change and globalization are exposing unforeseen ways that pathogens cope with their surroundings. The 2015 Zika virus (ZIKV) outbreak was an example of expansion into previously inaccessible fitness spaces, causing a sudden epidemic. Recent studies indicating the subsequent decrease in symptomatic cases means the virus is in remission, currently poses little threat, and therefore can be ignored. We present an evolutionary scenario derived from the Stockholm Paradigm, of oscillating phases of expansion and isolation, accompanied by changes in transmission, persistence, virulence, and pathology. Chief among these is the likelihood that asymptomatic strains are constantly transmitted sexually. This suggests that the currently quiescent virus retains capacities to reemerge abruptly and spread rapidly in an arena of changing opportunity.