On the logic of Fisherian sexual selection

Interpreting population- and family-based genome-wide association studies in the presence of confounding

A central aim of genome-wide association studies (GWASs) is to estimate direct genetic effects: the causal effects on an individual's phenotype of the alleles that they carry. However, estimates of direct effects can be subject to genetic and environmental confounding and can also absorb the "indirect" genetic effects of relatives' genotypes. Recently, an important development in controlling for these confounds has been the use of within-family GWASs, which, because of the randomness of mendelian segregation within pedigrees, are often interpreted as producing unbiased estimates of direct effects. Here, we present a general theoretical analysis of the influence of confounding in standard population-based and within-family GWASs. We show that, contrary to common interpretation, family-based estimates of direct effects can be biased by genetic confounding. In humans, such biases will often be small per-locus, but can be compounded when effect-size estimates are used in polygenic scores (PGSs). We illustrate the influence of genetic confounding on population- and family-based estimates of direct effects using models of assortative mating, population stratification, and stabilizing selection on GWAS traits. We further show how family-based estimates of indirect genetic effects, based on comparisons of parentally transmitted and untransmitted alleles, can suffer substantial genetic confounding. We conclude that, while family-based studies have placed GWAS estimation on a more rigorous footing, they carry subtle issues of interpretation that arise from confounding.

Interpreting population and family-based genome-wide association studies in the presence of confounding

A central aim of genome-wide association studies (GWASs) is to estimate direct genetic effects: the causal effects on an individual's phenotype of the alleles that they carry. However, estimates of direct effects can be subject to genetic and environmental confounding, and can also absorb the 'indirect' genetic effects of relatives' genotypes. Recently, an important development in controlling for these confounds has been the use of within-family GWASs, which, because of the randomness of Mendelian segregation within pedigrees, are often interpreted as producing unbiased estimates of direct effects. Here, we present a general theoretical analysis of the influence of confounding in standard population-based and within-family GWASs. We show that, contrary to common interpretation, family-based estimates of direct effects can be biased by genetic confounding. In humans, such biases will often be small per-locus, but can be compounded when effect size estimates are used in polygenic scores. We illustrate the influence of genetic confounding on population- and family-based estimates of direct effects using models of assortative mating, population stratification, and stabilizing selection on GWAS traits. We further show how family-based estimates of indirect genetic effects, based on comparisons of parentally transmitted and untransmitted alleles, can suffer substantial genetic confounding. In addition to known biases that can arise in family-based GWASs when interactions between family members are ignored, we show that biases can also arise from gene-by-environment (G×E) interactions when parental genotypes are not distributed identically across interacting environmental and genetic backgrounds. We conclude that, while family-based studies have placed GWAS estimation on a more rigorous footing, they carry subtle issues of interpretation that arise from confounding and interactions.

Conflict over fertilization underlies the transient evolution of reinforcement

When two species meet in secondary contact, the production of low fitness hybrids may be prevented by the adaptive evolution of increased prezygotic isolation, a process known as reinforcement. Theoretical challenges to the evolution of reinforcement are generally cast as a coordination problem, i.e., "how can statistical associations between traits and preferences be maintained in the face of recombination?" However, the evolution of reinforcement also poses a potential conflict between mates. For example, the opportunity costs to hybridization may differ between the sexes or species. This is particularly likely for reinforcement based on postmating prezygotic (PMPZ) incompatibilities, as the ability to fertilize both conspecific and heterospecific eggs is beneficial to male gametes, but heterospecific mating may incur a cost for female gametes. We develop a population genetic model of interspecific conflict over reinforcement inspired by "gametophytic factors", which act as PMPZ barriers among Zea mays subspecies. We demonstrate that this conflict results in the transient evolution of reinforcement-after females adaptively evolve to reject gametes lacking a signal common in conspecific gametes, this gamete signal adaptively introgresses into the other population. Ultimately, the male gamete signal fixes in both species, and isolation returns to pre-reinforcement levels. We interpret geographic patterns of isolation among Z. mays subspecies considering these findings and suggest when and how this conflict can be resolved. Our results suggest that sexual conflict over fertilization may pose an understudied obstacle to the evolution of reinforcement.

Assortative mating enhances postzygotic barriers to gene flow via ancestry bundling

Hybridization and subsequent genetic introgression are now known to be common features of the histories of many species, including our own. Following hybridization, selection often purges introgressed DNA genome-wide. While assortative mating can limit hybridization in the first place, it is also known to play an important role in postzygotic selection against hybrids and, thus, the purging of introgressed DNA. However, this role is usually thought of as a direct one: a tendency for mates to be conspecific reduces the sexual fitness of hybrids, reducing the transmission of introgressed ancestry. Here, we explore a second, indirect role of assortative mating as a postzygotic barrier to gene flow. Under assortative mating, parents covary in their ancestry, causing ancestry to be "bundled" in their offspring and later generations. This bundling effect increases ancestry variance in the population, enhancing the efficiency with which postzygotic selection purges introgressed DNA. Using whole-genome simulations, we show that the bundling effect can comprise a substantial portion of mate choice's overall effect as a postzygotic barrier to gene flow. We then derive a simple method for estimating the impact of the bundling effect from standard metrics of assortative mating. Applying this method to data from a diverse set of hybrid zones, we find that the bundling effect increases the purging of introgressed DNA by between 1.2-fold (in a baboon system with weak assortative mating) and 14-fold (in a swordtail system with strong assortative mating). Thus, assortative mating's bundling effect contributes substantially to the genetic isolation of species.

When Do Opposites Attract? A Model Uncovering the Evolution of Disassortative Mating

AbstractDisassortative mating is a rare form of mate preference that promotes the persistence of polymorphism. While the evolution of assortative mating and its consequences for trait variation and speciation have been extensively studied, the conditions enabling the evolution of disassortative mating are still poorly understood. Mate preferences increase the risk of missing mating opportunities, a cost that can be compensated by a greater fitness of offspring. Heterozygote advantage should therefore promote the evolution of disassortative mating, which maximizes the number of heterozygous offspring. From the analysis of a two-locus diploid model with one locus controlling the mating cue under viability selection and the other locus coding for the level of disassortative preference, we show that heterozygote advantage and negative frequency-dependent viability selection acting at the cue locus promote the evolution of disassortative preferences. We predict conditions of evolution of disassortative mating coherent with selection regimes acting on traits observed in the wild. We also show that disassortative mating generates sexual selection, which disadvantages heterozygotes at the cue locus, limiting the evolution of disassortative preferences. Altogether, our results partially explain why this behavior is rare in natural populations.