Evaluating the contributions of purifying selection and progeny-skew in dictating within-host Mycobacterium tuberculosis evolution

Ecology, global diversity and evolutionary mechanisms in the Mycobacterium tuberculosis complex

With the COVID-19 pandemic receding, tuberculosis (TB) is again the number one cause of human death to a single infectious agent. TB is caused by bacteria that belong to the Mycobacterium tuberculosis complex (MTBC). Recent advances in genome sequencing have provided new insights into the ecology and evolution of the MTBC. This includes the discovery of new phylogenetic lineages within the MTBC, a deeper understanding of the host tropism among the various animal-adapted lineages, enhanced knowledge on the evolutionary dynamics of antimicrobial resistance and transmission, as well as a better grasp of the within-host MTBC diversity. Moreover, advances in long-read sequencing are increasingly highlighting the relevance of structural genomic variation in the MTBC. These findings not only shed new light on the biology and epidemiology of TB, but also give rise to new questions and research avenues. The purpose of this Review is to summarize these new insights and discuss their implications for global TB control.

Determinants of rapid adaptation in species with large variance in offspring production

The speed of population adaptation to changing biotic and abiotic environments is determined by the interaction between genetic drift, positive selection and linkage effects. Many marine species (fish, crustaceans), invertebrates and pathogens of humans and crops, exhibit sweepstakes reproduction characterized by the production of a very large amount of offspring (fecundity phase) from which only a small fraction may survive to the next generation (viability phase). Using stochastic simulations, we investigate whether the occurrence of sweepstakes reproduction affects the efficiency of a positively selected unlinked locus, and thus, the speed of adaptation since fecundity and/or viability have distinguishable consequences on mutation rate, probability and fixation time of advantageous alleles. We observe that the mean number of mutations at the next generation is always the function of the population size, but the variance increases with stronger sweepstakes reproduction when mutations occur in the parents. On the one hand, stronger sweepstakes reproduction magnifies the effect of genetic drift thus increasing the probability of fixation of neutral allele and decreasing that of selected alleles. On the other hand, the time to fixation of advantageous (as well as neutral) alleles is shortened by stronger sweepstakes reproduction. Importantly, fecundity and viability selection exhibit different probabilities and times to fixation of advantageous alleles under intermediate and weak sweepstakes reproduction. Finally, alleles under both strong fecundity and viability selection display a synergistic efficiency of selection. We conclude that measuring and modelling accurately fecundity and/or viability selection are crucial to predict the adaptive potential of species with sweepstakes reproduction.

Epigenomic divergence correlates with sequence polymorphism in Arabidopsis paralogs

Processes affecting rates of sequence polymorphism are fundamental to the evolution of gene duplicates. The relationship between gene activity and sequence polymorphism can influence the likelihood that functionally redundant gene copies are co-maintained in stable evolutionary equilibria vs other outcomes such as neofunctionalization. Here, we investigate genic variation in epigenome-associated polymorphism rates in Arabidopsis thaliana and consider whether these affect the evolution of gene duplicates. We compared the frequency of sequence polymorphism and patterns of genetic differentiation between genes classified by exon methylation patterns: unmethylated (unM), gene-body methylated (gbM), and transposon-like methylated (teM) states, which reflect divergence in gene expression. We found that the frequency of polymorphism was higher in teM (transcriptionally repressed, tissue-specific) genes and lower in gbM (active, constitutively expressed) genes. Comparisons of gene duplicates were largely consistent with genome-wide patterns - gene copies that exhibit teM accumulate more variation, evolve faster, and are in chromatin states associated with reduced DNA repair. This relationship between expression, the epigenome, and polymorphism may lead to the breakdown of equilibrium states that would otherwise maintain genetic redundancies. Epigenome-mediated polymorphism rate variation may facilitate the evolution of novel gene functions in duplicate paralogs maintained over evolutionary time.

Developing an appropriate evolutionary baseline model for the study of SARS-CoV-2 patient samples

Over the past 3 years, Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has spread through human populations in several waves, resulting in a global health crisis. In response, genomic surveillance efforts have proliferated in the hopes of tracking and anticipating the evolution of this virus, resulting in millions of patient isolates now being available in public databases. Yet, while there is a tremendous focus on identifying newly emerging adaptive viral variants, this quantification is far from trivial. Specifically, multiple co-occurring and interacting evolutionary processes are constantly in operation and must be jointly considered and modeled in order to perform accurate inference. We here outline critical individual components of such an evolutionary baseline model-mutation rates, recombination rates, the distribution of fitness effects, infection dynamics, and compartmentalization-and describe the current state of knowledge pertaining to the related parameters of each in SARS-CoV-2. We close with a series of recommendations for future clinical sampling, model construction, and statistical analysis.

How Can We Resolve Lewontin's Paradox?

We discuss the genetic, demographic, and selective forces that are likely to be at play in restricting observed levels of DNA sequence variation in natural populations to a much smaller range of values than would be expected from the distribution of census population sizes alone-Lewontin's Paradox. While several processes that have previously been strongly emphasized must be involved, including the effects of direct selection and genetic hitchhiking, it seems unlikely that they are sufficient to explain this observation without contributions from other factors. We highlight a potentially important role for the less-appreciated contribution of population size change; specifically, the likelihood that many species and populations may be quite far from reaching the relatively high equilibrium diversity values that would be expected given their current census sizes.

The impact of frequently neglected model violations on bacterial recombination rate estimation: a case study in Mycobacterium canettii and Mycobacterium tuberculosis

Mycobacterium canettii is a causative agent of tuberculosis in humans, along with the members of the Mycobacterium tuberculosis complex. Frequently used as an outgroup to the M. tuberculosis complex in phylogenetic analyses, M. canettii is thought to offer the best proxy for the progenitor species that gave rise to the complex. Here, we leverage whole-genome sequencing data and biologically relevant population genomic models to compare the evolutionary dynamics driving variation in the recombining M. canettii with that in the nonrecombining M. tuberculosis complex, and discuss differences in observed genomic diversity in the light of expected levels of Hill-Robertson interference. In doing so, we highlight the methodological challenges of estimating recombination rates through traditional population genetic approaches using sequences called from populations of microorganisms and evaluate the likely mis-inference that arises owing to a neglect of common model violations including purifying selection, background selection, progeny skew, and population size change. In addition, we compare performance when full within-host polymorphism data are utilized, versus the more common approach of basing analyses on within-host consensus sequences.

The within-host evolution of antimicrobial resistance in Mycobacterium tuberculosis

Tuberculosis (TB) has been responsible for the greatest number of human deaths due to an infectious disease in general, and due to antimicrobial resistance (AMR) in particular. The etiological agents of human TB are a closely-related group of human-adapted bacteria that belong to the Mycobacterium tuberculosis complex (MTBC). Understanding how MTBC populations evolve within-host may allow for improved TB treatment and control strategies. In this review, we highlight recent works that have shed light on how AMR evolves in MTBC populations within individual patients. We discuss the role of heteroresistance in AMR evolution, and review the bacterial, patient and environmental factors that likely modulate the magnitude of heteroresistance within-host. We further highlight recent works on the dynamics of MTBC genetic diversity within-host, and discuss how spatial substructures in patients' lungs, spatiotemporal heterogeneity in antimicrobial concentrations and phenotypic drug tolerance likely modulates the dynamics of MTBC genetic diversity in patients during treatment. We note the general characteristics that are shared between how the MTBC and other bacterial pathogens evolve in humans, and highlight the characteristics unique to the MTBC.

Multiple Merger Genealogies in Outbreaks of Mycobacterium tuberculosis

The Kingman coalescent and its developments are often considered among the most important advances in population genetics of the last decades. Demographic inference based on coalescent theory has been used to reconstruct the population dynamics and evolutionary history of several species, including Mycobacterium tuberculosis (MTB), an important human pathogen causing tuberculosis. One key assumption of the Kingman coalescent is that the number of descendants of different individuals does not vary strongly, and violating this assumption could lead to severe biases caused by model misspecification. Individual lineages of MTB are expected to vary strongly in reproductive success because 1) MTB is potentially under constant selection due to the pressure of the host immune system and of antibiotic treatment, 2) MTB undergoes repeated population bottlenecks when it transmits from one host to the next, and 3) some hosts show much higher transmission rates compared with the average (superspreaders).

Here, we used an approximate Bayesian computation approach to test whether multiple-merger coalescents (MMC), a class of models that allow for large variation in reproductive success among lineages, are more appropriate models to study MTB populations. We considered 11 publicly available whole-genome sequence data sets sampled from local MTB populations and outbreaks and found that MMC had a better fit compared with the Kingman coalescent for 10 of the 11 data sets. These results indicate that the null model for analyzing MTB outbreaks should be reassessed and that past findings based on the Kingman coalescent need to be revisited.

The population genomics of within-host Mycobacterium tuberculosis

Recent progress in genomic sequencing from patient samples has allowed for the first detailed insight into the within-host genetic diversity of Mycobacterium tuberculosis (M.TB), revealing remarkably low levels of variation. While this has often been attributed to low mutation rates, other factors have been described, including resistance evolution (i.e., selective sweeps), widespread purifying and background selection, and, more recently, progeny skew. Here we review recent findings pertaining to the processes governing the evolutionary dynamics of M.TB, discuss their implications for improving our understanding of this important human pathogen, and make recommendations for future work. Significantly, this emerging evolutionary framework involving the joint estimation of demographic, selective, and reproductive processes is forming a new paradigm for the study of within-host pathogen evolution that will be widely applicable across organisms.