Demographic consequences of climate change and land cover help explain a history of extirpations and range contraction in a declining snake species

Navigating Storms: Examining Vultures’ Behavior in Response to Extreme Weather Events

Extreme weather events such as hurricanes and tornadoes have been found to change the spatial and temporal abundance of raptors by decreasing survival and forcing the emigration of individuals, or by increasing habitat heterogeneity and facilitating recolonization of disturbed areas. Nonetheless, little is known about how extreme weather events could affect raptors’ movements and their space use in areas disturbed by large-scale weather events. We studied how extreme weather affected the movements of black and turkey vultures (Coragyps atratus and Cathartes aura, respectively) in Mississippi, USA, facing Hurricane Zeta in November 2020, winter storm Viola in February 2021, and tornados MS-43 and MS-44 in May 2021. We GPS-tracked 28 vultures in the paths of these events. We compared movement rates, net-squared displacements, and use of forest cover, before, during, and after the events. Since storm avoidance behavior has been observed in other birds, we expected that vultures would shift their movements out of the path of these events before storms hit. Further, we forecasted that vultures would make greater use of forested areas as protection against harsh conditions such as strong winds and heavy rain. Vultures responded differently to each weather event; they shifted their movements out of the predicted path of the hurricane and tornadoes but not the snowstorm. These findings reveal that both species use avoidance behavior and adjust their navigation and hazard detection accordingly. Avoidance behavior was more pronounced in turkey vultures than in black vultures. In general, vultures did not make greater use of forest areas as we expected, but turkey vultures did select forest areas during the snowstorm. We propose that olfaction and audition may be key in vultures’ response to extreme weather events.

Genetic and demographic consequences of range contraction patterns during biological annihilation

Species range contractions both contribute to, and result from, biological annihilation, yet do not receive the same attention as extinctions. Range contractions can lead to marked impacts on populations but are usually characterized only by reduction in extent of range. For effective conservation, it is critical to recognize that not all range contractions are the same. We propose three distinct patterns of range contraction: shrinkage, amputation, and fragmentation. We tested the impact of these patterns on populations of a generalist species using forward-time simulations. All three patterns caused 86-88% reduction in population abundance and significantly increased average relatedness, with differing patterns in declines of nucleotide diversity relative to the contraction pattern. The fragmentation pattern resulted in the strongest effects on post-contraction genetic diversity and structure. Defining and quantifying range contraction patterns and their consequences for Earth's biodiversity would provide useful and necessary information to combat biological annihilation.

Multi-season climate projections forecast declines in migratory monarch butterflies

Climate change poses a unique threat to migratory species as it has the potential to alter environmental conditions at multiple points along a species' migratory route. The eastern migratory population of monarch butterflies (Danaus plexippus) has declined markedly over the last few decades, in part due to variation in breeding-season climate. Here, we combined a retrospective, annual-cycle model for the eastern monarch population with climate projections within the spring breeding grounds in eastern Texas and across the summer breeding grounds in the midwestern U.S. and southern Ontario, Canada to evaluate how monarchs are likely to respond to climate change over the next century. Our results reveal that projected changes in breeding-season climate are likely to lead to decreases in monarch abundance, with high potential for overwintering population size to fall below the historical minimum three or more times in the next two decades. Climatic changes across the expansive summer breeding grounds will also cause shifts in the distribution of monarchs, with higher projected abundances in areas that become wetter but not appreciably hotter (e.g., northern Ohio) and declines in abundance where summer temperatures are projected to increase well above those observed in the recent past (e.g., northern Minnesota). Although climate uncertainties dominate long-term population forecasts, our analyses suggest that we can improve precision of near-term forecasts by collecting targeted data to better understand relationships between breeding-season climate variables and local monarch abundance. Overall, our results highlight the importance of accounting for the impacts of climate changes throughout the full-annual cycle of migratory species.

Evaluation of the impact of extreme floods on the biodiversity of terrestrial animals

Extreme floods seriously affect the biodiversity of terrestrial animals (birds, mammals, reptiles, amphibians, and insects). The degree of impact depends on many factors, e.g., animal characteristics, natural conditions, and flood characteristics. Previous evaluation methods are not suitable for assessing the impact of floods on the biodiversity of all species in the entire submerged area, nor do they accurately reflect variability in the degree of impact. First, the influencing factors were boiled down to four: ratio of flood duration to survival time of animals in floods (D), ratio of flood depth to plant height (S), migration ability of animals (M), and temperature (T), which are represented by a coefficient I. Then, we proposed a calculation method for I based on the four factors. Third, we proposed the total and average biodiversity impact indices, namely, the TBI and ABI, respectively, indicating the overall and average impacts of floods on biodiversity in the submerged area, with the calculation method considering both the number of species and I. An extreme flood was simulated to obtain the flood parameters. In addition, we analyzed monthly changes in partial influencing factors. Finally, the impact of extreme floods on the biodiversity of terrestrial animals in the submerged area was evaluated monthly, and it was found that (1) TBI and ABI changed with space; (2) the ABI of different animals in descending order were mammals, insects, reptiles, amphibians, and birds; (3) the ABI of different land use types in descending order were cropland, orchard and shrubland, grassland, and forest and for TBI were orchard and shrubland, cropland, forest, and grassland; and (4) the TBI and ABI of different animals and land use types changed over time. The proposed method and indices are suitable for assessing the impact of floods on the biodiversity of any organism in any area.

Forecasting species range dynamics with process-explicit models: matching methods to applications

Knowing where species occur is fundamental to many ecological and environmental applications. Species distribution models (SDMs) are typically based on correlations between species occurrence data and environmental predictors, with ecological processes captured only implicitly. However, there is a growing interest in approaches that explicitly model processes such as physiology, dispersal, demography and biotic interactions. These models are believed to offer more robust predictions, particularly when extrapolating to novel conditions. Many process-explicit approaches are now available, but it is not clear how we can best draw on this expanded modelling toolbox to address ecological problems and inform management decisions. Here, we review a range of process-explicit models to determine their strengths and limitations, as well as their current use. Focusing on four common applications of SDMs - regulatory planning, extinction risk, climate refugia and invasive species - we then explore which models best meet management needs. We identify barriers to more widespread and effective use of process-explicit models and outline how these might be overcome. As well as technical and data challenges, there is a pressing need for more thorough evaluation of model predictions to guide investment in method development and ensure the promise of these new approaches is fully realised.

Climate change will decrease the range size of snake species under negligible protection in the Brazilian Atlantic Forest hotspot

Reptiles are highly susceptible to climate change, responding negatively to thermal and rainfall alterations mainly in relation to their reproductive processes. Based on that, we evaluated the effects of climate change on climatically suitable areas for the occurrence of snakes in the Atlantic Forest hotspot, considering the responses of distinct reproductive groups (oviparous and viviparous). We assessed the species richness and turnover patterns affected by climate change and projected the threat status of each snake species at the end of the century. We also evaluated the effectiveness of the protected areas in safeguarding the species by estimating the mean percentage overlap between snake species distribution and protected areas (PAs) network and by assessing whether such areas will gain or lose species under climate change. Our results showed greater species richness in the eastern-central portion of the Atlantic Forest at present. In general, we evidenced a drastic range contraction of the snake species under climate change. Temporal turnover tends to be high in the western and north-eastern edges of the biome, particularly for oviparous species. Our predictions indicate that 73.6% of oviparous species and 67.6% of viviparous species could lose at least half of their original range by 2080. We also found that existing protected areas of the Atlantic Forest Hotspot have a very limited capacity to safeguard snakes at the current time, maintaining the precarious protection in the future, with the majority of them predicted to lose species at the end of this century. Although oviparous and viviparous snakes have been designated to be dramatically impacted, our study suggests a greater fragility of the former in the face of climate change. We advocated that the creation of new protected areas and/or the redesign of the existing network to harbour regions that maximize the snake species occupancy in the face of future warming scenarios are crucial measures for the conservation of this group.

Identifying resilient Eastern Massasauga Rattlesnake (Sistrurus catenatus) peatland hummock hibernacula

At the northern limit of the Eastern Massasauga Rattlesnake’s (Sistrurus catenatus (Rafinesque, 1818)) range, individuals spend up to half the year overwintering. In hummock hibernacula found in peatlands, it is likely that subsurface temperature and water table position are contributing factors dictating habitat suitability. As a step towards assessing the vulnerability of hibernacula to anthropogenic changes, we combined subsurface temperature and water table dynamics to assess the likelihood that unflooded and unfrozen conditions were present in hummock hibernacula. Our results indicate that taller hummocks are more resilient to an advancing frost line and fluctuating water table by providing a larger area and duration of unfrozen and unflooded conditions, and a critical overwintering depth that is farther from the hummock surface. In two study sites along eastern Georgian Bay, an unflooded and unfrozen zone was present for over 90% of the overwintering period for hummocks taller than 25–27 cm. Our findings highlight the vulnerability of peatland hummocks to variability of winter weather where deep freezing and (or) water table rise may nonlinearly reduce resilience. This suggests that height is not the only component affecting the suitability of hummock hibernacula and that further research should examine the structure and spatial arrangement of hummocks within a peatland.

HexSim: a modeling environment for ecology and conservation

CONTEXT

Simulation models are increasingly used in both theoretical and applied studies to explore system responses to natural and anthropogenic forcing functions, develop defensible predictions of future conditions, challenge simplifying assumptions that facilitated past research, and to train students in scientific concepts and technology. Researcher's increased use of simulation models has created a demand for new platforms that balance performance, utility, and flexibility.

OBJECTIVES

We describe HexSim, a powerful new spatially-explicit, individual-based modeling framework that will have applications spanning diverse landscape settings, species, stressors, and disciplines (e.g. ecology, conservation, genetics, epidemiology). We begin with a model overview and follow-up with a discussion of key formative studies that influenced HexSim's development. We then describe specific model applications of relevance to readers of Landscape Ecology. Our goal is to introduce readers to this new modeling platform, and to provide examples characterizing its novelty and utility.

CONCLUSIONS

With this publication, we conclude a >10 year development effort, and assert that our HexSim model is mature, robust, extremely well tested, and ready for adoption by the research community. The HexSim model, documentation, worked examples, and other materials can be freely obtained from the website www.hexsim.net.

Climatic and geographic predictors of life history variation in Eastern Massasauga (Sistrurus catenatus): A range-wide synthesis

Elucidating how life history traits vary geographically is important to understanding variation in population dynamics. Because many aspects of ectotherm life history are climate-dependent, geographic variation in climate is expected to have a large impact on population dynamics through effects on annual survival, body size, growth rate, age at first reproduction, size-fecundity relationship, and reproductive frequency. The Eastern Massasauga (Sistrurus catenatus) is a small, imperiled North American rattlesnake with a distribution centered on the Great Lakes region, where lake effects strongly influence local conditions. To address Eastern Massasauga life history data gaps, we compiled data from 47 study sites representing 38 counties across the range. We used multimodel inference and general linear models with geographic coordinates and annual climate normals as explanatory variables to clarify patterns of variation in life history traits. We found strong evidence for geographic variation in six of nine life history variables. Adult female snout-vent length and neonate mass increased with increasing mean annual precipitation. Litter size decreased with increasing mean temperature, and the size-fecundity relationship and growth prior to first hibernation both increased with increasing latitude. The proportion of gravid females also increased with increasing latitude, but this relationship may be the result of geographically varying detection bias. Our results provide insights into ectotherm life history variation and fill critical data gaps, which will inform Eastern Massasauga conservation efforts by improving biological realism for models of population viability and climate change.

Climate-Related Local Extinctions Are Already Widespread among Plant and Animal Species

Current climate change may be a major threat to global biodiversity, but the extent of species loss will depend on the details of how species respond to changing climates. For example, if most species can undergo rapid change in their climatic niches, then extinctions may be limited. Numerous studies have now documented shifts in the geographic ranges of species that were inferred to be related to climate change, especially shifts towards higher mean elevations and latitudes. Many of these studies contain valuable data on extinctions of local populations that have not yet been thoroughly explored. Specifically, overall range shifts can include range contractions at the "warm edges" of species' ranges (i.e., lower latitudes and elevations), contractions which occur through local extinctions. Here, data on climate-related range shifts were used to test the frequency of local extinctions related to recent climate change. The results show that climate-related local extinctions have already occurred in hundreds of species, including 47% of the 976 species surveyed. This frequency of local extinctions was broadly similar across climatic zones, clades, and habitats but was significantly higher in tropical species than in temperate species (55% versus 39%), in animals than in plants (50% versus 39%), and in freshwater habitats relative to terrestrial and marine habitats (74% versus 46% versus 51%). Overall, these results suggest that local extinctions related to climate change are already widespread, even though levels of climate change so far are modest relative to those predicted in the next 100 years. These extinctions will presumably become much more prevalent as global warming increases further by roughly 2-fold to 5-fold over the coming decades.