Diverging phenological responses of Arctic seabirds to an earlier spring

Reproductive phenology is a repeatable, heritable trait linked to the timing of other life-history events in a migratory marine predator

Population-level shifts in reproductive phenology in response to environmental change are common, but whether individual-level responses are modified by demographic and genetic factors remains less well understood. We used mixed models to quantify how reproductive timing varied across 1772 female southern elephant seals (Mirounga leonina) breeding at Marion Island in the Southern Ocean (1989-2019), and to identify the factors that correlate with phenological shifts within and between individuals. We found strong support for covariation in the timing of breeding arrival dates and the timing of the preceding moult. Breeding arrival dates were more repeatable at the individual level, as compared with the population level, even after accounting for individual traits (wean date as a pup, age and breeding experience) associated with phenological variability. Mother-daughter similarities in breeding phenology were also evident, indicating that additive genetic effects may contribute to between-individual variation in breeding phenology. Over 30 years, elephant seal phenology did not change towards earlier or later dates, and we found no correlation between annual fluctuations in phenology and indices of environmental variation. Our results show how maternal genetic (or non-genetic) effects, individual traits and linkages between cyclical life-history events can drive within- and between-individual variation in reproductive phenology.

Repatriation of a historical North Atlantic right whale habitat during an era of rapid climate change

Climate change is affecting species distributions in space and time. In the Gulf of Maine, one of the fastest-warming marine regions on Earth, rapid warming has caused prey-related changes in the distribution of the critically endangered North Atlantic right whale (Eubalaena glacialis). Concurrently, right whales have returned to historically important areas such as southern New England shelf waters, an area known to have been a whaling ground. We compared aerial survey data from two time periods (2013–2015; 2017–2019) to assess trends in right whale abundance in the region during winter and spring. Using distance sampling techniques, we chose a hazard rate key function to model right whale detections and used seasonal encounter rates to estimate abundance. The mean log of abundance increased by 1.40 annually between 2013 and 2019 (p = 0.004), and the mean number of individuals detected per year increased by 2.23 annually between 2013 and 2019 (R² = 0.69, p = 0.001). These results demonstrate the current importance of this habitat and suggest that management options must continually evolve as right whales repatriate historical habitats and potentially expand to new habitats as they adapt to climate change.

Variation and correlation in the timing of breeding of North Atlantic seabirds across multiple scales

Timing of breeding, an important driver of fitness in many populations, is widely studied in the context of global change, yet despite considerable efforts to identify environmental drivers of seabird nesting phenology, for most populations we lack evidence of strong drivers. Here we adopt an alternative approach, examining the degree to which different populations positively covary in their annual phenology to infer whether phenological responses to environmental drivers are likely to be (a) shared across species at a range of spatial scales, (b) shared across populations of a species or (c) idiosyncratic to populations. We combined 51 long-term datasets on breeding phenology spanning 50 years from nine seabird species across 29 North Atlantic sites and examined the extent to which different populations share early versus late breeding seasons depending on a hierarchy of spatial scales comprising breeding site, small-scale region, large-scale region and the whole North Atlantic. In about a third of cases, we found laying dates of populations of different species sharing the same breeding site or small-scale breeding region were positively correlated, which is consistent with the hypothesis that they share phenological responses to the same environmental conditions. In comparison, we found no evidence for positive phenological covariation among populations across species aggregated at larger spatial scales. In general, we found little evidence for positive phenological covariation between populations of a single species, and in many instances the inter-year variation specific to a population was substantial, consistent with each population responding idiosyncratically to local environmental conditions. Black-legged kittiwake Rissa tridactyla was the exception, with populations exhibiting positive covariation in laying dates that decayed with the distance between breeding sites, suggesting that populations may be responding to a similar driver. Our approach sheds light on the potential factors that may drive phenology in our study species, thus furthering our understanding of the scales at which different seabirds interact with interannual variation in their environment. We also identify additional systems and phenological questions to which our inferential approach could be applied.

Sex-differences in Phenology: A Tinbergian Perspective

Shifts in the timing of cyclic seasonal life-history events are among the most commonly reported responses to climate change, with differences in response rates among interacting species leading to phenological mismatches. Within a species, however, males and females can also exhibit differential sensitivity to environmental cues and may therefore differ in their responsiveness to climate change, potentially leading to phenological mismatches between the sexes. This occurs because males differ from females in when and how energy is allocated to reproduction, resulting in marked sex-differences in life-history timing across the annual cycle. In this review, we take a Tinbergian perspective and examine sex differences in timing of vertebrates from adaptive, ontogenetic, mechanistic, and phylogenetic viewpoints with the goal of informing and motivating more integrative research on sexually dimorphic phenologies. We argue that sexual and natural selection lead to sex-differences in life-history-timing and that understanding the ecological and evolutionary drivers of these differences is critical for connecting climate-driven phenological shifts to population resilience. Ontogeny may influence how and when sex differences in life-history timing arise because the early-life environment can profoundly affect developmental trajectory, rates of reproductive maturation, and seasonal timing. The molecular mechanisms underlying these organismal traits are relevant to identifying the diversity and genetic basis of population- and species-level responses to climate change, and promisingly, the molecular basis of phenology is becoming increasingly well-understood. However, because most studies focus on a single sex, the causes of sex-differences in phenology critical to population resilience often remain unclear. New sequencing tools and analyses informed by phylogeny may help generate hypotheses about mechanism as well as insight into the general "evolvability" of sex differences across phylogenetic scales, especially as trait and genome resources grow. We recommend that greater attention be placed on determining sex-differences in timing mechanisms and monitoring climate change responses in both sexes, and we discuss how new tools may provide key insights into sex-differences in phenology from all four Tinbergian domains.

Sea ice extent and phenology influence breeding of high-Arctic seabirds: 4 decades of monitoring in Nunavut, Canada

Seabirds breeding in the high Arctic contend with variable annual sea ice conditions, with important consequences depending on a species' unique reproductive and foraging ecology. We assessed the influence of sea ice extent and phenology on seabird breeding biology using monitoring data collected for northern fulmar (Fulmarus glacialis), glaucous gull (Larus hyperboreus), black-legged kittiwake (Rissa tridactyla), and thick-billed murre (Uria lomvia) breeding at Prince Leopold Island, Nunavut, Canada over 4 decades. We expected that years of later sea ice break-up and greater ice cover around the colony would create greater challenges to foraging and could result in delayed nest initiation, decreased colony attendance, and lower nesting success, but with distinct responses from each species. We also tested for time-lagged effects of ice conditions, where sea ice in a given year could impact food availability or juvenile recruitment in later years. Ice conditions around the colony exhibited no significant overall temporal trends or changepoints over the past 50 years (1970-2021), while counts of kittiwakes and murres increased over the study period 1975-2013. No trends were evident in counts of fulmars or gulls or in egg-laying dates or nest success for any species. However, three species (all but glaucous gulls) exhibited unique responses between breeding metrics and sea ice, highlighting how breeding decisions and outcomes may differ among species under the same environmental conditions in a given year. Time-lagged effects were only detected for kittiwake nest counts, where the date of spring ice break-up around the colony was negatively associated with counts at a 5-year lag. Greater distances to open water were associated with lower colony attendance by fulmars and later nest initiation by kittiwakes and murres. Our analyses provide additional insights to effects of sea ice on high-Arctic seabird breeding ecology, which will be useful in predicting and planning for the complex effects of a changing climate and changing human pressures on this high-latitude ecosystem and for the management of high-Arctic marine-protected areas.

Migratory vertebrates shift migration timing and distributions in a warming Arctic

Climate warming in the Arctic has led to warmer and earlier springs, and as a result, many food resources for migratory animals become available earlier in the season, as well as become distributed further northwards. To optimally profit from these resources, migratory animals are expected to arrive earlier in the Arctic, as well as shift their own spatial distributions northwards. Here, we review literature to assess whether Arctic migratory birds and mammals already show shifts in migration timing or distribution in response to the warming climate. Distribution shifts were most prominent in marine mammals, as expected from observed northward shifts of their resources. At least for many bird species, the ability to shift distributions is likely constrained by available habitat further north. Shifts in timing have been shown in many species of terrestrial birds and ungulates, as well as for polar bears. Within species, we found strong variation in shifts in timing and distributions between populations. Ou r review thus shows that many migratory animals display shifts in migration timing and spatial distribution in reaction to a warming Arctic. Importantly, we identify large knowledge gaps especially concerning distribution shifts and timing of autumn migration, especially for marine mammals. Our understanding of how migratory animals respond to climate change appears to be mostly limited by the lack of long-term monitoring studies.

Climate change impacts on seabirds and marine mammals: The importance of study duration, thermal tolerance and generation time

Understanding climate change impacts on top predators is fundamental to marine biodiversity conservation, due to their increasingly threatened populations and their importance in marine ecosystems. We conducted a systematic review of the effects of climate change (prolonged, directional change) and climate variability on seabirds and marine mammals. We extracted data from 484 studies (4808 published studies were reviewed), comprising 2215 observations on demography, phenology, distribution, diet, behaviour, body condition and physiology. The likelihood of concluding that climate change had an impact increased with study duration. However, the temporal thresholds for the effects of climate change to be discernibly varied from 10 to 29 years depending on the species, the biological response and the oceanic study region. Species with narrow thermal ranges and relatively long generation times were more often reported to be affected by climate change. This provides an important framework for future assessments, with guidance on response- and region-specific temporal dimensions that need to be considered when reporting effects of climate change. Finally, we found that tropical regions and non-breeding life stages were poorly covered in the literature, a concern that should be addressed to enable a better understanding of the vulnerability of marine predators to climate change.

No evidence for fitness signatures consistent with increasing trophic mismatch over 30 years in a population of European shag Phalacrocorax aristotelis

As temperatures rise, timing of reproduction is changing at different rates across trophic levels, potentially resulting in asynchrony between consumers and their resources. The match-mismatch hypothesis (MMH) suggests that trophic asynchrony will have negative impacts on average productivity of consumers. It is also thought to lead to selection on timing of breeding, as the most asynchronous individuals will show the greatest reductions in fitness. Using a 30-year individual-level dataset of breeding phenology and success from a population of European shags on the Isle of May, Scotland, we tested a series of predictions consistent with the hypothesis that fitness impacts of trophic asynchrony are increasing. These predictions quantified changes in average annual breeding success and strength of selection on timing of breeding, over time and in relation to rising sea surface temperature (SST) and diet composition. Annual average (population) breeding success was negatively correlated with average lay date yet showed no trend over time, or in relation to increasing SST or the proportion of principal prey in the diet, as would be expected if trophic mismatch was increasing. At the individual level, we found evidence for stabilising selection and directional selection for earlier breeding, although the earliest birds were not the most productive. However, selection for earlier laying did not strengthen over time, or in relation to SST or slope of the seasonal shift in diet from principal to secondary prey. We found that the optimum lay date advanced by almost 4 weeks during the study, and that the population mean lay date tracked this shift. Our results indicate that average performance correlates with absolute timing of breeding of the population, and there is selection for earlier laying at the individual level. However, we found no fitness signatures of a change in the impact of climate-induced trophic mismatch, and evidence that shags are tracking long-term shifts in optimum timing. This suggests that if asynchrony is present in this system, breeding success is not impacted. Our approach highlights the advantages of examining variation at both population and individual levels when assessing evidence for fitness impacts of trophic asynchrony.

Seasonal variation of mercury contamination in Arctic seabirds: A pan-Arctic assessment

Mercury (Hg) is a natural trace element found in high concentrations in top predators, including Arctic seabirds. Most current knowledge about Hg concentrations in Arctic seabirds relates to exposure during the summer breeding period when researchers can easily access seabirds at colonies. However, the few studies focused on winter have shown higher Hg concentrations during the non-breeding period than breeding period in several tissues. Hence, improving knowledge about Hg exposure during the non-breeding period is crucial to understanding the threats and risks encountered by these species year-round. We used feathers of nine migratory alcid species occurring at high latitudes to study bird Hg exposure during both the breeding and non-breeding periods. Overall, Hg concentrations during the non-breeding period were ~3 times higher than during the breeding period. In addition, spatial differences were apparent within and between the Atlantic and Pacific regions. While Hg concentrations during the non-breeding period were ~9 times and ~3 times higher than during the breeding period for the West and East Atlantic respectively, Hg concentrations in the Pacific during the non-breeding period were only ~1.7 times higher than during the breeding period. In addition, individual Hg concentrations during the non-breeding period for most of the seabird colonies were above 5 μg g^-1 dry weight (dw), which is considered to be the threshold at which deleterious effects are observed, suggesting that some breeding populations might be vulnerable to non-breeding Hg exposure. Since wintering area locations, and migration routes may influence seasonal Hg concentrations, it is crucial to improve our knowledge about spatial ecotoxicology to fully understand the risks associated with Hg contamination in Arctic seabirds.

Shifts in timing and duration of breeding for 73 boreal bird species over four decades

The changing climate is causing shifts in the timing of species activity. We use data on over 820,000 nesting records to quantify changes in the beginning, end, and duration of breeding among boreal birds. In addition to a general advance of breeding, we find an overall contraction of the breeding period. This pattern was most common among resident and short-distance migrating species. Overall, we detect a shift in the community-level distribution of bird reproduction, involving the start and end of reproduction and how concentrated the breeding period is. From a methodological perspective, our study illustrates that a focus on quantifying phenological advances alone may mask important patterns of phenology change across the season.

Breeding timed to match optimal resource abundance is vital for the successful reproduction of species, and breeding is therefore sensitive to environmental cues. As the timing of breeding shifts with a changing climate, this may not only affect the onset of breeding but also its termination, and thus the length of the breeding period. We use an extensive dataset of over 820K nesting records of 73 bird species across the boreal region in Finland to probe for changes in the beginning, end, and duration of the breeding period over four decades (1975 to 2017). We uncover a general advance of breeding with a strong phylogenetic signal but no systematic variation over space. Additionally, 31% of species contracted their breeding period in at least one bioclimatic zone, as the end of the breeding period advanced more than the beginning. We did not detect a statistical difference in phenological responses of species with combinations of different migratory strategy or number of broods. Nonetheless, we find systematic differences in species responses, as the contraction in the breeding period was found almost exclusively in resident and short-distance migrating species, which generally breed early in the season. Overall, changes in the timing and duration of reproduction may potentially lead to more broods co-occurring in the early breeding season—a critical time for species’ reproductive success. Our findings highlight the importance of quantifying phenological change across species and over the entire season to reveal shifts in the community-level distribution of bird reproduction.

Earlier colony arrival but no trend in hatching timing in two congeneric seabirds (Uria spp.) across the North Atlantic

A global analysis recently showed that seabird breeding phenology (as the timing of egg-laying and hatching) does not, on average, respond to temperature changes or advance with time (Keogan et al. 2018 Nat. Clim. Change 8, 313-318). This group, the most threatened of all birds, is therefore prone to spatio-temporal mismatches with their food resources. Yet, other aspects of the breeding phenology may also have a marked influence on breeding success, such as the arrival date of adults at the breeding site following winter migration. Here, we used a large tracking dataset of two congeneric seabirds breeding in 14 colonies across 18° latitudes, to show that arrival date at the colony was highly variable between colonies and species (ranging 80 days) and advanced 1.4 days/year while timing of egg-laying remained unchanged, resulting in an increasing pre-laying duration between 2009 and 2018. Thus, we demonstrate that potentially not all components of seabird breeding phenology are insensitive to changing environmental conditions.