Emergency surgery and American Society of Anesthesiologists physical status score are the most influential risk factors of death in nonagenarian surgical patients

First do no harm: Predicting futility of intervention in geriatric emergency general surgery

BACKGROUND

Emergent surgical conditions are common in geriatric patients, often necessitating major operative procedures on frail patients. Understanding risk profiles is crucial for decision-making and establishing goals of care.

METHODS

We queried NSQIP 2015-2019 for patients ≥65 years undergoing open abdominal surgery for emergency general surgery conditions. Logistic regression was used to identify 30-day mortality predictors.

RESULTS

Of 41,029 patients, 5589 (13.6 ​%) died within 30 days of admission. The highest predictors of mortality were ASA status 5 (aOR 9.7, 95 ​% CI,3.5-26.8, p ​< ​0.001), septic shock (aOR 4.9, 95 ​% CI,4.5-5.4, p ​< ​0.001), and dialysis (aOR 2.1, 95 ​% CI,1.8-2.4, p ​< ​0.001). Without risk factors, mortality rates were 11.9 ​% after colectomy and 10.2 ​% after small bowel resection. Patients with all three risk factors had a mortality rate of 79.4 ​% and 100 ​% following colectomy and small bowel resection, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

In older adults undergoing emergent open abdominal surgery, septic shock, ASA status, and dialysis were strongly associated with futility of surgical intervention. These findings can inform goals of care and informed decision-making.

Colonoscopy in the nonagenarian population

BACKGROUND

With increasing life expectancy, there is an increasing proportion of nonagenarians undergoing both elective and emergency surgical procedures. The decision as to whom will benefit from surgical procedures is however difficult to ascertain and still remains a challenge to clinicians. This study is aimed to evaluate the clinical outcomes of colonoscopy in the nonagenarian population, and to determine if the outcomes are acceptable for us to continue to offer such interventions.

METHODS

Retrospective study of patients of Dr. G.R (Gastroenterologist) and Dr. W.B (Colorectal Surgeon) between 1 January 2018 and 31 November 2022. All patients who were ≥90 years old and had a colonoscopy was included in the study. Exclusion criteria were patients who were less than 90 years old, had a flexible sigmoidoscopy or colonoscopy as part of their surgical procedure.

PRIMARY OUTCOME MEASURES

post-colonoscopy complications and length of stay.

SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES

reasons for colonoscopy, significant colonoscopy findings, 30-day morbidity and mortality.

RESULTS

Sixty patients were included in the study. Median age was 91 (90-100) years old. 33.3% of the patients were males. Seventy percent of the patients were ASA 3. Median length of hospital stay was 1 day. 11.7% of patients were found to have colorectal malignancy. There were no complications after the colonoscopy. There were no 30-day re-admission, morbidity or mortality.

CONCLUSION

Colonoscopy can be performed safely in carefully selected nonagenarian patients with acceptable low complication rates.

Incidence and predictors of perioperative mortality in a low-resource country, Ethiopia: a prospective follow-up study

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to assess the incidence and identify predictors of perioperative mortality among the adult age group at Tibebe Ghion Specialised Hospital.

DESIGN

A single-centre prospective follow-up study.

SETTING

A tertiary hospital in North West Ethiopia.

PARTICIPANTS

We enrolled 2530 participants who underwent surgery in the current study. All adults aged 18 and above were included except those with no telephone.

PRIMARY OUTCOME MEASURES

The primary outcome was time to death measured in days from immediate postoperative time up to the 28th day following surgery.

RESULT

A total of 2530 surgical cases were followed for 67 145 person-days. There were 92 deaths, with an incidence rate of 1.37 (95% CI 1.11 to 1.68) deaths per 1000 person-day observations. Regional anaesthesia was significantly associated with lower postoperative mortality (adjusted hazard ratio (AHR) 0.18, 95% CI 0.05 to 0.62). Patients aged ≥65 years (AHR 3.04, 95% CI 1.65 to 5.75), American Society of Anesthesiologist (ASA) physical status III (AHR 2.41, 95% CI 1.1.13 to 5.16) and IV (AHR 2.74, 95% CI 1.08 to 6.92), emergency surgery (AHR 1.85, 95% CI 1.02 to 3.36) and preoperative oxygen saturation <95% (AHR 3.14, 95% CI 1.85 to 5.33) were significantly associated with a higher risk of postoperative mortality.

CONCLUSION

The postoperative mortality rate at Tibebe Ghion Specialised Hospital was high. Age ≥65, ASA physical status III and IV, emergency surgery, and preoperative oxygen saturation <95% were significant predictors of postoperative mortality. Patients with the identified predictors should be offered targeted treatment.

Risk factors of serious postoperative outcomes in patients aged ≥90 years undergoing surgical intervention

Objective

We aimed to identify preoperative and intraoperative factors associated with serious postoperative outcomes, which may help patients and clinicians make better-informed decisions.

Methods

We conducted a retrospective study including all patients aged ≥90 years who underwent surgery between January 1, 2011, and January 1, 2021, at Chongqing University Central Hospital. We assessed 30 pre- and intraoperative demographic and clinical variables. Logistic regression was used to identify the independent risk factors for serious postoperative outcomes in patients aged ≥90 years.

Results

A total of 428 patients were included in our analysis. The mean age was 92.6 years (SD ± 2.6). There were 240 (56.1%) females and 188 (43.9%) males. The most common comorbidities were hypertension (44.9%) and arrhythmias (34.8%). The 30-day hospital mortality was 5.6%, and severe morbidity was 33.2%. Based on the multivariate logistic regression classification analysis of the American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA)≥ Ⅳ [odds ratio (OR), 5.39, 95% confidence interval (CI), 2.06-14.16, P = .001], emergency surgery (OR, 5.02, 95% CI, 2.85-15.98, P = .001) and chronic heart failure (OR, 6.11, 95% CI, 1.93-13.06, P = .001) were identified as independent risk factors for 30-day hospital mortality, and ASA≥ Ⅳ (OR, 4.56, 95%CI, 2.56-8.15, P < .001), Barthel index (BI) < 35 (OR, 2.28, 95%CI, 1.30-3.98, P = .001), chronic heart failure (OR, 3.67, 95%CI, 1.62-8.31, P = .002), chronic kidney disease (OR, 4.24, 95%CI, 1.99-9.05, P < .001), general anesthesia (OR, 3.31, 95%CI, 1.91-5.76, P < .001), emergency surgery (OR, 3.72, 95%CI, 1.98-6.99, P < .001), and major surgery (OR, 3.44, 95%CI, 1.90-6.22, P < .001) were identified as independent risk factors for serious postoperative complications.

Conclusions

Patients aged ≥90 years with ASA≥ Ⅳ, BI < 35, combined with chronic heart failure or chronic kidney disease, undergoing emergency surgery, major surgery or general anesthesia have a higher risk of serious postoperative outcomes. Identifying these risk factors in an early stage may contribute to our clinical decision-making and improve the quality of treatments.

The Evolution, Current Value, and Future of the American Society of Anesthesiologists Physical Status Classification System

The American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) Physical Status classification system celebrates its 80th anniversary in 2021. Its simplicity represents its greatest strength as well as a limitation in a world of comprehensive multisystem tools. It was developed for statistical purposes and not as a surgical risk predictor. However, since it correlates well with multiple outcomes, it is widely used-appropriately or not-for risk prediction and many other purposes. It is timely to review the history and development of the system. The authors describe the controversies surrounding the ASA Physical Status classification, including the problems of interrater reliability and its limitations as a risk predictor. Last, the authors reflect on the current status and potential future of the ASA Physical Status system.

Association between age and short-term outcomes of gastroenterological surgeries in older patients: an analysis using the National Clinical Database in Japan

PURPOSE

The association between advanced age and postoperative morbidity and mortality after major gastroenterological surgeries remains unclear. This study aimed to assess the association between old age and the short-term postoperative outcomes of gastroenterological surgeries.

METHODS

We evaluated 327,642 patients who underwent any of the seven major gastroenterological surgeries-esophagectomy, total gastrectomy, distal gastrectomy, right hemicolectomy, low anterior resection, hepatectomy, and pancreatoduodenectomy-and were registered with the Japanese national surgical registry between January 2011 and December 2013. Perioperative characteristics, frequency/nature of postoperative morbidities, and postoperative mortality were compared according to age at the time of surgery.

RESULTS

Overall, 18% (59,182/327,642) of the entire cohort were aged ≥ 80 years. The overall mortality rates in the entire cohort and in those aged ≥ 80 years were 1.7% and 3.3%, respectively. The postoperative mortality increased with increasing age for all procedures, with the trend persisting even after adjusting for various confounding factors. The incidence of postoperative pneumonia increased with increasing age, and with all procedures, except esophagectomy, subjects aged ≥ 80 years had a markedly higher risk of developing postoperative pneumonia than those aged < 60 years.

CONCLUSION

Advanced age is associated with significantly worse short-term outcomes in older patients undergoing gastroenterological surgeries. However, we could not identify any distinct cutoff age beyond which major gastroenterological surgery could be considered as being contraindicated. The mortality risk should be carefully considered before recommending major gastroenterological surgeries for older patients.

Short- and long-term survival after curative resection for colorectal cancer in nonagenarian patients

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVE

With increased life expectancy, the incidence of colorectal cancer in oldest-old patients has been rising. Advanced age is a risk factor for adverse outcomes after surgery. This study aimed to evaluate the short- and long-term outcomes of curative resection for colorectal cancer in nonagenarians.

METHODS

Patients who had undergone curative resection for colorectal cancer (CRC) at Stage I to III from January 2010 to December 2019 were included. Cases of emergent surgery were excluded. The clinical characteristics were documented retrospectively, and factors affecting the long-term outcome were analyzed using multivariate analysis.

RESULTS

Fifty patients met the selection criteria. Most of them were women (58.0%), and the median age was 92 years. Among these patients, 29 (58.0%) had a poor performance status (ASA-PS≥3). Laparoscopic surgery was performed in 42.0% of the patients, and 50% of the patients had postoperative complications classified as Clavien-Dindo grade 2 or severer, including 3 patients (6.0%) with grade 3 disease. No postoperative mortality occurred. The 30-day, 180-day, 1-year, 3-year and 5-year survival rates were 100%, 80.4%, 71.0%, 46.3%, and 33.8%, respectively. Multivariate analysis showed that a preoperative poor performance status (ASA-PS≥3) (HR: 3.067; 95% CI: 1.220-7.709; p = 0.017) was an independent prognostic factor for OS.

CONCLUSION

Curative elective resections for CRC in nonagenarians were performed safely without postoperative mortality. The preoperative performance status was significantly associated with OS after curative elective resection of colorectal cancer in nonagenarians. Our results suggest that excellent long-term outcomes can be achieved in a selected group with a good performance status.

Clinical characteristics and management of acute cholecystitis after cardiovascular surgery

BACKGROUND

Acute cholecystitis (AC) is a severe complication after cardiovascular surgery (CS). The purpose of this study was to delineate the clinical picture of AC after CS to propose an optimal treatment strategy.

METHODS

We retrospectively reviewed the records of 88 patients who underwent cholecystectomy for grade II or III AC between 2008 and 2019 (AC after CS: Group CS, n = 37; AC without CS: Group non-CS, n = 51).

RESULTS

The proportion of grade III AC in Group CS was significantly higher than that in Group non-CS (73% vs 41%, P = .005). Furthermore, the incidences of acalculous (81% vs 39%) and gangrenous (86% vs 59%) AC were significantly higher in Group CS (P < .05 for both). In Group CS, 11 patients had had percutaneous drainage preceding surgery, for whom cholecystectomy within 3 days was eventually necessary because their general condition was exacerbated. The incidence of a positive culture from the gallbladder bile and blood samples of Group CS were significantly higher (P < .05 for both); multidrug-resistant bacteria were detected at an especially high rate. However, the morbidity rate was comparable, and zero mortality was achieved in both groups.

CONCLUSIONS

Timely surgical intervention without hesitation is recommended for AC after CS.

No news is good news? Three-year postdischarge mortality of octogenarian and nonagenarian patients following emergency general surgery

BACKGROUND

Outcome data on the very elderly patients undergoing emergency general surgery (EGS) are sparse. We sought to examine short- and long-term mortality in the 80 plus years population following EGS.

METHODS

Using our institutional 2008-2018 EGS Database, all the 80 plus years patients undergoing EGS were identified. The data were linked to the Social Security Death Index to determine cumulative mortality rates up to 3 years after discharge. Univariate and multivariable logistic regression analyses were used to determine predictors of in-hospital and 1-year cumulative mortality.

RESULTS

A total of 385 patients were included with a mean age of 84 years; 54% were female. The two most common comorbidities were hypertension (76.1%) and cardiovascular disease (40.5%). The most common procedures performed were colectomy (20.0%), small bowel resection (18.2%), and exploratory laparotomy for other procedures (15.3%; e.g., internal hernia, perforated peptic ulcer). The overall in-hospital mortality was 18.7%. Cumulative mortality rates at 1, 2, and 3 years after discharge were 34.3%, 40.5%, and 43.4%, respectively. The EGS procedure associated with the highest 1-year mortality was colectomy (49.4%). Although hypertension, renal failure, hypoalbuminemia, hyperbilirubinemia, and elevated liver enzymes predicted in-hospital mortality, the only independent predictors of cumulative 1-year mortality were hypoalbuminemia (odds ratio, 2.17; 95% confidence interval, 1.10-4.27; p = 0.025) and elevated serum glutamic pyruvic transaminase (SGOT) level (odds ratio, 2.56; 95% confidence interval, 1.09-4.70; p = 0.029) at initial presentation. Patients with both factors had a cumulative 1-year mortality rate of 75.0%.

CONCLUSION

More than half of the very elderly patients undergoing major EGS were still alive at 3 years postdischarge. The combination of hypoalbuminemia and elevated liver enzymes predicted the highest 1-year mortality. Such information can prove useful for patient and family counseling preoperatively.

LEVEL OF EVIDENCE

Prognostic, Level III.

Colorectal cancer surgery in selected nonagenarians is relatively safe and it is associated with a good long-term survival: an observational study

Background

Advanced age is a risk factor for colorectal cancer, and very elderly patients often need to be surgically treated. This study aimed to analyze the outcomes of a cohort of nonagenarian patients operated on for colorectal cancer.

Methods

Observational study conducted on a cohort of 40 nonagenarian patients, who were treated surgically for colorectal cancer between 2000 and 2018 in our institution. Clinical data, ASA score, Charlson Comorbidity Index, Surgical Mortality Probability Model, tumor characteristics, and nature and technical features of the surgical procedure, were recorded. The Comprehensive Complication Index (CCI) and survival time after the procedure were recorded as outcome variables. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed in order to define risk factors for postoperative complications and long-term survival.

Results

Out of the 40 patients, 13 (32.5%) were men, 27 (67.5%) women, and mean age 91.6 years (SD ± 1.5). In 24 patients (60%), surgery was elective, and in 16 patients (40%), surgery was emergent. Curative surgery with intestinal resection was performed in 34 patients (85%). In 22 patients (55%), intestinal continuity was restored by performing an anastomosis. The median CCI was 22.6 (IRQ 0.0–42.6). Operative mortality was 10% (4 patients). Cumulative survival at 1, 3, and 5 years was 70%, 47%, and 29%, respectively. In multivariate analysis, only the need for transfusion remained as an independent prognostic factor for complications (p = 0.021) and TNM tumor stage as a significant predictor of survival (HR 3.0, CI95% 1.3–7.2).

Conclusions

Colorectal cancer surgery is relatively safe in selected nonagenarian patients and may achieve long-term survival.

Usefulness of pre- and intraoperative risk scores in nonagenarian surgical patients

PURPOSE

Preoperative assessment at extreme ages would identify patients at a high risk of developing postoperative complications. The objective of this study was to compare the usefulness of different risk scales in a series of nonagenarian surgical patients.

METHODS

A total of 244 surgical nonagenarians, 148 women (60.7%), median age 91 years (IQR: 90-93), were analysed. The following scales were evaluated: preoperative status (ASA-PS, Charlson Comorbidity Index, Lee Index, Reiss Index, and surgical mortality probability model-S-MPM); intraoperative status (Surgical Apgar Score and SASA score), and, as output variables, surgical outcomes (morbidity measured by the Comprehensive Complication Index-CCI, and death). Univariate analysis and receiver operating characteristic curves (ROC) were performed. Area under ROC curves (AUROC) were evaluated to define the best predictors of poor outcomes.

RESULTS

Operative mortality was 27.0%, and 73.4% presented some type of postoperative complication. Operative mortality was associated with the ASA-PS score (p < 0.001), Reiss Index (p < 0.001), Lee Index (p = 0.010), S-MPM (p < 0.001), Surgical Apgar Score (p < 0.001), SASA score (p < 0.001), and emergency surgery (p < 0.001). Postoperative complications were related to the ASA-PS score (p = 0.001), Reiss Index (p < 0.001), Lee Index (p < 0.001), S-MPM (p < 0.001), Surgical Apgar Score (p < 0.001) and SASA score (p < 0.001). The best predictors of operative mortality and complications were the SASA and Surgical Apgar Score (AUROCs > 0.88).

CONCLUSION

As in the general population, the Surgical Apgar Score and SASA score are the best predictors of operative mortality and morbidity in nonagenarian patients. These risk scales should be considered in the perioperative management of these patients.