No change in viral set point or CD4 cell decline among antiretroviral treatment-naïve, HIV-1-infected individuals enrolled in the Danish HIV Cohort Study in 1995-2010

The impact of antiretroviral therapy on population-level virulence evolution of HIV-1

In HIV-infected patients, an individual's set point viral load (SPVL) strongly predicts disease progression. Some think that SPVL is evolving, indicating that the virulence of the virus may be changing, but the data are not consistent. In addition, the widespread use of antiretroviral therapy (ART) has the potential to drive virulence evolution. We develop a simple deterministic model designed to answer the following questions: what are the expected patterns of virulence change in the initial decades of an epidemic? Could administration of ART drive changes in virulence evolution and, what is the potential size and direction of this effect? We find that even without ART we would not expect monotonic changes in average virulence. Transient decreases in virulence following the peak of an epidemic are not necessarily indicative of eventual evolution to avirulence. In the short term, we would expect widespread ART to cause limited downward pressure on virulence. In the long term, the direction of the effect is determined by a threshold condition, which we define. We conclude that, given the surpassing benefits of ART to the individual and in reducing onward transmission, virulence evolution considerations need have little bearing on how we treat.

Associations of common variants in the BST2 region with HIV-1 acquisition in African American and European American people who inject drugs

OBJECTIVE

The bone marrow stromal cell antigen 2 (BST2) gene encodes a host restriction factor that acts as an innate immune sensor of HIV-1 exposure and suppresses release of HIV-1 particles. We aimed to identify associations of variants in the BST2 gene region with HIV-1 acquisition and disease progression.

DESIGN/METHODS

Using HIV+ cases and HIV- controls from the Urban Health Study (n=3136 African Americans and European Americans who inject drugs), we tested 470 variants in BST2 and its flanking regions for association with HIV-1 acquisition and log-transformed viral load.

RESULTS

We found that the single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) rs113189798 surpassed the P value threshold corrected for multiple testing. The rs113189798-G allele (frequency=16% in African Americans, 4% in European Americans) was associated with increased HIV-1 acquisition risk (meta-analysis P=1.43 × 10): odds ratio (95% confidence interval) of 1.22 (1.01-1.49) in African Americans and 2.17 (1.43-3.33) in European Americans. We also found that the previously reported rs12609479-A allele (frequency=35% in African Americans, 81% in European Americans) was nominally associated with decreased risk of acquiring HIV-1 in our study (meta-analysis P=0.036). Rs12609479-A is predicted to increase BST2 expression and thereby decrease risk of acquiring HIV-1. Rs113189798 and rs12609479 were only weakly correlated [square of the correlation coefficient (r)=0.2-0.4] and represented distinct association signals. None of our tested variants were significantly associated with log-transformed viral load among the HIV-infected cases.

CONCLUSION

Our findings support BST2 as a genetic susceptibility factor for HIV-1 acquisition: identifying a novel SNP association for rs13189798 and linking the previously reported regulatory SNP rs12609479 to HIV-1 acquisition.

Risk of cancer among HIV-infected individuals compared to the background population: impact of smoking and HIV

BACKGROUND

The relative impact of immune deficiency and lifestyle-related factors on risk of cancer in the HIV-infected population is controversial. We aimed to estimate the population-attributable fractions (PAFs) associated with smoking, being HIV-infected and with immune deficiency.

METHODS

In a Danish, nationwide, population-based cohort study (1995-2011), incidences of cancer were compared between an HIV-infected cohort and a population-based matched cohort in analyses stratified on cancer category, smoking status and for HIV patients: low CD4 cell count.

RESULTS

We included 3503 HIV patients [baseline CD4+ 450 cells/μl (inter-quartile range 310-630)] and 12,979 population controls. Smoking-related and virological cancers accounted for 23 and 43% of cancers in the HIV-infected population. The risk of these cancers were higher among HIV patients compared to controls [incidence rate ratio (IRR) 2.8, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.6-4.9; and IRR 11.5, 95% CI 6.5-20.5], whereas the risk of other cancers did not differ (IRR 1.0, 95% CI 0.7-1.3). Non-smoking HIV patients did not have increased risk of non-virological cancers compared to non-smoking controls (IRR 1.2, 95% CI 0.7-2.1). The PAFs of cancer associated with smoking and with being HIV-infected were 27 and 49%, respectively. For cancers not strongly related to smoking or viral infections, the PAFs associated with being HIV-infected and with immune deficiency were 0%.

CONCLUSION

The risk of cancer is increased in HIV patients compared to the background population. In absence of smoking, the increase in risk is confined to cancers related to viral infections, whereas the risk of other cancers is not elevated and does not seem to be associated with immune deficiency.