Development of a multivariate prediction model for nocturia, based on urinary tract etiologies

Assessment of the Most Impactful Combination of Factors Associated with Nocturia and to Define Nocturnal Polyuria by Multivariate Modelling

BACKGROUND

Nocturia is common and associated with multiple disease states. Many potential mechanisms have been proposed for nocturia, which also remains challenging to manage.

PURPOSE

To use multivariate analysis to determine which combinations of factors can accurately discriminate clinically significant nocturia in patients to facilitate clinical management and treatment decisions.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

Data analysis was based on frequency volume charts from three randomized controlled trials. There were 1479 patients included, of which 215 patients had no/mild nocturia and 1264 had clinically significant nocturia with at least two voids per night. Factors studied that may influence nocturia were demographics, sleep duration, functional bladder capacity, 24 h urine volume and literature-suggested definitions of nocturnal polyuria. We used univariate analysis and cross-validated multivariate modelling to assess association between factors and nocturia status, redundancy between factors and whether the combined use of factors could explain patients' nocturia status.

RESULTS

The multivariate analyses showed that the most useful definitions of nocturia are 'Nocturia Index' (NI) and 'Nocturnal Urine Production per hour' (NUPh) in combination with functional bladder capacity and sleep duration. Published definitions providing binary nocturnal polyuria outcomes had lower performance than continuous indices. These analyses also showed that NI was not specific to nocturnal polyuria as it also captured nocturia due to low functional bladder capacity. By contrast, NUPh was demonstrated to be specific to nocturnal polyuria.

CONCLUSION

NUPh has previously been shown among elderly males to be essential in nocturia and a very valid measure of nocturnal polyuria. However, the current, large and independent dataset now confirms that it can be applied in an adult population with a complaint of nocturia covering both males and females.

Development of a multivariate prediction model for nocturia, based on urinary tract etiologies

PURPOSE

The main objective of our study was to determine which combination of modifiable and non-modifiable parameters that could discriminate patients with nocturia from those without nocturia. This was a post-hoc analysis of 3 prospective, observational studies conducted in Ghent University. Participants completed frequency volume chart (FVC) to compare characteristics between patients with and without nocturia.

METHOD

This was a post hoc analysis of three prospective, observational studies conducted in Ghent University. Participants completed frequency volume chart (FVC) to compare characteristics between adults with and without nocturia. Study 1: adults with and without nocturia (n = 148); Study 2: patients ≥65 years with and without nocturnal LUTS (n = 54); Study 3: menopausal women before and after hormone replacement therapy (n = 43). All eligible patients (n = 183) completed a FVC during 24 hours (n = 13), 48 hours (n = 30) or 72 hours (n = 140). The combination of algorithms and number of determinants obtaining the best average area under the receiver operating curve (AUC-ROC) led to the final model. Differences between groups were assessed using the AUC-ROC and Mann- Whitney-Wilcoxon tests. Holm corrections were applied for multiple statistical testing. Also, the stability of the feature selection was evaluated.

RESULTS

The best discrimination was obtained when 13 determinants were included. However, a logistic regression model based on seven determinants selected with random forest had comparable discrimination including an optimal signature stability. It was able to discriminate almost perfectly between nights with and without nocturia.

CONCLUSION

Relevant information to accomplish the excellent predictability of the model is; functional bladder capacity, 24 hours urine output, nocturnal output, age, BMI. The multivariate model used in this analysis provides new insights into combination therapy as it allows simulating the effect of different available treatment modalities and its combinations.

Mathematical modeling for the prediction of cerebral white matter lesions based on clinical examination data

Cerebral white matter lesions are ischemic symptoms caused mainly by microangiopathy; they are diagnosed by MRI because they show up as abnormalities in MRI images. Because patients with white matter lesions do not have any symptoms, MRI often detects the lesions for the first time. Generally, head MRI for the diagnosis and grading of cerebral white matter lesions is performed as an option during medical checkups in Japan. In this study, we develop a mathematical model for the prediction of white matter lesions using data from routine medical evaluations that do not include a head MRI. Linear discriminant analysis, logistic discrimination, Naive Bayes classifier, support vector machine, and random forest were investigated and evaluated by ten-fold cross-validation, using clinical data for 1,904 examinees (988 males and 916 females) from medical checkups that did include the head MRI. The logistic regression model was selected based on a comparison of accuracy and interpretability. The model variables consisted of age, gender, plaque score (PS), LDL, systolic blood pressure (SBP), and administration of antihypertensive medication (odds ratios: 2.99, 1.57, 1.18, 1.06, 1.12, and 1.52, respectively) and showed Areas Under the ROC Curve (AUC) 0.805, the model displayed sensitivity of 72.0%, and specificity 75.1% when the most appropriate cutoff value was used, 0.579 as given by the Youden Index. This model has shown to be useful to identify patients with a high-risk of cerebral white matter lesions, who can then be diagnosed with a head MRI examination in order to prevent dementia, cerebral infarction, and stroke.