Complex Socio-Ecological Systems: Translating Narratives into Future Land Use and Land Cover Scenarios in the Kilombero Catchment, Tanzania

The Kilombero wetland in Tanzania is affected by advancing land use and land cover changes (LULCC), where we observe a conflict between development interests and the necessity of conservation measures to maintain the functionalities of the ecosystem. Thus, assessing patterns of LULCC is crucial to foresee potential future developments and to develop sustainable future management strategies. In this study, we use a multi-method scenario approach to assess the spatial implications and underlying driving forces of potential change by (1) developing a System Dynamics Causal Loop Diagram (CLD) to disentangle the underlying socio-economic and ecologic driving forces, (2) deriving a qualitative business-as-usual (BAU) and a conservation scenario from participatory narratives elaborated during a stakeholder workshop, and (3) quantifying the spatial implications of these scenarios with the Land Change Modeler (LCM). Results indicate that under the BAU assumption only 37% of the natural vegetation is expected to persist until 2030 in the wetland. In contrast, strict enforcement of protected areas (conservation scenario) halts further conversion of the wetland. However, both scenarios pinpoint considerable expansions of cropland in the western highlands with potentially serious impacts on catchment-wide hydrological processes. The produced qualitative and quantitative outputs reveal hotspots of possible future change and starting points for advisable further research and management interventions.

Erratum to: Elephants also like coffee: Trends and drivers of human-elephant conflicts in coffee agroforestry landscapes of Kodagu, Western Ghats, India

Kodagu district produces 2% of the world's coffee, in complex, multistoried agroforestry systems. The forests of the district harbour a large population of the Asian elephant (Elephas maximus). The combined effects of high elephant density and major landscape changes due to the expansion of coffee cultivation are the cause of human-elephant conflicts (HEC). Mitigation strategies, including electric fences and compensation schemes implemented by the Forest Department have met with limited success. Building on previous studies in the area, we assessed current spatial and temporal trends of conflict, analysed local stakeholders' perceptions and identified factors driving elephants into the estates. Our study, initiated in May 2007, shows that the intensity of HEC has increased over the last 10 years, exhibiting new seasonal patterns. Conflict maps and the lack of correlation between physical features of the coffee plantations and elephant visits suggest elephants move along corridors between the eastern and western forests of the district, opportunistically foraging when crossing the plantations. Dung analyses indicate elephants have selectively included ripe coffee berries in their diet. This is, to our knowledge, the first report of wild elephants feeding on coffee berries. If this new behaviour spreads through the population, it will compound an already severe conflict situation. The behavioural plasticity, the multiplicity of stakeholders involved, the difficulty in defining the problem and the limits of technical solutions already proposed suggest that HEC in Kodagu has the ingredients of a "wicked" problem whose resolution will require more shared understanding and problem solving work amongst the stakeholders.

Elephants also like coffee: trends and drivers of human-elephant conflicts in coffee agroforestry landscapes of Kodagu, Western Ghats, India

Kodagu district produces 2% of the world's coffee, in complex, multistoried agroforestry systems. The forests of the district harbour a large population of the Asian elephant (Elephas maximus). The combined effects of high elephant density and major landscape changes due to the expansion of coffee cultivation are the cause of human-elephant conflicts (HEC). Mitigation strategies, including electric fences and compensation schemes implemented by the Forest Department have met with limited success. Building on previous studies in the area, we assessed current spatial and temporal trends of conflict, analysed local stakeholders' perceptions and identified factors driving elephants into the estates. Our study, initiated in May 2007, shows that the intensity of HEC has increased over the last 10 years, exhibiting new seasonal patterns. Conflict maps and the lack of correlation between physical features of the coffee plantations and elephant visits suggest elephants move along corridors between the eastern and western forests of the district, opportunistically foraging when crossing the plantations. Dung analyses indicate elephants have selectively included ripe coffee berries in their diet. This is, to our knowledge, the first report of wild elephants feeding on coffee berries. If this new behaviour spreads through the population, it will compound an already severe conflict situation. The behavioural plasticity, the multiplicity of stakeholders involved, the difficulty in defining the problem and the limits of technical solutions already proposed suggest that HEC in Kodagu has the ingredients of a "wicked" problem whose resolution will require more shared understanding and problem solving work amongst the stakeholders.