Internet sales of plants for planting - an increasing trend and threat?

Cultivated alien plants with high invasion potential are more likely to be traded online in China

Biological invasions have become a worldwide problem, and measures to efficiently prevent and control invasions are still in development. Like many other parts of the world, China is undergoing a dramatic increase in plant invasions. Most of the currently 933 established (i.e., naturalized) plant species, of which 214 are categorized as invasive, have been introduced into China for cultivation. It is likely that many of those species are still being traded, particularly online, by plant nurseries. However, studies assessing whether naturalized and invasive species are currently being traded more or less than nonnaturalized aliens are rare. We extracted online-trade information for 13,718 cultivated alien plant taxa on 1688.com, the largest website for domestic B2B in China. We analyzed how the presence in online-nursery catalogs, the number of online nurseries that offerred the species for sale, and the product type (i.e., seeds, live plants and vegetative organs) differed among nonnaturalized, naturalized noninvasive, and invasive species. Compared to nonnaturalized taxa, naturalized noninvasive and invasive taxa were 3.7-5.2 times more likely to be available for purchase. Naturalized noninvasive and invasive taxa were more frequently offered as seeds by online nurseries, whereas nonnaturalized taxa were more frequently offered as live plants. Based on these findings, we propose that, to reduce the further spread of invasive and potentially invasive plants, implementation of plant-trade regulations and a monitoring system of the online horticultural supply chain will be essential.

Application of Real-Time PCR for the Detection and Quantification of Oomycetes in Ornamental Nursery Stock

Numerous Phytophthora and Pythium disease outbreaks have occurred in Europe following inadvertent introduction of contaminated ornamental plants. Detection and identification of pathogens are crucial to reduce risks and improve plant biosecurity in Europe and globally. Oomycete diversity present in roots and compost was determined in 99 hardy woody plants bought from nurseries, retailers and internet sellers, using both isolations and molecular analyses. Oomycete DNA was quantified using real-time PCR of environmental DNA from the plants using three loci: ITS, trnM-trnP-trnM and atp9-nad9. At least one oomycete species was isolated from 89.9% of plants using classical techniques. In total, 10 Phytophthora spp., 17 Pythium spp. and 5 Phytopythium spp. were isolated. Oomycetes were isolated from 86% of asymptomatic plants, but real-time PCR demonstrated that oomycetes were associated with all plants tested. More oomycete DNA occurred in composts in comparison with roots and filters from baiting water (a mean of 7.91 ng g⁻¹, 6.55 × 10⁻¹ ng g⁻¹ and 5.62 × 10⁻¹ ng g⁻¹ of oomycete DNA detected in compost with ITS, trnM and atp9 probes, respectively); the ITS probe detected the highest quantities of oomycete DNA. No significant differences were found in quantities of oomycete DNA detected using real-time PCR in plants purchased online or from traditional retailers.

Online auction marketplaces as a global pathway for aquatic invasive species

The ornamental aquarium pet trade is a leading pathway for the introduction of aquatic invasive species. In addition to purchasing live organisms in stores, hobbyists are engaging more with alternative informal online marketplaces that enable peer-to-peer selling of aquarium organisms via auctions. Although growing in popularity, little is known regarding the global extent of informal marketplaces, including the taxonomy of species that are traded, their economic value, and the geographic routes by which live organisms are transported. In this study we use an automated web crawler to collect data on completed auctions between 2011 and 2017 from the largest informal market for aquarium hobbyists, AquaBid, to understand the market dynamics and trade flows of the informal retail market online. During the 7-year study period, the AquaBid website facilitated the estimated trade of 539,548 live freshwater animals, 579,700 fish eggs, and 31,431 plant assortments/bunches among 24,409 unique users who collectively placed 444,132 bids on 192,227 auctions, representing a total sale value of $6,015,030 USD. Source (seller) and recipient (buyer) locations of live organisms were distributed across 39 countries but concentrated largely in major cities of the United States and select European and southeast Asian countries. Our study is among the first to quantify geographic routes of live organism transport between specific locations on the landscape and demonstrates the highly diffuse and non-centralized nature of the informal aquarium trade. Evaluating the emerging challenges represented by informal online retail marketplaces is critical to create policy and regulatory solutions that minimize the transport of prohibited invasive species.

Modelling plant health for policy

Plant health is relatively poorly funded compared with animal and human health issues. However, we contend it is at least as complex and likely more so given the number of pests and hosts and that outbreaks occur in poorly monitored open systems. Modelling is often suggested as a method to better consider the threats to plant health to aid resource and time poor decision makers in their prioritisation of responses. However, like other areas of science, the modelling community has not always provided accessible and relevant solutions. We describe some potential solutions to developing plant health models in conjunction with decision makers based upon a recent example and illustrate how an increased emphasis on plant health is slowly expanding the potential role of modelling in decision making. We place the research in the Credibility, Relevance and Legitimacy (CRELE) framework and discuss the implications for future developments in co-construction of policy-linked models.

Guidance on quantitative pest risk assessment

This Guidance describes a two-phase approach for a fit-for-purpose method for the assessment of plant pest risk in the territory of the EU. Phase one consists of pest categorisation to determine whether the pest has the characteristics of a quarantine pest or those of a regulated non-quarantine pest for the area of the EU. Phase two consists of pest risk assessment, which may be requested by the risk managers following the pest categorisation results. This Guidance provides a template for pest categorisation and describes in detail the use of modelling and expert knowledge elicitation to conduct a pest risk assessment. The Guidance provides support and a framework for assessors to provide quantitative estimates, together with associated uncertainties, regarding the entry, establishment, spread and impact of plant pests in the EU. The Guidance allows the effectiveness of risk reducing options (RROs) to be quantitatively assessed as an integral part of the assessment framework. A list of RROs is provided. A two-tiered approach is proposed for the use of expert knowledge elicitation and modelling. Depending on data and resources available and the needs of risk managers, pest entry, establishment, spread and impact steps may be assessed directly, using weight of evidence and quantitative expert judgement (first tier), or they may be elaborated in substeps using quantitative models (second tier). An example of an application of the first tier approach is provided. Guidance is provided on how to derive models of appropriate complexity to conduct a second tier assessment. Each assessment is operationalised using Monte Carlo simulations that can compare scenarios for relevant factors, e.g. with or without RROs. This document provides guidance on how to compare scenarios to draw conclusions on the magnitude of pest risks and the effectiveness of RROs and on how to communicate assessment results.

The changing role of ornamental horticulture in alien plant invasions

The number of alien plants escaping from cultivation into native ecosystems is increasing steadily. We provide an overview of the historical, contemporary and potential future roles of ornamental horticulture in plant invasions. We show that currently at least 75% and 93% of the global naturalised alien flora is grown in domestic and botanical gardens, respectively. Species grown in gardens also have a larger naturalised range than those that are not. After the Middle Ages, particularly in the 18th and 19th centuries, a global trade network in plants emerged. Since then, cultivated alien species also started to appear in the wild more frequently than non-cultivated aliens globally, particularly during the 19th century. Horticulture still plays a prominent role in current plant introduction, and the monetary value of live-plant imports in different parts of the world is steadily increasing. Historically, botanical gardens - an important component of horticulture - played a major role in displaying, cultivating and distributing new plant discoveries. While the role of botanical gardens in the horticultural supply chain has declined, they are still a significant link, with one-third of institutions involved in retail-plant sales and horticultural research. However, botanical gardens have also become more dependent on commercial nurseries as plant sources, particularly in North America. Plants selected for ornamental purposes are not a random selection of the global flora, and some of the plant characteristics promoted through horticulture, such as fast growth, also promote invasion. Efforts to breed non-invasive plant cultivars are still rare. Socio-economical, technological, and environmental changes will lead to novel patterns of plant introductions and invasion opportunities for the species that are already cultivated. We describe the role that horticulture could play in mediating these changes. We identify current research challenges, and call for more research efforts on the past and current role of horticulture in plant invasions. This is required to develop science-based regulatory frameworks to prevent further plant invasions.

E-commerce trade in invasive plants

Biological invasions are a major concern in conservation, especially because global transport of species is still increasing rapidly. Conservationists hope to anticipate and thus prevent future invasions by identifying and regulating potentially invasive species through species risk assessments and international trade regulations. Among many introduction pathways of non-native species, horticulture is a particularly important driver of plant invasions. In recent decades, the horticultural industry expanded globally and changed structurally through the emergence of new distribution channels, including internet trade (e-commerce). Using an automated search algorithm, we surveyed, on a daily basis, e-commerce trade on 10 major online auction sites (including eBay) of approximately three-fifths of the world's spermatophyte flora. Many recognized invasive plant species (>500 species) (i.e., species associated with ecological or socio-economic problems) were traded daily worldwide on the internet. A markedly higher proportion of invasive than non-invasive species were available online. Typically, for a particular plant family, 30-80% of recognized invasive species were detected on an auction site, but only a few percentages of all species in the plant family were detected on a site. Families that were more traded had a higher proportion of invasive species than families that were less traded. For woody species, there was a significant positive relationship between the number of regions where a species was sold and the number of regions where it was invasive. Our results indicate that biosecurity is not effectively regulating online plant trade. In the future, automated monitoring of e-commerce may help prevent the spread of invasive species, provide information on emerging trade connectivity across national borders, and be used in horizon scanning exercises for early detection of new species and their geographic source areas in international trade.

Network epidemiology and plant trade networks

Models of epidemics in complex networks are improving our predictive understanding of infectious disease outbreaks. Nonetheless, applying network theory to plant pathology is still a challenge. This overview summarizes some key developments in network epidemiology that are likely to facilitate its application in the study and management of plant diseases. Recent surveys have provided much-needed datasets on contact patterns and human mobility in social networks, but plant trade networks are still understudied. Human (and plant) mobility levels across the planet are unprecedented-there is thus much potential in the use of network theory by plant health authorities and researchers. Given the directed and hierarchical nature of plant trade networks, there is a need for plant epidemiologists to further develop models based on undirected and homogeneous networks. More realistic plant health scenarios would also be obtained by developing epidemic models in dynamic, rather than static, networks. For plant diseases spread by the horticultural and ornamental trade, there is the challenge of developing spatio-temporal epidemic simulations integrating network data. The use of network theory in plant epidemiology is a promising avenue and could contribute to anticipating and preventing plant health emergencies such as European ash dieback.