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Starlinger P, Ahn JC, Mullan A, Gyoeri GP, Pereyra D, Alva‐Ruiz R, Hackl H, Reiberger T, Trauner M, Santol J, Simbrunner B, Mandorfer M, Berlakovich G, Kamath PS, Heimbach J. The Addition of C-Reactive Protein and von Willebrand Factor to Model for End-Stage Liver Disease-Sodium Improves Prediction of Waitlist Mortality. Hepatology 2021; 74:1533-1545. [PMID: 33786862 PMCID: PMC8518408 DOI: 10.1002/hep.31838] [Citation(s) in RCA: 13] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/06/2020] [Revised: 02/09/2021] [Accepted: 03/14/2021] [Indexed: 12/20/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND AND AIMS Patients with cirrhosis on the liver transplant (LT) waiting list may die or be removed because of complications of portal hypertension (PH) or infections. von Willebrand factor antigen (vWF-Ag) and C-reactive protein (CRP) are simple, broadly available markers of these processes. APPROACH AND RESULTS We determined whether addition of vWF-Ag and CRP to the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease-Sodium (MELD-Na) score improves risk stratification of patients awaiting LT. CRP and vWF-Ag at LT listing were assessed in two independent cohorts (Medical University of Vienna [exploration cohort] and Mayo Clinic Rochester [validation cohort]). Clinical characteristics, MELD-Na, and mortality on the waiting list were recorded. Prediction of 3-month waiting list mortality was assessed by receiver operating characteristics curve (ROC-AUC). In order to explore potential mechanisms underlying the prognostic utility of vWF-Ag and CRP in this setting, we evaluated their association with PH, bacterial translocation, systemic inflammation, and circulatory dysfunction. In the exploration cohort (n = 269) vWF-Ag and CRP both improved the predictive value of MELD-Na for 3-month waitlist mortality and showed the highest predictive value when combined (AUC: MELD-Na, 0.764; MELD-Na + CRP, 0.790; MELD-Na + vWF, 0.803; MELD-Na + CRP + vWF-Ag, 0.824). Results were confirmed in an independent validation cohort (n = 129; AUC: MELD-Na, 0.677; MELD-Na + CRP + vWF-Ag, 0.882). vWF-Ag was independently associated with PH and inflammatory biomarkers, whereas CRP closely, and MELD independently, correlated with biomarkers of bacterial translocation/inflammation. CONCLUSIONS The addition of vWF-Ag and CRP-reflecting central pathophysiological mechanisms of PH, bacterial translocation, and inflammation, that are all drivers of mortality on the waiting list for LT-to the MELD-Na score improves prediction of waitlist mortality. Using the vWFAg-CRP-MELD-Na model for prioritizing organ allocation may improve prediction of waitlist mortality and decrease waitlist mortality.
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Affiliation(s)
- Patrick Starlinger
- Department of SurgeryDivision of Hepatobiliary and Pancreas SurgeryMayo ClinicRochesterMN,Department of SurgeryDivision of General SurgeryMedical University of ViennaGeneral Hospital ViennaViennaAustria
| | - Joseph C. Ahn
- Division of Gastroenterology and HepatologyMayo ClinicRochesterMN
| | - Aidan Mullan
- Department of Health Sciences ResearchMayo ClinicRochesterMN
| | - Georg P. Gyoeri
- Department of SurgeryDivision of General SurgeryMedical University of ViennaGeneral Hospital ViennaViennaAustria,Division of TransplantationDepartment of SurgeryMedical University of ViennaGeneral Hospital ViennaViennaAustria
| | - David Pereyra
- Department of SurgeryDivision of General SurgeryMedical University of ViennaGeneral Hospital ViennaViennaAustria
| | - Roberto Alva‐Ruiz
- Department of SurgeryDivision of Hepatobiliary and Pancreas SurgeryMayo ClinicRochesterMN
| | - Hubert Hackl
- Institute of BioinformaticsBiocenterMedical University of InnsbruckInnsbruckAustria
| | - Thomas Reiberger
- Division of Gastroenterology and HepatologyDepartment of Medicine IIIMedical University of ViennaViennaAustria,Vienna Hepatic Hemodynamic LabMedical University of ViennaViennaAustria,Christian Doppler Laboratory for Portal Hypertension and Liver FibrosisMedical University of ViennaViennaAustria
| | - Michael Trauner
- Division of Gastroenterology and HepatologyDepartment of Medicine IIIMedical University of ViennaViennaAustria
| | - Jonas Santol
- Department of SurgeryDivision of General SurgeryMedical University of ViennaGeneral Hospital ViennaViennaAustria
| | - Benedikt Simbrunner
- Division of Gastroenterology and HepatologyDepartment of Medicine IIIMedical University of ViennaViennaAustria,Vienna Hepatic Hemodynamic LabMedical University of ViennaViennaAustria,Christian Doppler Laboratory for Portal Hypertension and Liver FibrosisMedical University of ViennaViennaAustria
| | - Mattias Mandorfer
- Division of Gastroenterology and HepatologyDepartment of Medicine IIIMedical University of ViennaViennaAustria,Vienna Hepatic Hemodynamic LabMedical University of ViennaViennaAustria,Christian Doppler Laboratory for Portal Hypertension and Liver FibrosisMedical University of ViennaViennaAustria
| | - Gabriela Berlakovich
- Division of TransplantationDepartment of SurgeryMedical University of ViennaGeneral Hospital ViennaViennaAustria
| | | | - Julie Heimbach
- Department of SurgeryDivision of Transplantation SurgeryMayo ClinicRochesterMN
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Györi GP, Pereyra D, Rumpf B, Hackl H, Köditz C, Ortmayr G, Reiberger T, Trauner M, Berlakovich GA, Starlinger P. The von Willebrand Factor Facilitates Model for End-Stage Liver Disease-Independent Risk Stratification on the Waiting List for Liver Transplantation. Hepatology 2020; 72:584-594. [PMID: 31773739 PMCID: PMC7497135 DOI: 10.1002/hep.31047] [Citation(s) in RCA: 20] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/28/2019] [Accepted: 11/07/2019] [Indexed: 12/18/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND AND AIMS The Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) is used for clinical decision-making and organ allocation for orthotopic liver transplantation (OLT) and was previously upgraded through inclusion of serum sodium (Na) concentrations (MELD-Na). However, MELD-Na may underestimate complications arising from portal hypertension or infection. The von Willebrand factor (vWF) antigen (vWF-Ag) correlates with portal pressure and seems capable of predicting complications in patients with cirrhosis. Accordingly, this study aimed to evaluate vWF-Ag as an adjunct surrogate marker for risk stratification on the waiting list for OLT. APPROACH AND RESULTS Hence, WF-Ag at time of listing was assessed in patients listed for OLT. Clinical characteristics, MELD-Na, and mortality on the waiting list were recorded. Prediction of 3-month waiting-list survival was assessed by receiver operating characteristics and net reclassification improvement. Interestingly, patients dying within 3 months on the waiting list displayed elevated levels of vWF-Ag (P < 0.001). MELD-Na and vWF-Ag were comparable and independent in their predictive potential for 3-month mortality on the waiting list (area under the curve [AUC], vWF-Ag = 0.739; MELD-Na = 0.764). Importantly, a vWF-Ag cutoff at 413% identified patients at risk for death within 3 months of listing with a higher odds ratio (OR) than the previously published cutoff at a MELD-Na of 20 points (vWF-Ag, OR = 10.873, 95% confidence interval [CI], 3.160, 36.084; MELD-Na, OR = 7.594, 95% CI, 2.578, 22.372; P < 0.001, respectively). Ultimately, inclusion of vWF-Ag into the MELD-Na equation significantly improved prediction of 3-month waiting-list mortality (AUC, MELD-Na-vWF = 0.804). CONCLUSIONS A single measurement of vWF-Ag at listing for OLT predicts early mortality. Combining vWF-Ag levels with MELD-Na improves risk stratification and may help to prioritize organ allocation to decrease waiting-list mortality.
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Affiliation(s)
- Georg P. Györi
- Division of TransplantationDepartment of SurgeryMedical University of ViennaGeneral Hospital ViennaViennaAustria
| | - David Pereyra
- Division of General SurgeryDepartment of SurgeryMedical University of ViennaGeneral Hospital ViennaViennaAustria
| | - Benedikt Rumpf
- Division of General SurgeryDepartment of SurgeryMedical University of ViennaGeneral Hospital ViennaViennaAustria
| | - Hubert Hackl
- Division of Bioinformatics, BiocenterMedical University of InnsbruckInnsbruckAustria
| | - Christoph Köditz
- Division of General SurgeryDepartment of SurgeryMedical University of ViennaGeneral Hospital ViennaViennaAustria
| | - Gregor Ortmayr
- Division of General SurgeryDepartment of SurgeryMedical University of ViennaGeneral Hospital ViennaViennaAustria
| | - Thomas Reiberger
- Division of Gastroenterology and HepatologyDepartment of Internal Medicine IIIMedical University of ViennaGeneral Hospital ViennaViennaAustria
| | - Michael Trauner
- Division of Gastroenterology and HepatologyDepartment of Internal Medicine IIIMedical University of ViennaGeneral Hospital ViennaViennaAustria
| | - Gabriela A. Berlakovich
- Division of TransplantationDepartment of SurgeryMedical University of ViennaGeneral Hospital ViennaViennaAustria
| | - Patrick Starlinger
- Division of General SurgeryDepartment of SurgeryMedical University of ViennaGeneral Hospital ViennaViennaAustria
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Lin S, Chen J, Wang M, Han L, Zhang H, Dong J, Zeng D, Jiang J, Zhu Y. Prognostic nomogram for acute-on-chronic hepatitis B liver failure. Oncotarget 2017; 8:109772-109782. [PMID: 29312647 PMCID: PMC5752560 DOI: 10.18632/oncotarget.21012] [Citation(s) in RCA: 15] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/25/2017] [Accepted: 08/28/2017] [Indexed: 12/12/2022] Open
Abstract
Background & Aims To establish an effective prognostic nomogram for acute-on-chronic hepatitis B liver failure (ACHBLF). Materials and Methods The nomogram was based on clinical data of 203 ACHBLF patients who admitted to the First Affiliated Hospital of Fujian Medical University from 2009 to 2014. The area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUC) and calibration curve were carried out to verify the predictive accuracy ability of the nomogram. The result was validated in internal and external validation cohorts. Kaplan-Meier survival curve was used in survival analysis. Results We developed a new prognostic nomogram to predict 3-month mortality based on risk factors selected by multivariate analysis. This nomogram consisted three independent factors: age, liver to abdominal area ratio (LAAR) and model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score. The AUC of this nomogram for survival prediction was 0.877 (95% CI 0.831–0.923), which was higher than that of MELD score, MELD-Na and Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP). Good agreement of calibration plot for the probability of survival at 3-month was shown between the prediction by nomogram and actual observation. These results were supported by internal and external validation studies. Conclusions The ACHBLF nomogram could predict the short-term survival for ACHBLF patients.
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Affiliation(s)
- Su Lin
- Liver Research Center, First Affiliated Hospital of Fujian Medical University, Fuzhou, Fujian, China
| | - Juan Chen
- Digestive System Department, Fujian Provincial Hospital, Fuzhou, Fujian, China
| | - Mingfang Wang
- Liver Research Center, First Affiliated Hospital of Fujian Medical University, Fuzhou, Fujian, China
| | - Lifen Han
- Department of Infectious Disease, Meng Chao Hepatobiliary Hospital of Fujian Medical University, Fuzhou, Fujian, China
| | - Haoyang Zhang
- Division of Biostatistics, JC School of Public Health and Primary Care, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Sha Tin, Hongkong, China
| | - Jing Dong
- Liver Research Center, First Affiliated Hospital of Fujian Medical University, Fuzhou, Fujian, China
| | - Dawu Zeng
- Liver Research Center, First Affiliated Hospital of Fujian Medical University, Fuzhou, Fujian, China
| | - Jiaji Jiang
- Liver Research Center, First Affiliated Hospital of Fujian Medical University, Fuzhou, Fujian, China
| | - Yueyong Zhu
- Liver Research Center, First Affiliated Hospital of Fujian Medical University, Fuzhou, Fujian, China
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Samonakis DN, Koulentaki M, Coucoutsi C, Augoustaki A, Baritaki C, Digenakis E, Papiamonis N, Fragaki M, Matrella E, Tzardi M, Kouroumalis EA. Clinical outcomes of compensated and decompensated cirrhosis: A long term study. World J Hepatol 2014; 6:504-512. [PMID: 25068002 PMCID: PMC4110542 DOI: 10.4254/wjh.v6.i7.504] [Citation(s) in RCA: 40] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/27/2013] [Revised: 03/21/2014] [Accepted: 06/11/2014] [Indexed: 02/06/2023] Open
Abstract
AIM: To study these characteristics and prognostic patterns in a Greek patient population.
METHODS: We analyzed a large cohort of cirrhotic patients referred to the department of Gastroenterology and Hepatology and the outpatient clinics of this tertiary hospital, between 1991 and 2008. We included patients with established cirrhosis, either compensated or decompensated, and further decompensation episodes were registered. A data base was maintained and updated prospectively throughout the study period. We analyzed differences in cirrhosis aetiology, time to and mode of decompensation, hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) occurrence and ultimately patient survival.
RESULTS: Five hundreds and twenty-two patients with median age 67 (range, 29-91) years and average follow up 9 years-10 mo (range, 1-206 mo) were studied. Commonest aetiology was hepatitis C virus (HCV, 41%) followed by alcohol (31%). The median survival time in compensated cirrhotics was 115 mo (95%CI: 95-133), whereas in decompensated patients was 55 mo (95%CI: 36-75). HCV patients survived longer while HBV patients had over twice the risk of death of HCV patients. The median time to decompensation was 65 mo (95%CI: 51-79), with alcoholics having the highest risk (RR = 2.1 vs HCV patients). Hepatitis B virus (HBV) patients had the highest risk of HCC, alcoholics the lowest. Leading causes of death: liver failure, hepatorenal syndrome, sepsis and HCC progression.
CONCLUSION: Cirrhosis aetiology and decompensation at presentation were predictors of survival. Alcoholics had the highest decompensation risk, HBV cirrhotics the highest risk of HCC and HCV cirrhotics the highest decompensation-free time.
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Cross TJS, Joseph M, Fernando RAM, Farrell C, Mitchell JD. The liver to abdominal area ratio (LAAR): a novel imaging score for prognostication in cirrhosis. Aliment Pharmacol Ther 2013; 38:1385-94. [PMID: 24138313 DOI: 10.1111/apt.12529] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/08/2013] [Revised: 03/26/2013] [Accepted: 09/23/2013] [Indexed: 12/28/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Anecdotally, liver size is important in determining prognosis in patients with end-stage liver disease (ESLD). AIMS To assess if a ratio of liver area and abdominal area on cross-sectional imaging could accurately predict mortality in ESLD. METHODS A retrospective-prospective cohort study was performed on patients with ESLD in a training set. The censor point used was date of patient death or liver transplant (LT). The liver to abdominal area ratio (LAAR) was calculated using the formula {LAAR = [liver area (cm(2))/abdominal area (cm(2))] × 100}. A validation set was collected from a different institution. RESULTS Three hundred and sixteen patients were identified. Complete imaging and survival data were available in 158 subjects, 100 male (63%). The LAAR score detected progression to death/LT in our cohort (P < 0.003). Its prognostic accuracy at 90, 360 and 720 days, using the optimal cut-off (32.1), from baseline CT date to death/LT using the log-rank test was P = 0.28, P = 0.06 (OR 1.347, 95% CI 0.94-1.94) and P < 0.0001 (OR 1.89, 95% CI 1.25-2.85) respectively. On multivariate analysis, LAAR (P = 0.008), MELD (P = 0.004) and MELD-Na (P = 0.03) were independently associated with the primary study outcome measurement at 720 days. The validation set of 52 patients confirmed the utility of the LAAR to determine risk of death or need for LT, AUROC 0.89 (0.78-0.97), and P < 0.0001. CONCLUSIONS The liver to abdominal area ratio (LAAR) score offers a new paradigm in disease modelling in end-stage liver disease (ESLD) and offers prognostic accuracy at 2 years from computer tomography (CT) imaging.
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Affiliation(s)
- T J S Cross
- Department of Hepatology, The Royal Liverpool Hospital, Liverpool, UK
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Alkaline phosphatase: the next independent predictor of the poor 90-day outcome in alcoholic hepatitis. BIOMED RESEARCH INTERNATIONAL 2013; 2013:614081. [PMID: 24151614 PMCID: PMC3789301 DOI: 10.1155/2013/614081] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/14/2013] [Revised: 07/30/2013] [Accepted: 08/13/2013] [Indexed: 12/11/2022]
Abstract
AIM Determination of risk factors relevant to 90-day prognosis in AH. Comparison of the conventional prognostic models such as Maddrey's modified discriminant function (mDF) and Child-Pugh-Turcotte (CPT) score with newer ones: the Glasgow Alcoholic Hepatitis Score (GAHS); Age, Bilirubin, INR, Creatinine (ABIC) score, Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD), and MELD-Na in the death prediction. PATIENTS AND METHODS The clinical and laboratory variables obtained at admission were assessed. The mDF, CPT, GAHS, ABIC, MELD, and MELD-Na scores' different areas under the curve (AUCs) and the best threshold values were compared. Logistic regression was used to assess predictors of the 90-day outcome. RESULTS One hundred sixteen pts fulfilled the inclusion criteria. Twenty (17.4%) pts died and one underwent orthotopic liver transplantation (OLT) within 90 days of follow-up. No statistically significant differences in the models' performances were found. Multivariate logistic regression identified CPT score, alkaline phosphatase (AP) level higher than 1.5 times the upper limit of normal (ULN), and corticosteroids (CS) nonresponse as independent predictors of mortality. CONCLUSIONS The CPT score, AP > 1.5 ULN, and the CS nonresponse had an independent impact on the 90-day survival in AH. Accuracy of all studied scoring systems was comparable.
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Afolabi P, Wright M, Wootton SA, Jackson AA. 13C-aminopyrine demethylation is decreased in cirrhotic patients with normal biochemical markers. ISOTOPES IN ENVIRONMENTAL AND HEALTH STUDIES 2013; 49:346-356. [PMID: 23799253 DOI: 10.1080/10256016.2013.803098] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 06/02/2023]
Abstract
This study determined the rates of (13)C-aminopyrine metabolism in patients with varying degrees of liver cirrhosis as defined by clinical scores. Twenty-five cirrhotic patients and 18 healthy subjects underwent a (13)C-aminopyrine breath test. The cumulative per cent dose recovery (cPDR) of (13)C on breath expressed as a percentage of the administered dose at 2 h was significantly lower in cirrhotic patients than in healthy subjects (median: 1.7% versus 9.0%; p<.0001). Significant inverse associations between cPDR at 2 h and the model for end-stage liver disease score, Child-Pugh score, international normalised ratio and bilirubin (all p<.05), but not alanine aminotransferase or alkaline phosphatase were observed in the cirrhotic patients. Taking each biochemical marker independently, cirrhotic patients with normal biochemistry had a significantly lower cPDR at 2 h than healthy subjects (all p<.05). Differences in (13)C-aminopyrine metabolism were evident in cirrhotic patients with less severe disease and may mark hepatic dysfunction when conventional biochemical markers appear unchanged.
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Affiliation(s)
- Paul Afolabi
- a National Institute for Health Research Biomedical Research Centre (Nutrition), Southampton Centre for Biomedical Research, Southampton General Hospital , Southampton , UK
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Abstract
Model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score, initially developed to predict survival following transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt was subsequently found to be accurate predictor of mortality amongst patents with end-stage liver disease. Since 2002, MELD score using 3 objective variables (serum bilirubin, serum creatinine, and institutional normalized ratio) has been used worldwide for listing and transplanting patients with end-stage liver disease allowing transplanting sicker patients first irrespective of the wait time on the list. MELD score has also been shown to be accurate predictor of survival amongst patients with alcoholic hepatitis, following variceal hemorrhage, infections in cirrhosis, after surgery in patients with cirrhosis including liver resection, trauma, and hepatorenal syndrome (HRS). Although, MELD score is closest to the ideal score, there are some limitations including its inaccuracy in predicting survival in 15-20% cases. Over the last decade, many efforts have been made to further improve and refine MELD score. Until, a better score is developed, liver allocation would continue based on the currently used MELD score.
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Key Words
- AH, alcoholic hepatitis
- BAR, balance risk
- CTP, Child–Pugh–Turcotte
- Cirrhosis
- DFI, discriminate function index
- EDC, extended donor criteria
- ESLD, end-stage liver disease
- FHF, fulminant hepatic failure
- GFR, glomerular filtration rate
- HVPG, hepatic venous pressure gradient
- LT, liver transplantation
- Liver transplantation
- MDRD, modification of diet in renal disease
- MELD
- MELD, model for end-stage liver disease
- MLP, multi-layer perceptron
- QALY, quality adjusted life years
- SLK, simultaneous liver kidney transplantation
- SOFA, sequential organ failure assessment
- SOFT, survival outcomes following transplantation
- TIPS, transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic
- UKELD, UK end stage liver disease score
- UNOS, United Network for Organ Sharing
- VH, variceal hemorrhage
- deMELD, drop-out equivalent MELD
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Patrick S. Kamath
- Address for correspondence: Patrick S. Kamath, Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Mayo Clinic, Rochester, MN, USA.
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Basto ST, Villela-Nogueira CA, Tura BR, Coelho HSM, Ribeiro J, Fernandes ESM, Schmal AF, Victor L, Luiz RR, Perez RM. Risk factors for long-term mortality in a large cohort of patients wait-listed for liver transplantation in Brazil. Liver Transpl 2011; 17:1013-20. [PMID: 21604358 DOI: 10.1002/lt.22344] [Citation(s) in RCA: 10] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 02/07/2023]
Abstract
Liver donor shortage and long waiting times are observed in many liver transplant programs worldwide. The aim of this study was to evaluate the wait list in a developing country, before and after the introduction of the MELD scoring system. In addition, the MELD score ability to predict mortality in this setting was assessed. A single-center retrospective study of patients wait-listed for liver transplantation between 1997 and 2010 was undertaken. There were 1339 and 762 patients on the list in pre-MELD and MELD era, respectively. A competitive risk analysis was performed to assess age, gender, disease diagnosis, serum sodium, MELD, Child-Pugh, ABO type, and body mass index. Also, MELD score predictive ability at 3, 6, 12, and 24 months after list enrollment was evaluated. The overall mortality rates on waiting list were 31.0% and 28.1% (P = 0.16), and the median waiting times were 412 and 952 days (P < 0.001), in pre and MELD eras, respectively. The competitive risk analysis yielded the following significant P values for both eras: HCC (0.03 and <0.001), MELD (<0.001 and 0.002), sodium level (0.002 and <0.001), and Child-Pugh (0.02 and <0.001). The MELD mortality predictions at 3, 6, 12, and 24 months were similar. In conclusion, in a liver transplant program with long waiting times, the MELD system introduction did not improve mortality rate. In either pre and MELD eras, HCC diagnosis, serum sodium, Child-Pugh, and MELD were significant predictors of prognosis. Short- and long-term MELD based mortality predictions were similarly accurate. Strategies for increasing the liver donor pool should be implemented to improve mortality.
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Affiliation(s)
- Samanta T Basto
- Division of Hepatology, Department of Internal Medicine, Federal University of Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.
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The MELD score in patients awaiting liver transplant: strengths and weaknesses. J Hepatol 2011; 54:1297-306. [PMID: 21145851 DOI: 10.1016/j.jhep.2010.11.008] [Citation(s) in RCA: 115] [Impact Index Per Article: 8.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/08/2010] [Revised: 11/10/2010] [Accepted: 11/12/2010] [Indexed: 12/14/2022]
Abstract
Adoption of the Model for End-stage Liver Disease (MELD) to select and prioritize patients for liver transplantation represented a turning point in organ allocation. Prioritization of transplant recipients switched from time accrued on the waiting list to the principle of "sickest first". The MELD score incorporates three simple laboratory parameters (serum creatinine and bilirubin, and INR for prothrombin time) and stratifies patients according to their disease severity in an objective and continuous ranking scale. Concordance statistics have demonstrated its high accuracy in stratifying patients according to their risk of dying in the short-term (three months). Further validations of MELD as a predictor of survival at various temporal end-points have been obtained in independent patient cohorts with a broad spectrum of chronic liver disease. The MELD-based liver graft allocation policy has led to a reduction in waitlist new registrations and mortality, shorter waiting times, and an increase in transplants, without altering overall graft and patient survival rates after transplantation. MELD limitations are related either to the inter-laboratory variability of the parameters included in the score, or to the inability of the formula to predict mortality accurately in specific settings. For some conditions, such as hepatocellular carcinoma, widely accepted MELD corrections have been devised. For others, such as persistent ascites and hyponatremia, attempts to improve MELD's predicting power are currently underway, but await definite validation.
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Sarcopenia and mortality after liver transplantation. J Am Coll Surg 2010; 211:271-8. [PMID: 20670867 DOI: 10.1016/j.jamcollsurg.2010.03.039] [Citation(s) in RCA: 587] [Impact Index Per Article: 41.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/10/2010] [Revised: 03/23/2010] [Accepted: 03/24/2010] [Indexed: 12/12/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Surgeons frequently struggle to determine patient suitability for liver transplantation. Objective and comprehensive measures of overall burden of disease, such as sarcopenia, could inform clinicians and help avoid futile transplantations. STUDY DESIGN The cross-sectional area of the psoas muscle was measured on CT scans of 163 liver transplant recipients. After controlling for donor and recipient characteristics using Cox regression models, we described the relationship between psoas area and post-transplantation mortality. RESULTS Psoas area correlated poorly with Model for End-Stage Liver Disease score and serum albumin. Cox regression revealed a strong association between psoas area and post-transplantation mortality (hazard ratio = 3.7/1,000 mm(2) decrease in psoas area; p < 0.0001). When stratified into quartiles based on psoas area (holding donor and recipient characteristics constant), 1-year survival ranged from 49.7% for the quartile with the smallest psoas area to 87.0% for the quartile with the largest. Survival at 3 years among these groups was 26.4% and 77.2%, respectively. The impact of psoas area on survival exceeded that of all other covariates in these models. CONCLUSIONS Central sarcopenia strongly correlates with mortality after liver transplantation. Such objective measures of patient frailty, such as sarcopenia, can inform clinical decision making and, potentially, allocation policy. Additional work is needed develop valid and clinically relevant measures of sarcopenia and frailty in liver transplantation.
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Wurm M, Woess C, Libiseller K, Beer B, Pavlic M. Challenging Small Human Hepatocytes with Opiates: Further Characterization of a Novel Prototype Bioartificial Liver. Tissue Eng Part A 2010; 16:807-13. [DOI: 10.1089/ten.tea.2009.0420] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/14/2022] Open
Affiliation(s)
- Martin Wurm
- Department of General and Transplant Surgery, Medical University of Innsbruck, Innsbruck, Austria
| | - Claudia Woess
- Institute of Legal Medicine, Innsbruck Medical University, Innsbruck, Austria
| | - Kathrin Libiseller
- Institute of Legal Medicine, Innsbruck Medical University, Innsbruck, Austria
| | - Beate Beer
- Institute of Legal Medicine, Innsbruck Medical University, Innsbruck, Austria
| | - Marion Pavlic
- Institute of Legal Medicine, Innsbruck Medical University, Innsbruck, Austria
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