Prediction of outcome from intensive care after gastroenterologic emergency

Predictors of Outcome of Cirrhotic Patients Requiring Invasive Mechanical Ventilation: Experience From a Non-Transplant Tertiary Care Hospital in Pakistan

Background

Patients with known liver cirrhosis, irrespective of the etiology, have poor outcomes when put on invasive mechanical ventilation in an intensive care unit (ICU) setting. The clinical situation becomes even more complicated when such patients are managed in a non-transplant center. Various factors are associated with poor outcomes, and hence, various scoring systems are available to help determine the prognosis in patients with liver cirrhosis. These scoring systems are broadly classified into two categories, namely, ICU-specific scoring systems and liver disease-specific scoring systems. There is a dearth of data from Pakistan regarding which score better determines the prognosis of patients with liver cirrhosis admitted to the ICU. In this study, we aimed to determine the outcome of cirrhotic patients requiring invasive mechanical ventilation in a non-transplant tertiary care hospital in Pakistan using ICU-specific and liver disease-specific scoring systems.

Methodology

A retrospective study design was applied to a record of 88 cirrhotic patients admitted to the medical ICU of a tertiary care teaching hospital in Karachi, Pakistan, from January 2016 to November 2016. Patients with acute hepatitis were excluded. Data on patients’ characteristics, the reason for intubation, hepatic encephalopathy, the need for vasopressor support, and the duration of ICU and hospital stay were collected. Moreover, the first-day Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) II, Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA), Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP), and Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) scores were calculated, with mortality being the primary outcome measure.

Results

The most common etiology was hepatitis C (52.3%, 46/88). The most common reason for intubation was airway protection (57.9%, 51/88). Overall mortality was 71.6% (63/88). On univariate analysis, CTP score >10, MELD score >18, hepatic encephalopathy, bilirubin, prothrombin time, presence of tense ascites, and APACHE II were significantly associated with mortality. On multivariate analysis, CTP score >10 (odd ratio = 21; 95% confidence interval (CI): 4-104; p < 0.001) was an independent predictor of mortality. Area under curve was 0.89 (95% CI = 0.82-0.96) for CTP, 0.86 (95% CI = 0.77-0.95) for MELD, 0.81 (95% CI = 0.69-0.92) for APACHE II, and 0.81 (95% CI = 0.71-0.91) for SOFA in predicting mortality.

Conclusions

CTP and MELD scores are better predictors of short-term mortality in patients with liver cirrhosis requiring invasive mechanical ventilation compared to APACHE II and SOFA scores. CTP score >10 was an independent predictor of mortality.

Does intubation really equal death in cirrhotic patients? Factors influencing outcome in patients with liver cirrhosis requiring mechanical ventilation

OBJECTIVE

It is not known whether the poor outcome of ventilated cirrhotic patients is related to the severity of the underlying liver disease or to the severity of the acute illness for which ICU care is required. This study examines parameters both of chronic liver disease and of acute illness with regard to their influence on outcome in mechanically ventilated cirrhotic patients.

DESIGN AND SETTING

Retrospective observational case series in a 9-bed medical ICU in an academic tertiary care center.

PATIENTS AND MEASUREMENTS

Seventy-six consecutive cirrhotic patients who received mechanical ventilation were identified. Clinical and laboratory parameters were compared between ICU survivors and ICU deaths.

RESULTS

There were 45/76 (59%) patients who died during their ICU stay. By univariate analysis, the Child-Pugh score, its components (serum bilirubin, prothrombin time), ALT, creatinine concentration, a clinical suspicion of infection, and the APACHE II score, but not the acute physiology score (APS), differed significantly between ICU survivors and ICU non-survivors. The Child-Pugh score was highly correlated to ICU mortality both in logistic regression analysis and receiver-operating characteristics analysis. Conversely, markers of acute illness, in particular the APS component of the APACHE II score, did not predict ICU survival.

CONCLUSIONS

Markers of advanced chronic liver disease but not of the severity of acute illness are correlated to ICU outcome in ventilated cirrhotic patients. The outcome of advanced cases (Child-Pugh score of 12 and above) is poor.

A risk score to predict the probability of postoperative vomiting in adults

BACKGROUND

The aim of this study was to identify factors most relevant for postoperative vomiting (PV) and to develop a risk score to predict the probability of PV.

METHODS

Adult inpatients scheduled for elective ear, nose and throat (ENT) surgery under general anaesthesia were offered to participate in a prospective study for PV over 24 h. No prophylactic antiemetics were used. The data of 1137 patients were randomized and split into an evaluation set (n=553) and a validation set (n=584). The evaluation set was subjected to logistic regression analysis to quantify the relative impact of anaesthetic, surgical and individual factors and to develop a risk score. The score was then tested by applying it to the validation set. The area under a receiver operation characteristic (ROC) curve was calculated and the predicted and actual incidences of patients were correlated.

RESULTS

In the evaluation set, patient-related factors (female gender, young age, non-smoking, history of PV or motion sickness) and a high duration of anaesthesia were independent risk factors for PV. The probability of PV could be estimated from the equation: PV=1/(1+exp(-z)) where z=1.28 (gender)-0.029 (age)-0.74 x (smoking)+0.63 x (history of PV or motion sickness)+0.26 x (duration)-0.92. In the validation set this score achieved an area under the ROC-curve of 0.78 and the actual incidence correlated strongly with the predicted risks (R2=0.93, P<0.001).

CONCLUSION

The data suggest that the probability of PV following ENT surgery under inhalational anaesthesia with low-dose opioids can be predicted by a score mainly based upon patient-related risk factors.