Forced Migration: Local Conflicts and International Dilemmas

Refugees' and non-refugee migrants' regret about migration and confidence in integration: The role of forcedness and perils before and during migration

Refugees typically experience stronger migration forcedness and higher migration-related perils (harm, adversities and hardship) than do non-refugee migrants. We explored how refugees' and non-refugee migrants' perceptions of their own forcedness of migration and related perils before and during migration are associated with regret about leaving their country of origin and their confidence in integration. In two studies conducted with refugee and non-refugee migrants in Germany (total N = 336), we found correlations between perceived forcedness and premigration perils, and perils during migration, with meaningful differences between groups from different countries. Importantly, regret about migration was predicted by an interaction effect of perceived forcedness and migration perils: Perils encountered during migration increased regret about having migrated when perceived forcedness was low (vs. high). As important potential predictors of confidence in integration and regret, we also assessed discrimination experienced in the receiving society (Study 1) and resilience (Study 2). Importantly, we found that high (vs. low) perceived migration perils buffered negative effects of discrimination experienced in the host country. We discuss implications of our findings for integration in the receiving society, highlighting the role of perceived forcedness in coping with distressing experiences before and after arrival in the host country.

A generalized simulation development approach for predicting refugee destinations

In recent years, global forced displacement has reached record levels, with 22.5 million refugees worldwide. Forecasting refugee movements is important, as accurate predictions can help save refugee lives by allowing governments and NGOs to conduct a better informed allocation of humanitarian resources. Here, we propose a generalized simulation development approach to predict the destinations of refugee movements in conflict regions. In this approach, we synthesize data from UNHCR, ACLED and Bing Maps to construct agent-based simulations of refugee movements. We apply our approach to develop, run and validate refugee movement simulations set in three major African conflicts, estimating the distribution of incoming refugees across destination camps, given the expected total number of refugees in the conflict. Our simulations consistently predict more than 75% of the refugee destinations correctly after the first 12 days, and consistently outperform alternative naive forecasting techniques. Using our approach, we are also able to reproduce key trends in refugee arrival rates found in the UNHCR data.

A generalized simulation development approach for predicting refugee destinations

In recent years, global forced displacement has reached record levels, with 22.5 million refugees worldwide. Forecasting refugee movements is important, as accurate predictions can help save refugee lives by allowing governments and NGOs to conduct a better informed allocation of humanitarian resources. Here, we propose a generalized simulation development approach to predict the destinations of refugee movements in conflict regions. In this approach, we synthesize data from UNHCR, ACLED and Bing Maps to construct agent-based simulations of refugee movements. We apply our approach to develop, run and validate refugee movement simulations set in three major African conflicts, estimating the distribution of incoming refugees across destination camps, given the expected total number of refugees in the conflict. Our simulations consistently predict more than 75% of the refugee destinations correctly after the first 12 days, and consistently outperform alternative naive forecasting techniques. Using our approach, we are also able to reproduce key trends in refugee arrival rates found in the UNHCR data.

A Critical Review of the Literature: Engendering the Discourse of Masculinities Matter for Parenting African Refugee Men

According to the literature on culturally and linguistically diverse parenting, refugee parenting practices and styles that are normative in countries of origin may not be sanctioned in Australia. In the case of refugee parenting, beliefs, practices, and values may be decentered in pre-resettlement contexts where survival becomes the primary concern. Engendering the discourse of masculinities to reflect a relationship between child protection and the experience of refugee parenting for African men in both pre- and post-resettlement contexts will inform culturally competent practice, intervention, and community development that is inclusive of their gender-specific needs. This article brings an expanded masculinities perspective to the ecology of refugee parenting for resettled African men resulting from larger research findings with focus group participants. Incorporating notions of masculinity into the child protection discourse is an attempt not only to reduce existing gender under- and misrepresentation among South Australian refugees but also to ensure greater visibility and increase the role of refugee men in the process of developing culturally relevant and appropriate policies, practices, and services to assist successful resettlement transitions while strengthening family well-being. The concept of masculinities, this article argues, must be treated as integral to any approach to working with refugees, particularly in areas that penetrate and may define the quality of their life experiences, expectations, and aspirations. Masculinities matter. Exploring refugee male perceptions, interpretations, and enactment of masculinity may unmask the differential experiences of refugee women from men and ensure the integration and operationalization of these differences into child protection services and practice.

The refugee crisis in Africa and implications for health and disease: a political ecology approach

Political violence in civil war and ethnic conflicts has generated millions of refugees across the African continent with unbelievable pictures of suffering and unnecessary death. Using a political ecology framework, this paper examines the geographies of exile and refugee movements and the associated implications for re-emerging and newly emerging infectious diseases in great detail. It examines how the political ecologic circumstances underlying the refugee crisis influences health services delivery and the problems of disease and health in refugee camps. It has four main themes, namely, an examination of the geography of the refugee crisis: the disruption of health services due to political ecologic forces that produce refugees; the breeding of disease in refugee camps due to the prevailing desperation and destitution; and the creation of an optimal environment for emergence and spread of disease due to the chaotic nature of war and violence that produces refugees. We argue in this paper that there is great potential of something more virulent than cholera and Ebola emerging and taking a big toll before being identified and controlled. We conclude by noting that once such a disease is out in the public rapid diffusion despite political boundaries is likely, a fact that has a direct bearing on global health. The extensive evidence presented in this paper of the overriding role of political factors in the refugee health problem calls for political reform and peace accords, engagement and empowerment of Pan-African organizations, foreign policy changes by Western governments and greater vigilance of non-governmental organizations (NGOs) in the allocation and distribution of relief aid.