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Magnan AK, Oppenheimer M, Garschagen M, Buchanan MK, Duvat VKE, Forbes DL, Ford JD, Lambert E, Petzold J, Renaud FG, Sebesvari Z, van de Wal RSW, Hinkel J, Pörtner HO. Sea level rise risks and societal adaptation benefits in low-lying coastal areas. Sci Rep 2022; 12:10677. [PMID: 35739282 PMCID: PMC9226159 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-022-14303-w] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/03/2021] [Accepted: 06/06/2022] [Indexed: 11/16/2022] Open
Abstract
Sea level rise (SLR) will increase adaptation needs along low-lying coasts worldwide. Despite centuries of experience with coastal risk, knowledge about the effectiveness and feasibility of societal adaptation on the scale required in a warmer world remains limited. This paper contrasts end-century SLR risks under two warming and two adaptation scenarios, for four coastal settlement archetypes (Urban Atoll Islands, Arctic Communities, Large Tropical Agricultural Deltas, Resource-Rich Cities). We show that adaptation will be substantially beneficial to the continued habitability of most low-lying settlements over this century, at least until the RCP8.5 median SLR level is reached. However, diverse locations worldwide will experience adaptation limits over the course of this century, indicating situations where even ambitious adaptation cannot sufficiently offset a failure to effectively mitigate greenhouse-gas emissions.
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Affiliation(s)
- Alexandre K Magnan
- Institute for Sustainable Development and International Relations (IDDRI-Sciences Po), Paris, France. .,LIENSs Laboratory UMR7266, CNRS & University of La Rochelle, La Rochelle, France.
| | - Michael Oppenheimer
- Department of Geosciences and the School of Public and International Affairs, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA
| | - Matthias Garschagen
- Department of Geography, Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München (LMU), Munich, Germany
| | | | - Virginie K E Duvat
- LIENSs Laboratory UMR7266, CNRS & University of La Rochelle, La Rochelle, France
| | - Donald L Forbes
- Natural Resources Canada, Bedford Institute of Oceanography, Dartmouth, Canada
| | - James D Ford
- Priestley International Centre for Climate, University of Leeds, Leeds, UK
| | - Erwin Lambert
- Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research Utrecht, Utrecht University, Utrecht, The Netherlands.,Royal Netherland Meteorological Institute (KNMI), De Bilt, The Netherlands
| | - Jan Petzold
- Department of Geography, Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München (LMU), Munich, Germany.,Center for Earth System Research and Sustainability (CEN), University of Hamburg, Hamburg, Germany
| | - Fabrice G Renaud
- School of Interdisciplinary Studies, University of Glasgow, Dumfries, UK
| | - Zita Sebesvari
- Institute for Environment and Human Security, United Nations University, Bonn, Germany
| | - Roderik S W van de Wal
- Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research Utrecht, Utrecht University, Utrecht, The Netherlands.,Department of Physical Geography, Utrecht University, Utrecht, The Netherlands
| | - Jochen Hinkel
- Global Climate Forum, Berlin, Germany.,Albrecht Daniel Thaer-Institute and Berlin Workshop in Institutional Analysis of Social-Ecological Systems (WINS), Humboldt-University, Berlin, Germany
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Kolen B, Helsloot I. Decision-making and evacuation planning for flood risk management in the Netherlands. DISASTERS 2014; 38:610-635. [PMID: 24905713 DOI: 10.1111/disa.12059] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 06/03/2023]
Abstract
A traditional view of decision-making for evacuation planning is that, given an uncertain threat, there is a deterministic way of defining the best decision. In other words, there is a linear relation between threat, decision, and execution consequences. Alternatives and the impact of uncertainties are not taken into account. This study considers the 'top strategic decision-making' for mass evacuation owing to flooding in the Netherlands. It reveals that the top strategic decision-making process itself is probabilistic because of the decision-makers involved and their crisis managers (as advisers). The paper concludes that deterministic planning is not sufficient, and it recommends probabilistic planning that considers uncertainties in the decision-making process itself as well as other uncertainties, such as forecasts, citizens responses, and the capacity of infrastructure. This results in less optimistic, but more realistic, strategies and a need to pay attention to alternative strategies.
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Affiliation(s)
- Bas Kolen
- Senior Consultant Disaster and Flood Risk Management, HKV Consultants, The Netherlands
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Kolen B, Helsloot I. Time needed to evacuate the Netherlands in the event of large-scale flooding: strategies and consequences. DISASTERS 2012; 36:700-722. [PMID: 22356553 DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-7717.2012.01278.x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/31/2023]
Abstract
On 30 May 2008, the Government of the Netherlands informed the national parliament about the effectiveness of preventive evacuation of coastal and river areas in case of flooding. Analysis of a case study showed that it is impossible to evacuate coastal areas preventively within a 48-hour time span preceding a worst credible scenario flood caused by a storm surge. This fact illustrates the need for alternative evacuation strategies, such as vertical evacuation (evacuating to safe havens, inside the flood zone) or shelter-in-place (hiding), to reduce loss of life and the impact of the evacuation. This paper defines these strategies and demonstrates, by returning to the case study used by the Dutch government, that they require different measures, methods of approach, and crisis management processes. In addition, it addresses the need for flexible and scalable preparation so that after detecting and understanding the threat, authorities and citizens can make decisions about different evacuation strategies.
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Affiliation(s)
- Bas Kolen
- HKV Consultants, Botter 11 29, Lelystad, 8232JN, The Netherlands.
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Leeuw S, Vis IFA, Jonkman SN. Exploring Logistics Aspects of Flood Emergency Measures. JOURNAL OF CONTINGENCIES AND CRISIS MANAGEMENT 2012. [DOI: 10.1111/j.1468-5973.2012.00667.x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 17] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/29/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Sander Leeuw
- VU University Amsterdam; Faculty of Economics and Business; Department of Information, Logistics and Innovation; De Boelelaan 1105; 1081 HV; Amsterdam
| | - Iris F. A. Vis
- University of Groningen; Faculty of Economics and Business; Department of Operations; P.O. Box 800; 9700 AV; Groningen; Netherlands
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Lumbroso D, Vinet F. Tools to Improve the Production of Emergency Plans for Floods: Are They Being Used by the People that Need Them? JOURNAL OF CONTINGENCIES AND CRISIS MANAGEMENT 2012. [DOI: 10.1111/j.1468-5973.2012.00665.x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 18] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/30/2022]
Affiliation(s)
| | - Freddy Vinet
- Gestion des Sociétés, des Territoires et des Risques (GESTER); University of Montpellier III; Route de Mende, Cedex 5, Montpellier; France
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