Of mice and men: defining, categorizing and understanding the significance of zoonotic infections

Factors Affecting COVID-19 Outbreaks across the Globe: Role of Extreme Climate Change

The Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic poses a serious threat to global health system and economy. It was first reported in Wuhan, China, and later appeared in Central Asia, Europe, North America, and South America. The spatial COVID-19 distribution pattern highly resembles the global population distribution and international travel routes. We select 48 cities in 16 countries across 4 continents having infection counts higher than 10,000 (by 25 April 2020) as the COVID-19 epicenters. At the initial stage, daily COVID-19 counts co-varies strongly with local temperature and humidity, which are clustered within 0–10 °C and 70–95%, respectively. Later, it spreads in colder (−15 °C) and warmer (25 °C) countries, due to faster adaptability in diverse environmental conditions. We introduce a combined temperature-humidity profile, which is essential for prediction of COVID-19 cases based on environmental conditions. The COVID-19 epicenters are collocated on global CO2 emission hotspots and its distribution maximizes at 7.49 °C, which is 1.35 °C/2.44 °C higher than current (2020)/historical (1961–1990) mean. Approximately 75% of the COVID-19 cases are clustered at severe-extreme end of historical temperature distribution spectrum, which establish its tighter and possible association with extreme climate change. A strong mitigation measure is essential to abate the GHG emissions, which may reduce the probability of such pandemics in the future.

Analysis of bacterial communities associated with Mountain Chickadees (Poecile gambeli) across urban and rural habitats

Host-associated microbial communities play important roles in wildlife health, but these dynamics can be influenced by environmental factors. Urbanization has numerous effects on wildlife; however, the degree to which wildlife-associated bacterial communities and potential bacterial pathogens vary across urban-rural/native habitat gradients remains largely unknown. We used 16S rRNA gene amplicon sequencing to examine bacterial communities found on Mountain Chickadee (Poecile gambeli) feathers and nests in urban and rural habitats. The feathers and nests in urban and rural sites had similar abundances of major bacterial phyla and dominant genera with pathogenic members. However, richness of bacterial communities and potential pathogens on birds were higher in urban habitats, and potential pathogens accounted for some of the differences in bacterial occurrence between urban and rural environments. We predicted habitat using potential pathogen occurrence with a 90% success rate for feather bacteria, and a 72.2% success rate for nest bacteria, suggesting an influence of urban environments on the presence of potential pathogens. We additionally observed similarities in bacterial communities between nests and their occupants, suggesting bacterial transmission between them. These findings improve our understanding of the bacterial communities associated with urban wildlife and suggest that urbanization impacts the composition of wildlife-associated bacterial communities.

Impact of Extreme Hot Climate on COVID-19 Outbreak in India

Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic poses extreme threat to public health and economy, particularly to the nations with higher population density. The disease first reported in Wuhan, China; later, it spreads elsewhere, and currently, India emerged as COVID-19 hotspot. In India, we selected 20 densely populated cities having infection counts higher than 500 (by 15 May) as COVID-19 epicenters. Daily COVID-19 count has strong covariability with local temperature, which accounts approximately 65-85% of the explained variance; i.e., its spread depends strongly on local temperature rise prior to community transmission phase. The COVID-19 cases are clustered at temperature and humidity ranging within 27-32°C and 25-45%, respectively. We introduce a combined temperature and humidity profile, which favors rapid COVID-19 growth at the initial phase. The results are highly significant for predicting future COVID-19 outbreaks and modeling cities based on environmental conditions. On the other hand, CO2 emission is alarmingly high in South Asia (India) and entails high risk of climate change and extreme hot summer. Zoonotic viruses are sensitive to warming induced climate change; COVID-19 epicenters are collocated on CO2 emission hotspots. The COVID-19 count distribution peaks at 31.0°C, which is 1.0°C higher than current (2020) and historical (1961-1990) mean, value. Approximately, 72% of the COVID-19 cases are clustered at severe to record-breaking hot extremes of historical temperature distribution spectrum. Therefore, extreme climate change has important role in the spread of COVID-19 pandemic. Hence, a strenuous mitigation measure to abate greenhouse gas (GHG) emission is essential to avoid such pandemics in future.

Tackling wicked problems in infection prevention and control: a guideline for co-creation with stakeholders

Background

Infection prevention and control can be seen as a wicked public health problem as there is no consensus regarding problem definition and solution, multiple stakeholders with different needs and values are involved, and there is no clear end-point of the problem-solving process. Co-creation with stakeholders has been proposed as a suitable strategy to tackle wicked problems, yet little information and no clear step-by-step guide exist on how to do this. The objectives of this study were to develop a guideline to assist developers in tackling wicked problems using co-creation with stakeholders, and to apply this guideline to practice with an example case in the field of infection prevention and control.

Methods

A mixed-method approach consisting of the integration of both quantitative and qualitative research was used. Relevant stakeholders from the veterinary, human health, and public health sectors were identified using a literature scan, expert recommendations, and snowball sampling. The stakeholder salience approach was used to select key stakeholders based on 3 attributes: power, legitimacy, and urgency. Key values of stakeholders (N = 20) were derived by qualitative semi-structured interviews and quantitatively weighted and prioritized using an online survey.

Results

Our method showed that stakeholder identification and analysis are prerequisites for understanding the complex stakeholder network that characterizes wicked problems. A total of 73 stakeholders were identified of which 36 were selected as potential key stakeholders, and only one was seen as a definite stakeholder. In addition, deriving key stakeholder values is a necessity to gain insights into different problem definitions, solutions and needs stakeholders have regarding the wicked problem. Based on the methods used, we developed a step-by-step guideline for co-creation with stakeholders when tackling wicked problems.

Conclusions

The mixed-methods guideline presented here provides a systematic, transparent method to identify, analyze, and co-create with stakeholders, and to recognize and prioritize their values, problem definitions, and solutions in the context of wicked problems. This guideline consists of a general framework and although it was applied in an eHealth context, may be relevant outside of eHealth as well.