Economic modelling of antenatal screening and ultrasound scanning programmes for identification of fetal abnormalities

Impact of first-trimester anomaly scan on health-related quality of life and healthcare costs: a scoping review

IMPORTANCE

The first-trimester anomaly scan (FTAS) has the potential to detect major congenital anomalies in an early stage of pregnancy. Due to this potential early detection, there is a trend to introduce FTAS in regular care. Data regarding the impact of FTAS on the patient's perspective are limited.

OBJECTIVE

To provide an overview of the literature assessing the impact of the FTAS on health-related quality of life (HRQoL) and healthcare costs.

EVIDENCE ACQUISITION

Literature search was performed in Embase, PubMed, Medline Ovid, Cochrane Library database, Web-of-Science, and Google Scholar were searched. All studies that reported the performance of a nuchal translucency measurement with a basic fetal assessment HRQoL or healthcare costs of FTAS were included. Studies solely describing screening of chromosomal anomalies were excluded. Three authors independently screened the studies and extracted the data. Results were combined using descriptive analysis. PROSPERO registration number: CRD42016045190.

RESULTS

The search yielded 3242 articles and 16 were included. Thirteen articles (7045 pregnancies) examined the relationship between FTAS and HRQoL. Anxiety scores were raised temporarily before FTAS and returned to early pregnancy baseline following the absence of anomalies. Depression scores did not change significantly as a result of FTAS. Three articles studied healthcare costs. These studies, published before 2005, found a combination of FTAS and second-trimester anomaly scan (STAS) resulted in an increased amount of detected anomalies when compared to a STAS-only regimen. However, the combination would also be more costly.

CONCLUSIONS

Women experience anxiety in anticipation of the FTAS result and following a reassuring FTAS result, anxiety returns to the baseline level. FTAS seems to be a reassuring experience. The included studies on costs showed the addition of FTAS is likely to increase the number of detected anomalies against an increase in healthcare costs per pregnancy.Review registration: PROSPERO CRD42016045190.

Capacity and patient flow planning in post-term pregnancy outpatient clinics: a computer simulation modelling study

BACKGROUND

The demand for a large Norwegian hospital's post-term pregnancy outpatient clinic has increased substantially over the last 10 years due to changes in the hospital's catchment area and to clinical guidelines. Planning the clinic is further complicated due to the high did not attend rates as a result of women giving birth. The aim of this study is to determine the maximum number of women specified clinic configurations, combination of specified clinic resources, can feasibly serve within clinic opening times.

METHODS

A hybrid agent based discrete event simulation model of the clinic was used to evaluate alternative configurations to gain insight into clinic planning and to support decision making. Clinic configurations consisted of six factors: X0: Arrivals. X1: Arrival pattern. X2: Order of midwife and doctor consultations. X3: Number of midwives. X4: Number of doctors. X5: Number of cardiotocography (CTGs) machines. A full factorial experimental design of the six factors generated 608 configurations.

RESULTS

Each configuration was evaluated using the following measures: Y1: Arrivals. Y2: Time last woman checks out. Y3: Women's length of stay (LoS). Y4: Clinic overrun time. Y5: Midwife waiting time (WT). Y6: Doctor WT. Y7: CTG connection WT. Optimisation was used to maximise X0 with respect to the 32 combinations of X1-X5. Configuration 0a, the base case Y1 = 7 women and Y3 = 102.97 [0.21] mins. Changing the arrival pattern (X1) and the order of the midwife and doctor consultations (X2) configuration 0d, where X3, X4, X5 = 0a, Y1 = 8 woman and Y3 86.06 [0.10] mins.

CONCLUSIONS

The simulation model identified the availability of CTG machines as a bottleneck in the clinic, indicated by the WT for CTG connection effect on LoS. One additional CTG machine improved clinic performance to the same degree as an extra midwife and an extra doctor. The simulation model demonstrated significant reductions to LoS can be achieved without additional resources, by changing the clinic pathway and scheduling of appointments. A more general finding is that a simulation model can be used to identify bottlenecks, and efficient ways of restructuring an outpatient clinic.

First Trimester Combined Test (FTCT) as a Predictor of Gestational Diabetes Mellitus

Background—The first trimester combined test (FTCT) is an effective screening tool to estimate the risk of fetal aneuploidy. It is obtained by the combination of maternal age, ultrasound fetal nuchal translucency (NT) measurement, and the maternal serum markers free β-human chorionic gonadotropin (β-hCG) and pregnancy-associated plasma protein A (PAPP-A). However, conflicting data have been reported about the association of FTCT, β-hCG, or PAPP-A with the subsequent diagnosis of gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM). Research design and methods—2410 consecutive singleton pregnant women were retrospectively enrolled in Calabria, Southern Italy. All participants underwent examinations for FTCT at 11–13 weeks (plus 6 days) of gestation, and screening for GDM at 16–18 and/or 24–28 weeks of gestation, in accordance with current Italian guidelines and the International Association Diabetes Pregnancy Study Groups (IADPSG) glycemic cut-offs. Data were examined by univariate and logistic regression analyses. Results—1814 (75.3%) pregnant women were normal glucose tolerant, while 596 (24.7%) were diagnosed with GDM. Spearman univariate analysis demonstrated a correlation between FTCT values and subsequent GDM diagnosis (ρ = 0.048, p = 0.018). The logistic regression analysis showed that women with a FTCT <1:10000 had a major GDM risk (p = 0.016), similar to women with a PAPP-A <1 multiple of the expected normal median (MoM, p = 0.014). Conversely, women with β-hCG ≥2.0 MoM had a reduced risk of GDM (p = 0.014). Conclusions—Our findings indicate that GDM susceptibility increases with fetal aneuploidy risk, and that FTCT and its related maternal serum parameters can be used as early predictors of GDM.

Prenatal ultrasonography: implications for pediatric urology

Prenatal ultrasonography has become a critical and integral component of the obstetric care of women worldwide. As a result, a number of congenital anomalies are now routinely being detected prior to birth. Anomalies affecting the genitourinary system are among those most commonly detected, and thus pediatric urologists are increasingly being asked to provide parental counseling in such situations. However, much of the data needed to enhance these discussions and provide informed consent are absent from the literature. In this review, we hope to address the published literature describing the rapidly expanding role of ultrasound in prenatal care. More importantly, however, we hope to provide some insight into the manner in which prenatal ultrasound and subsequent urologic anomaly diagnosis has affected the practice of pediatric urology.

Comparison of different strategies in prenatal screening for Down's syndrome: cost effectiveness analysis of computer simulation

OBJECTIVES

To assess and compare the cost effectiveness of three different strategies for prenatal screening for Down's syndrome (integrated test, sequential screening, and contingent screenings) and to determine the most useful cut-off values for risk.

DESIGN

Computer simulations to study integrated, sequential, and contingent screening strategies with various cut-offs leading to 19 potential screening algorithms.

DATA SOURCES

The computer simulation was populated with data from the Serum Urine and Ultrasound Screening Study (SURUSS), real unit costs for healthcare interventions, and a population of 110 948 pregnancies from the province of Québec for the year 2001.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Cost effectiveness ratios, incremental cost effectiveness ratios, and screening options' outcomes.

RESULTS

The contingent screening strategy dominated all other screening options: it had the best cost effectiveness ratio ($C26,833 per case of Down's syndrome) with fewer procedure related euploid miscarriages and unnecessary terminations (respectively, 6 and 16 per 100,000 pregnancies). It also outperformed serum screening at the second trimester. In terms of the incremental cost effectiveness ratio, contingent screening was still dominant: compared with screening based on maternal age alone, the savings were $C30,963 per additional birth with Down's syndrome averted. Contingent screening was the only screening strategy that offered early reassurance to the majority of women (77.81%) in first trimester and minimised costs by limiting retesting during the second trimester (21.05%). For the contingent and sequential screening strategies, the choice of cut-off value for risk in the first trimester test significantly affected the cost effectiveness ratios (respectively, from $C26,833 to $C37,260 and from $C35,215 to $C45,314 per case of Down's syndrome), the number of procedure related euploid miscarriages (from 6 to 46 and from 6 to 45 per 100,000 pregnancies), and the number of unnecessary terminations (from 16 to 26 and from 16 to 25 per 100,000 pregnancies).

CONCLUSIONS

Contingent screening, with a first trimester cut-off value for high risk of 1 in 9, is the preferred option for prenatal screening of women for pregnancies affected by Down's syndrome.

Emerging methods in economic modeling of imaging costs and outcomes a short report on discrete event simulation

RATIONALE AND OBJECTIVES

This short report provides a non-technical overview of one emerging modeling technique, discrete event simulation (DES).

METHODS

A selective review of the literature that has applied DES methods to evaluate imaging technologies.

RESULTS

Mathematical models to evaluate the likely costs and outcomes of health technologies have become increasingly accepted. Increasing experience has also brought a mounting awareness of the limitations of conventional modeling techniques such as decision trees and Markov processes. Patient-level simulation, including DES, may provide a more flexible approach to modeling for economic evaluation of health technologies.

CONCLUSIONS

The strengths of DES suggest that it may have an increasingly important role in the future modeling of annual screening programs, diagnosis, and treatment of chronic recurrent disease and modeling the utilization of imaging equipment.