A method for estimating incidence rate of infectious diseases among first-time blood donors

Changes in the prevalence, incidence and residual risk for HIV and hepatitis C virus in Southern Brazilian blood donors since the implementation of NAT screening

INTRODUCTION

Previous studies have shown high residual risk of transfusing a blood donation contaminated by human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) or hepatitis C virus (HCV) in Brazil and motivated the development of a Brazilian platform for simultaneous detection of both viruses by nucleic acid amplification test (NAT) denominated HIV/HCV Bio-Manguinhos/Fundação Oswaldo Cruz (FIOCRUZ). The objective of this study was to verify seroprevalence, incidence and residual risk for both viruses before and after the implementation of NAT.

METHODS

Over 700,000 blood samples from all blood banks in the southern Brazilian State of Santa Catarina were analyzed during the period between January 2007 and July 2013.

RESULTS

Compared with the period preceding the NAT screening, HIV prevalence increased from 1.38 to 1.58 per 1,000 donors, HIV incidence rate increased from 1.22 to 1.35 per 1,000 donor-years, and HIV residual risk dropped almost 2.5 times during the NAT period. For HCV, seroprevalence increased from 1.22 to 1.35 per 1,000 donors, incidence dropped from 0.12 to 0.06 per 1,000 donor-years, and residual risk decreased more than 3 times after the NAT implementation.

CONCLUSIONS

NAT reduced the duration of the immunologic window for HIV and HCV, thus corresponding to approximately 2.5- and 3-fold respective residual risk reductions.

Surveillance of transfusion-transmissible infections comparison of systems in five developed countries

Most industrialized countries maintain surveillance programs for monitoring transmissible infection in blood donations, revising approaches to methodology and risk assessment as new threats emerge. A comparison of programs in the United States, Canada, France, the UK, and Australia indicates that they have similar function, although the structure of blood programs vary as does the extent and nature of formal ties with public health. The emergence of HIV in the late 1970s and early 1980s was key in recognizing that surveillance systems specific to blood transfusion were essential. Hence, most industrialized countries monitor transfusion-transmissible infections in donors and evaluate the impact of new testing and of predonation screening strategies. Emerging infections since HIV have had different transmission pathways and challenged blood programs to draw upon resources for a rapid and effective response, with recognition that the original focus on sexual/drug-related risk of HIV and hepatitis was inadequate. The focus of surveillance programs on new and emerging pathogens fulfills a key role in risk assessment and policy formulation. The precise nature of such activities varies by country because of the structure of the blood programs and surveillance systems, the strategic focus of the blood programs, and the epidemiology of disease in each country.

Evidence of intense ongoing endemic transmission of hepatitis C virus in Egypt

Egypt has the highest prevalence of antibodies to hepatitis C virus (HCV) in the world, estimated nationally at 14.7%. An estimated 9.8% are chronically infected. Numerous HCV prevalence studies in Egypt have published various estimates from different Egyptian communities, suggesting that Egypt, relative to the other nations of the world, might be experiencing intense ongoing HCV transmission. More importantly, a new national study provided an opportunity to apply established epidemiologic models to estimate incidence. Validated mathematical models for estimating incidence from age-specific prevalence were used. All previous prevalence studies of HCV in Egypt were reviewed and used to estimate incidence provided that there was sufficient age-specific data required by the models. All reports of anti-HCV antibody prevalence were much higher than any single other national estimate. Age was the strongest and most consistently associated factor to HCV prevalence and HCV RNA positivity. It was not possible to establish a prior reference point for HCV prevalence or incidence to compare with the 2009 incidence estimates. The modeled incidence from the national study and collectively from the modeled incidence from the previous community studies was 6.9/1,000 [95% confidence interval (CI), 5.5-7.4] per person per year and 6.6/1,000 (95% CI, 5.1-7.0) per person per year, respectively. Projected to the age structure of the Egyptian population, more than 500,000 new HCV infections per year were estimated. Iatrogenic transmission is the most likely, underlining exposure to the ongoing transmission. The study demonstrates the urgency to reduce HCV transmission in Egypt.

Prevalence, incidence, and residual risk of human immunodeficiency virus and hepatitis C virus infections among United States blood donors since the introduction of nucleic acid testing

BACKGROUND

Nucleic acid testing (NAT) for human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and hepatitis C virus (HCV) was introduced for blood donation screening in the United States in 1999. This study analyzes temporal trends of these two infections since NAT introduction.

STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS

Donation data from 1999 to 2008 were analyzed; each donation was tested for antibodies and viral RNA for HIV and HCV. Incidence for first-time (FT) donors was derived by multiplying that among repeat (RP) donors by the ratio of NAT yield rates between FT and RP donors. Incidence for all donors was the weighted mean based on percentage of FT and RP donors. Residual risk (RR) was determined using the window-period model.

RESULTS

During the 10-year period approximately 66 million donations were screened with 32 HIV (1:2 million) and 244 HCV (1:270,000) NAT yield donations identified. HCV prevalence among FT donors decreased by 53% for 2008 compared to 1999. HIV and HCV incidence among RP donors increased in 2007 through 2008 compared to 2005 through 2006. During 2007 through 2008, HIV incidence was 3.1 per 10(5) person-years (py), with an RR estimate of 0.68 per 10(6) (1:1,467,000) donations; HCV incidence was 5.1 per 10(5) py, with an RR estimate of 0.87 per 10(6) (1:1,149,000). The increase in HIV incidence was primarily among 16- to 19-year-old, male African American donors and that in HCV was primarily among Caucasian donors of 50 or more years. Donors from the Southern United States had higher incidence rates.

CONCLUSION

HCV prevalence decreased significantly since NAT introduction. The increase in HIV and HCV incidence in 2007 through 2008 warrants continued monitoring and investigation.