New equation for prediction of reverse remodeling after cardiac resynchronization therapy

Prognostic value of reverse remodelling criteria in heart failure with reduced or mid-range ejection fraction

Aims

Reverse remodelling (RR) is the recovery from left ventricular (LV) dilatation and dysfunction. Many arbitrary criteria for RR have been proposed. We searched the criteria with the strongest prognostic yield for the hard endpoint of cardiovascular death.

Methods and results

We performed a systematic literature search of diagnostic criteria for RR. We evaluated their prognostic significance in a cohort of 927 patients with LV ejection fraction (LVEF) < 50% undergoing two echocardiograms within 12 ± 2 months. These patients were followed for a median of 2.8 years (interquartile interval 1.3–4.9) after the second echocardiogram, recording 123 cardiovascular deaths. Two prognostic models were defined. Model 1 included age, LVEF, N‐terminal pro‐B‐type natriuretic peptide, ischaemic aetiology, cardiac resynchronization therapy, estimated glomerular filtration rate, New York Heart Association, and LV end‐systolic volume (LVESV) index, and Model 2 the validated Cardiac and Comorbid Conditions Heart Failure score. We identified 25 criteria for RR, the most used being LVESV reduction ≥15% (12 studies out of 42). In the whole cohort, two criteria proved particularly effective in risk reclassification over Model 1 and Model 2. These criteria were (i) LVEF increase >10 U and (ii) LVEF increase ≥1 category [severe (LVEF ≤ 30%), moderate (LVEF 31–40%), mild LV dysfunction (LVEF 41–55%), and normal LV function (LVEF ≥ 56%)]. The same two criteria yielded independent prognostic significance and improved risk reclassification even in patients with more severe systolic dysfunction, namely, those with LVEF < 40% or LVEF ≤ 35%. Furthermore, LVEF increase >10 U and LVEF increase ≥1 category displayed a greater prognostic value than LVESV reduction ≥15%, both in the whole cohort and in the subgroups with LVEF < 40% or LVEF ≤ 35%. For example, LVEF increase >10 U independently predicted cardiovascular death over Model 1 and LVESV reduction ≥15% (hazard ratio 0.40, 95% confidence interval 0.18–0.90, P = 0.026), while LVESV reduction ≥15% did not independently predict cardiovascular death (P = 0.112).

Conclusions

Left ventricular ejection fraction increase >10 U and LVEF increase ≥1 category are stronger predictors of cardiovascular death than the most commonly used criterion for RR, namely, LVESV reduction ≥15%.

Predictors of positive response to cardiac resynchronization therapy

BACKGROUND

Approximately 30% of patients treated with cardiac resynchronization therapy (CRT) do not achieve favourable response. The purpose of the present study was to identify echocardiographic and clinical predictors of a positive response to CRT.

METHODS

The study included 82 consecutive heart failure (HF) patients in New York Heart Association (NYHA) functional class III or IV with left bundle branch block (LBBB), QRS duration ≥ 120 ms and left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) ≤ 35%. Statistical analysis was performed using IBM SPSS statistical software (SPSS v.21.0 for Mac OS X). A p value < 0.05 was considered statistically significant.

RESULTS

Echocardiographic response was established in 81.6% and clinical response was achieved in 82.9% of patients. Significant univariate predictors of favourable echocardiographic response after 12 months were smaller left ventricular end-diastolic diameter (LVEDD) (odds ratio [OR] 0.89; 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.82 - 0.97, p = 0.01), and smaller left ventricular end-systolic diameter (LVESD) (OR 0.91; 95% CI 0.85 - 0.98, p = 0.01). Lower uric acid concentration was associated with better echocardiographic response (OR 0.99; 95% CI 0.99 - 1.0, p = 0.01). Non-ischemic HF etiology (OR 4.89; 95% CI 1.39 - 17.15, p = 0.01) independently predicted positive clinical response. Multiple stepwise regression analysis demonstrated that LVEDD lower than 75 mm (OR 5.60; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.36 - 18.61, p = 0.01) was the strongest independent predictor of favourable echocardiographic response.

CONCLUSIONS

Smaller left ventricular end-diastolic and end-systolic diameters and lower serum uric acid concentration were associated with better response to CRT. Left ventricular end-diastolic diameter and non-ischemic heart failure etiology were the strongest independent predictors of positive response to CRT.