RANDOM OFFSPRING MORTALITY AND VARIATION IN PARENTAL FITNESS

An estimator of the Opportunity for Selection that is independent of mean fitness

Variation among individuals in number of offspring (fitness, k) sets an upper limit to the evolutionary response to selection. This constraint is quantified by Crow's Opportunity for Selection (I), which is the variance in relative fitness (I = σ² _k /(u_k )² ). Crow's I has been widely used but remains controversial because it depends on mean offspring number in a sample ( k ¯ ). Here, I used a generalized Wright-Fisher model that allows for unequal probabilities of producing offspring to evaluate behavior of Crow's I and related indices under a wide range of sampling scenarios. Analytical and numerical results are congruent and show that rescaling the sample variance (s² _k ) to its expected value at a fixed k ¯ 2 removes dependence of I on mean offspring number, but the result still depends on choice of k ¯ 2 . A new index is introduced, Δ_I = Π- E(Î_drift ) = Π- 1/ k ¯ , which makes Î independent of sample k ¯ without the need for variance rescaling. Δ_I has a straightforward interpretation as the component of variance in relative fitness that exceeds that expected under a null model of random reproductive success. Δ_I can be used to directly compare estimates of the Opportunity for Selection for samples from different studies, different sexes, and different life stages.

MEASURING THE EFFECTS OF PAIRING SUCCESS, EXTRA-PAIR COPULATIONS AND MATE QUALITY ON THE OPPORTUNITY FOR SEXUAL SELECTION

Sexual selection can act through variation in the number of social mates obtained, variation in mate quality, or variation in success at obtaining extra-pair fertilizations. Because within-pair fertilizations (WPF) and extra-pair fertilizations (EPF) are alternate routes of reproduction, they are additive, rather than multiplicative, components of fitness. We present a method for partitioning total variance in reproductive success (a measure of the opportunity for selection) when fitness components are both additive and multiplicative and use it to partition the variance into components that correspond to each mechanism of sexual selection. Computer simulations show that extra-pair fertilizations can either increase or decrease total variance, depending on the covariance between within-pair and extra-pair success. Simulations also suggest that for socially monogamous species, extra-pair fertilizations have a greater effect than variation in mate quality or pairing status on the opportunity for selection. Application of our model to data gathered for a population of red-winged blackbirds (Agelaius phoeniceus) indicates that most of the variance in male reproductive success was attributable to within-pair sources of variance. Nevertheless, extra-pair copulations increased the opportunity for selection because males varied both in the proportion of their social young that they sired and in the number of extra-pair mates that they obtained. Furthermore, large and positive covariances existed between the number of extra-pair mates a male obtained and both social pairing success and within-pair paternity, indicating that, in this population, males preferred as social mates also were preferred as extra-pair mates.

Environmental, parental and adaptive variation in egg size of Tengmalm's owls under fluctuating food conditions

We studied egg size variation of Tengmalm's owls in western Finland during 1981-1990. The owls fed on voles whose population fluctuated in a predictable manner: low (1981, 1984, 1987, 1990), increase (1982, 1985, 1988) and peak (1983, 1986, 1986) phases of the cycle occurred every third year. Eggs were largest in the increase phase of the vole cycle, even though that voles were more abundant and egg-laying started earlier in the peak phase than in the increase phase. This suggests that owls invest mostly in egg size when vole abundance increases along with survival chances of offspring. Territory quality and female age had no effects on egg size, but egg size decreased with laying data in the increase phase of the vole cycle. Egg size was significantly positively related to the male age in the increase phase, but the opposite relationship was significant in the peak phase of the vole cycle. The partners of adult males also decreased their egg volume from the increase to the peak phase, whereas the partners of yearling males produced their largest eggs in the peak phase of the vole cycle. This suggests the importance of experience in prevailing food fluctuations. Possibly male Tengmalm's owls can adjust the intensity of courtship feeding not only in relation to the food abundance on their territories at the time of egg laying, but also to the survival prospects of their offspring. Phenotypic plasticity seems to play a substantial role, as the egg size repeatabilities of individual females and partners of individual males were low. Obviously, under cyclic food conditions, predictability and inter-generational trade-offs are important to life history traits.