Doubling time of flat and polypoid colorectal neoplasms: defining the adenoma-carcinoma sequence

Predicting colorectal cancer risk from adenoma detection via a two-type branching process model

Despite advances in the modeling and understanding of colorectal cancer development, the dynamics of the progression from benign adenomatous polyp to colorectal carcinoma are still not fully resolved. To take advantage of adenoma size and prevalence data in the National Endoscopic Database of the Clinical Outcomes Research Initiative (CORI) as well as colorectal cancer incidence and size data from the Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) database, we construct a two-type branching process model with compartments representing adenoma and carcinoma cells. To perform parameter inference we present a new large-size approximation to the size distribution of the cancer compartment and validate our approach on simulated data. By fitting the model to the CORI and SEER data, we learn biologically relevant parameters, including the transition rate from adenoma to cancer. The inferred parameters allow us to predict the individualized risk of the presence of cancer cells for each screened patient. We provide a web application which allows the user to calculate these individual probabilities at https://ccrc-eth.shinyapps.io/CCRC/. For example, we find a 1 in 100 chance of cancer given the presence of an adenoma between 10 and 20mm size in an average risk patient at age 50. We show that our two-type branching process model recapitulates the early growth dynamics of colon adenomas and cancers and can recover epidemiological trends such as adenoma prevalence and cancer incidence while remaining mathematically and computationally tractable.

Colorectal cancer is a major public health burden. The development of colorectal cancer starts with the mutational initiation of non-cancerous growths in the form of benign adenomatous polyps. These adenomas grow over time with the potential to develop into carcinomas. Many mathematical and simulation-based models have been used to gain insight into this process. We aimed to understand rates of adenoma growth and transition into carcinomas, to enable better planning of colorectal cancer screening strategies. To this end, we expand the two-type branching process model, and fit it on data describing the frequency of sizes of adenomas and carcinomas. The results provide new, data-based, estimates of the rates of development for colorectal cancer.

ACR Colon Cancer Committee white paper: status of CT colonography 2009

PURPOSE

To review the current status and rationale of the updated ACR practice guidelines for CT colonography (CTC).

METHODS

Clinical validation trials in both the United States and Europe are reviewed. Key technical aspects of the CTC examination are emphasized, including low-dose protocols, proper insufflation, and bowel preparation. Important issues of implementation are discussed, including training and certification, definition of the target lesion, reporting of colonic and extracolonic findings, quality metrics, reimbursement, and cost-effectiveness.

RESULTS

Successful validation trials in screening cohorts both in the United States with ACRIN and in Germany demonstrated sensitivity > or = 90% for patients with polyps >10 mm. Proper technique is critical, including low-dose techniques in screening cohorts, with an upper limit of the CT dose index by volume of 12.5 mGy per examination. Training new readers includes the requirement of interactive workstation training with 2-D and 3-D image display techniques. The target lesion is defined as a polyp > or = 6 mm, consistent with the American Cancer Society joint guidelines. Five quality metrics have been defined for CTC, with pilot data entered. Although the CMS national noncoverage decision in May 2009 was a disappointment, multiple third-party payers are reimbursing for screening CTC. Cost-effective modeling has shown CTC to be a dominant strategy, including in a Medicare cohort.

CONCLUSION

Supported by third-party payer reimbursement for screening, CTC will continue to further transition into community practice and can provide an important adjunctive examination for colorectal screening.

Screening and surveillance for the early detection of colorectal cancer and adenomatous polyps, 2008: a joint guideline from the American Cancer Society, the US Multi-Society Task Force on Colorectal Cancer, and the American College of Radiology

In the United States, colorectal cancer (CRC) is the third most common cancer diagnosed among men and women and the second leading cause of death from cancer. CRC largely can be prevented by the detection and removal of adenomatous polyps, and survival is significantly better when CRC is diagnosed while still localized. In 2006 to 2007, the American Cancer Society, the US Multi-Society Task Force on Colorectal Cancer, and the American College of Radiology came together to develop consensus guidelines for the detection of adenomatous polyps and CRC in asymptomatic average-risk adults. In this update of each organization's guidelines, screening tests are grouped into those that primarily detect cancer early and those that can detect cancer early and also can detect adenomatous polyps, thus providing a greater potential for prevention through polypectomy. When possible, clinicians should make patients aware of the full range of screening options, but at a minimum they should be prepared to offer patients a choice between a screening test that primarily is effective at early cancer detection and a screening test that is effective at both early cancer detection and cancer prevention through the detection and removal of polyps. It is the strong opinion of these 3 organizations that colon cancer prevention should be the primary goal of screening.

Computed tomographic colonography: comparison of two workstations

PURPOSE

To compare two commercially available computed tomography (CT) colonography systems with respect to interobserver variability, the influence of level of expertise, and the gradual reduction of reviewing time for each system.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

Two residents and two radiologists using Siemens CTAPP Colography software and Viatronix V3D-Colon software reviewed supine and prone CT acquisitions from 24 patients in a primary 3D endoluminal view. The observers graded each case with respect to technical quality and diagnostic value, assessed the presence of pathology, and indicated the time spent on the viewing.

RESULTS

Significant differences were found in technical quality (P < 0.001) and diagnostic value (P<0.001) depending on which system was used, with higher scores for the Viatronix software. The agreement between specialists tended to be higher than that between residents (kappa=0.63 (0.30-0.95) vs. kappa=0.51 (0.21-0.81)), and the residents gave significantly (P < 0.001) higher scores of technical quality. However, the level of expertise had no significant impact on the assessments. We noted extensive variability in pathological lesions found by the different observers. The number of findings did not differ between workstations, but the viewers tended to report larger polyp sizes with the Viatronix software. The time needed for viewing decreased significantly from the first to the last examination viewed by each observer.

CONCLUSION

Both the evaluated systems present trustworthy images of the human colon, but in a primary 3D setting the Viatronix software is favored owing to the user-friendly interface, higher experienced technical quality, and better diagnostic value.

Flat colorectal lesions in asymptomatic adults: implications for screening with CT virtual colonoscopy

OBJECTIVE

The clinical significance of flat lesions in colorectal cancer screening remains uncertain. The purpose of this study was to investigate the frequency, histology, and virtual colonoscopy detection of flat lesions in an asymptomatic screening population.

SUBJECTS AND METHODS

The morphology of all detected polyps was prospectively recorded as flat or polypoid (sessile or pedunculated) in 1,233 consecutive asymptomatic adults who underwent same-day virtual colonoscopy and optical colonoscopy. A flat morphology was defined as a shallow plaquelike broad-based lesion with a height of less than one half of its width.

RESULTS

Of 344 polyps of 6 mm or greater confirmed at optical colonoscopy, 17 (4.9%) were labeled as flat at both virtual colonoscopy and optical colonoscopy; 17 (4.9%), at optical colonoscopy only; and 25 (7.3%), at virtual colonoscopy only, yielding 59 total lesions in 52 (4.2%) of 1,233 patients. Twenty-nine (49.2%) of 59 flat lesions were adenomatous, of which four measured 10 mm or greater and one 6- to 9-mm lesion was histologically advanced. None of the 148 diminutive flat lesions (< or = 5 mm) detected at optical colonoscopy was histologically advanced. Virtual colonoscopy prospectively detected 24 (82.8%) of 29 flat adenomas and 47 (80.0%) of all 59 flat lesions 6 mm or greater. In comparison, the sensitivity of virtual colonoscopy for the detection of polypoid adenomas and all polypoid lesions of 6 mm or greater was 86.2% (156/181, p = 0.58) and 81.0% (231/285, p = 0.86), respectively.

CONCLUSION

Flat adenomas measuring 6 mm or greater are uncommon in a typical Western screening population, and advanced flat neoplasms are rare. The sensitivity of virtual colonoscopy for detecting flat lesions was similar to that of polypoid lesions. These results indicate that flat lesions are not a significant drawback for virtual colonoscopy screening.

Computerized tomography colonography

First introduced a decade ago, computerized tomography (CT) colonography (virtual colonoscopy) is emerging as an important radiologic investigation for colorectal neoplasia, with diagnostic performance likely exceeding barium enema and comparable with optical colonoscopy. Employing state-of-the-art multislice technology, CT colonography allows a complete examination of the colon and surrounding organs in less than 30 seconds. This article reviews current techniques, indications, comparison with existing technologies, and diagnostic performance. Although already widely disseminated, important future developments, such as prepless bowel cleansing (laxative free) and computer-aided diagnosis, may establish CT colonography as the preferred first-line, whole-colon investigation.